coffeecaninvestor

He was buying back Berkshire stock

I don't think that is necessarily true. Cash as a % of Assets or Equity didn't really start increasing significantly until 2024. Berkshire will likely never have no cash on hand, and not want to rely on debt when shit hits the fan. He is also dealing with different limitations, and situations than the average investor, so I don't really fault him for being early. He can't blow out of positions quickly. I think it has turned out alright BRK is up 134% VS S&P 91% over the past 5 years according to google.

My guess is he doesn’t care if he loses purchasing power over a 2-3 year period if he thinks he will have an opportunity to buy great businesses at a cheaper prices.. he’s probably more worried about return of capital over return on capital. My guess is he isn’t planning on holding $300+ billion in t-bills forever. Listen to last years AGM he basically walks you through his thought process.

Yeah they have a feature you can create your own ETF for $5/month. Not a bad way to go about it.

I’ve largely stayed away from most of these sectors (reits, data providers, software, healthcare) so haven’t had the confidence to buy any of them, but I was thinking of a diversified basket approach and just DCA in slowly.

Sold NGG and put some of it to work into CPRT, RTO, AMRZ, BRO, BAH, MMC, OTCM, NVR, LOW

I does seem like they can raise rates reasonably, but probably not sharply. A utility reminds me a lot of a house. You lay out a ton of cash to build it with fixed rate long term debt, and then you just basically have to maintain it after that. This strikes me as an OK asset during lower inflationary times. Asset light is the way to go if you can find one cheap enough. but I’ve thought more about the poor management. Particularly because of Vicky at OXY and how she’s destroying value there. It’s probably not wise to bet on national grids management has proven they can run a monopoly poorly how well should I expect them to do this massive buildout.

I don’t really like utilities per se it just seems like way to hedge some of the inflation risk I was taking with ST treasury bonds, and still get market like returns on if everything works out with.limited down side risk. Thanks I will look at AEP! I’m sure the existing share holders were pissed at the rights issue and dividend cut. Half the business in the UK is a little worry some to with the currency risk. I started a small position a few days ago in AMRZ after taking a look. it looks very interesting. BAH and NVO as well.

I am hoping the change in CEO helps but yes the stock has been poor. I don’t follow utilities much but this struck me as an odd ball utility since it is an ADR with a large US monopoly so probably not on too many investors radar, but has this huge growth capex coming. So yes it did a big rights offering and raised some debt, but they should get a regulated return on that investment. If it wasn’t for this potential growth I probably wouldn’t have invested, but there’s some upside there now that doesn’t seem to be factored into its current multiple. But I could be dead wrong and hopefully the downside is limited.

I’m treating it more as an alternative to putting cash SGOV which i already own a good amount of. Dividend is about equal but you have inflation protection. They are investing a ton into the grid going forward so over time earnings should grow. Trades at a slight discount to XLU so possibly could re-rate if they execute and things go in its favor. I don’t have a ton of ideas and I pulled money from S&P500 for this idea so I preferred it over the S&P at current prices.

The biggest complaints around me are about housing. Had one person in IT get laid off. I work for a large health insurance company dealing with middle market size businesses.. They are hurting badly, we have had a much larger number and much higher renewals that must be squeezing the bottom line. It's not only us, but we have been seeing it on the new business side as well.

NGG

Just purchased as well. Thanks for putting it on my radar.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-morgan-housel-podcast/id1675310669?i=1000726557635 really good podcast that addresses this that everyone should probably listen to before entering this thread

added to JOE, OMC, NVR, CNC. Started position in GOOGL, MTD, EW,

I had 3 purchases, and it ended up being 15% of my networth. I like the stock still the sale was purely just a way to get it so I can look at things clearly again. I have always struggled to average in. Then end up regretting it. Apparently I need to learn the lesson again.

I made a mistake sizing my bet on RTO (too large to fast). It took a few weeks of writing in my journal reflecting about it to realize it was impacting my day to day thoughts in a negative way. So I sold it down at ~7-8% loss to a much more moderate allocation.

Added to MGM, starter in OMC & NVR.

CNC and MGM

I heard about it on just about all value investing podcasts or letters. Smead capital just put it in their latest letter. I am always skeptical about the opportunities with the most consensus that are constantly touted.

I was recently debating what to do as well. Having the concentration of risk in the S&P was bothering me. I diversified globally, and added some cash/bonds to hedge against any psychological risk of me selling. I think an easy step for the average person would be to trade out of the S&P 500 ETF into something like VT, and have 10-20% short term bonds.

Yeah it’s a starter, I think it’s trading at a fair but not cheap price.

Started a position in LMT for a family account that I am managing. Hoping it gets cheaper.

If you wait for things to be all clear then the real opportunity will likely be missed. I think the margin of safety is the best I can find with this high of quality business that is relatively simple. They have a good position in a good industry, and if I had to bet (which I am) I think it will likely be the same or better 5-10 years out. I can underwrite a few crappy years up front and still come out with a decent return with no multiple expansion. I'm trying to not over think it since that leads to sucking my thumb and doing nothing. Similar to what I see happening in the JOE thread (you can lump me in the over analyzing JOE group), I was hoping it get to a price where I wouldn’t have to over analyze things so much.

More RTO