coffeecaninvestor

I agree a lot with this I think companies with large data sets are likely AI winners which is why I think healthcare companies will benefit a lot from AI. I also think PGR is in a similar situation with their data. I also think self driving is going to take generations to become the standard rather than a feature. I think driving is engrained in people and it will take awhile for it to change. Personally I’d use it similar to how I use cruise control now on long trips never local driving. But I have a car now that I won’t sell for a decade unless they gave me a mind numbing trade in value to buy a FSD car. I also think new cars are too expensive for the average American so unless we let BYD sell in America it will be slow. I think it’s exciting tech but I am skeptical. I also think great companies with great mgmt adapt and don’t sit just letting things happen to them. I am sure PGR is thinking about these challenges. Similar to how I am sure ADBE is come up with ways to beat AI and Figma. It doesn’t mean they will be successful but until it shows up in the financials I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. If you’re always buying with the picture is the clearest you will never get earnings and multiple expansion which gives you the big home runs.

Makes me scratch my head why Buffett is still adding to CVX and OXY in Q1&2. I took a look at CVX/XOM and it’s hard to get excited about them without higher oil which looks improbable. I was listening to a podcast and the guy was going big into oil stocks partly because they are hated but as a political hedge. I don’t know it just seems like oil has too much working against it.

Probably exaggerated in both directions.. 10% rev growth much of it recurring, 89% gross margins, 39% FCF margins, very little debt, 23% ROA, 37% ROIC, with a large buyback trading at 19x TTM EPS, 14x FCF does not seem right either. I am probably wrong since I've rarely owned software due to the high multiples, but that's why I don't hold a concentrated position. I think a lot of it is psychological and reactionary at this point. I think most large organizations are taking a slow measured approach to AI so I think ADBE mgmt will have time to combat the AI problem.

I was at ~40% of cash as of late last year and adding rapidly due to savings. I'd prefer to be in the 10% range. I've been buying and think are still at cheap prices PYPL, CPRT, CNSWF, BRO, ADBE, PAYX, BAH, SYY, CHD, CP, UNH, ELV, FND, ACN, STZ, AJG, ODFL. Kind of lucky that some quality compounders have gotten taken out to the wood shed lately. NTDOY, APO, DOCS, MOH, PGR are getting more attractive, but are just on my watchlist. XOM looks to me like it could make a move higher.. so I might spend some time looking at oil companies. It doesn't strike me as particularly cheap, but they haven't done much in the last 4-5 years so maybe it is time.

FRFHF

Not sure how many people have read “Think and Grow Rich”, but having a master mind group is high valuable to highly successful people. As someone who has always relied on himself it is hard to come around to the idea of relying on other’s knowledge, but over the past 2 years of being on this forum it has made me realize it is a very valuable asset. Especially not doing investing full time with a day job and family.

You're right, and the fact is I've known these guys my whole life, but we diverged in life about a decade ago. I've had to find other outlets with more in common, which is why I'm thankful for CoB&F, as it's hard to find others locally with similar interests. I don't feel guilt-tripped into buying. I've been considering it for a while, and I like the company in its current form. It's more of a psychological thing for me, buying at all-time highs when everyone seems bullish. But the Fairfax board is phenomenal, and listening to the "Know Your Risk" podcast on Fairfax really summarized things nicely. Oddly, my wife's good friend's husband started working at Fairfax probably 6-7 years ago. I knew about the company and told him he should read up on his company and its CEO. I should have bought then. I agree this is a good exercise, but I have made 3 mistakes in the past when evaluating my portfolio. Trimming or selling winners, and holding my losers. Focusing on price too much, and less on fundamentals. Making quick decision to turnover my portfolio too much rather than sticking with a strategy/plan/thesis. Going forward this is an area I am going to work on.

I think it’s a personal choice and never feel pressured into doing something others do. Personally I find traveling anxiety producing. If you told me I’d have to go travel 4-5 times a year to different destinations I’d pass. Once in a while sure that’s fine. But I’m much more a home body, and my ideal vacation is drivable rather than flying and low key.

I've never shared my net-worth with anyone other than my wife. I hinted that our home was paid for to one of my friends drunk one night, and they were in shock, what I didn't share is that our home is probably less than a third of our net-worth. The funny thing is we were never high earners just worked normal jobs and didn't inherit anything. Just busted our ass, sometimes worked 2 jobs, picked up OT, didn't go out and have $300 bar tabs when we were just out of college. Basically just saved an above average of our income, and was interested in investing since I was 16 years old. They made fun of me recently because my brand new 2024 corolla didn't have an automatic start. I paid for my car in cash, and didn't blink, yet they are financing the sofa to their home. It was an early decision in my life to be a millionaire by 40, and I greatly exceeded, thanks to the bull market of the last 10-15 years, but also thanks to learning early on about compound interest over a long duration can lead to great things.

I looked at NKE again this week.. I think it’s telling when you look how pathetic the insider buying has been.

Good question, maybe I’ll buy a little on Monday just to loosen up to the idea to buying even more later. I have some BRK tucked away in an account that I ignore I’ll do the same for Fairfax.

It’s on my watch list. I was close to pulling the trigger at $1600-$1500 range but then it took off. It also seems like a lot of people got in Fairfax prior to this run up when it was trading below BVPS, at 1.3x it is a little tougher decision for me. It wasn't on my radar then since I only got a COB&F membership less than 2 years ago. This could and probably is a mistake, but I will be patient, and wait for an opportunity to buy,

I turned my portfolio over this year after going too concentrated too quickly into positions. (I had big positions for me in JNJ and got frustrated before the run up and sold, and went to aggressive RTO and should have averaged in more slowly so I didn’t get anxious when it fell and could buy more). The plan is to hold 20-25 positions equal weight at cost so I can sleep better. I only have 3 full positions the rest are around 1/2 positions and I am dollar cost averaging into those weekly. ACN ADBE AJG AMRZ - full position BAH BRO CHD CNSWF - full position CP CPRT ELV FND KRE ODFL PYPL PAYX RTO - full position STZ SYY UNF UNH

I think a company like ADBE could rip higher next year if sentiment changes l. PYPL as well but those are probably my two lowest confidence positions. theres a lot of cheap healthcare stocks as well but that could be a slow grind as the reprice and get things turned around.

I’ve owned OTCM on and off for the past 8 years or so. Great business but CEO is conservative with capital allocation (debt leverage and buybacks) which I think limits the potential upside in a stock like this. Overall growth has slowed which is why it hasn’t moved the last 5 years, but their revenue growth tends to jump around with more speculative trading activity. I think at 21x earnings they are at their historic median so not super cheap or expensive. Growth has picked up last 2 Q’s so if earnings get back to double digit growth it’s probably a decent bet. I was playing it as a way of playing growth in international trading.. I thought if internal stocks continued to outperform that ADR trading would increase, and that might be more sustainable source of growth. They also made an acquisition of EDGAR which I think also might have been partly why the stock has been flat around concerns of integration.

Do you have a link? I didn’t see it listed on the IR website.

More adjustments to price targets rolling in. I’ve been continuing to add to both BRO and AJG weekly

ADBE not sure if this is the bottom but it didn’t sell off huge after earnings.. hopefully they don’t make any stupid acquisitions.

Could it have been Greg's plan all along to move on from either Todd or Ted based on their performance and fit within Berkshire. It just seems like having two people manage the portfolio wouldn't be optimal since I doubt one would have wanted to take a back seat to the other. The top 5 positions in the portfolio has been pretty uneventful since the Apple purchase.. It will be interesting to see Todd put his stamp on the portfolio, and see how he manages things. I think things have been so opaque with T&T that it is impossible to judge or critique any of them.

I I don’t expect exciting returns, but they are projecting 8% eps growth and 1.5% dividend you get a fairly low risk 9-10% return. they have done pretty well with M&A and I think they are currently underlevered so could be some upside there. Up until the last year relative to the S&P they have had pretty darn good returns.

Started positions in AJG, UNF, and CHD over the last week. Took another look at AJG, and decided to pull the trigger. Listened to the latest Q of all the big brokers and just came away impressed with the Gallagher guys. UNF hoping the activist can make some change.

I think the one thing I learned this year is watch out when the market turns on high multiple stocks. AJG trades a premium multiples so hopefully the down grades keep coming! It's tough I really want to buy, but am holding off hoping it drops further.

PYPL isn’t my favorite out of those 4 in terms of the business it’s hard to know what their future is going to look like, but it has a lot of the characteristics I like to look for in terms of valuation, buy back, growth, and balance sheet.

Over the last few weeks I have started and added to quite a few positions since I was sitting on twice as much cash as I would like. The following positions are 1/4 starter position that I am DCA weekly over the next 6 months ACN, BAH, BRO, CSU, CP, CPRT, ELV, FND, KRE (ETF), ODFL, PAYX, PYPL, STZ, SYY, UNH. I am at a full 5% position on AMRZ and RTO.

+1 BRO & MMC