Mystery Guest

Bravo this philosophy will serve you well in life ! I work in an industry with low renumeration. for many years I followed your perscribed path. I have used the Smith Maneuver as you have described ... and been building a portfolio for years. Fairfax has been a core holding for 20 years. like you, i perceive risk differently, risk only exists where you are not doing the math and worst case plan.(margin of safety) Today I. showed the wife the accounts, she said "that's too much, more than we need" not actually huge, but enough that retirement is covered for all possibilities with a wide margin of safety. What i am saying is have this frugal and analytical bent is more important than picking the right horse . The highest risk is not having a big picture plan.

Does he still have his " CAD 1,180 fair value estimate" from May? if he's selling at that price we are all buying

I am in this camp. Been a shareholder since before the first Short attack. Backed up the truck back then. Then backed up the truck again during the pandemic. I have a substantial core position which I have been told has "CONCENTRATION RISK" so at some point I will have to sell down to a "reduced risk" position. On the other hand after this many years I see the key risk as missing out on this 18 bagger turning into a 100 bagger. I actually don't care about the quoted price, as long as they keep hitting their targets I am ok with Lumpy Results. I will also say I am finally understanding Buffett's claim that the best holding period is FOREVER ... my original shares bought at $100 are now spitting out $200+ in earnings annually. Why would one disturb that unless one were to see other dollars for sale for 50 cents or less. I would also be ok with a 50% reduction in the quoted price, unless Prem actually raided the Church Kitty and left town. Cheers

This what you get with auto generated AI news. each shift in a single stat generates a comment not an analysis Cheers

yes and NO ... it's a good starting screen... you could do ok buying the dogs of the index. 'you don't have to put a man on the scales to know he's fat' you are looking for a good business that has consistent high earnings ... you are looking to buy these earnings at a low price, the lower your cost basis the more explosive the long term compounding. you can simplify Fairfax based on their own objective: OBJECTIVES: 1) We expect to compound our mark-to-market book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees, shareholders and the communities where we operate – at the expense of short term profits if necessary. If you accept that they will meet this objective in some way or other over a long period. your goal would to be buy shares at or under book value baking that return into your portfolio. if you buy your shares at .75 of book ... you are theoretically capturing a 20% return on your investment... ...and hang on as long as that objective continues to be met in a reasonable manner

last night at a bar b Q i sat next to an 82 year old retiree who has his entire portfolio on a spreadsheet on his phone ... "see this the dip 97, my broker wanted me to sell ...I told him buy ! and had to convince him ... " you make your money buying on the dips ... you can explain this to everybody who needs to know ...but only some of them get it ...

This is Brilliant... trading price is only relevant to the question; can I capture a bigger revenue stream with my hard earned dollar than my current position

With the stock over $1600 Canadian again it is worth reminding ourselves of a couple of things: its not the share price that counts as much as the look through earnings and long term capital allocation. I have held my shares for many years and added when the pricing seemed crazy low, and I had funds available. I have no plans to sell any shares, at times holding on has been somewhat painful! I too have been wondering about the Sleep Country Purchase ... Having Just Read The Outsiders (thorndike) If you have not read it, I think it sheds lots of Light on the hidden Fairfax master plan ... Most of these CEOs were frugal and financially oriented enough to be able to pivot to an opportunity no one else saw but in hindsight was brilliant. I will share some thoughts I would rather see buy backs... my .02 we are not seeing the full Sleep picture I would speculate that they are working Recipe MK2.... They are looking to acquire brilliant operational talent in scalable businesses and build that way. Look at the Talent Pool Now Running the subs and operations. They will assemble a portfolio of Home oriented businesses. We would like to see them hold a Brilliant business forever but if the assembled package can be used as currency down the Road ... then they spin off... They will be accused of having NO MOAT, are under appreciated, and underpriced and we will all get a chance to absorb more shares. I do not think I have attended an AGM where Prem has not mentioned Henry Singleton.

Over time we have added good chunks of Shares during Hurricane season, probably ones best buying opportunity next to a short attack... Neither scenario is pretty, but not all opportunities are. Buy on sale, hold as close to forever as circumstances allow. I will now return to lurking, and awaiting Vikings Next Brilliant Post.

Long time Lurker