Masterofnone

10.4% 22.1 million full and part time. BUT ONLY 1.2% working directly on farms. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/

19%- still a lot.

+1 also you might check out David Waters: https://alluvialcapital.com/

Illegal immigration peaked in 2007 (GW Bush). https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/

+1 Cracking down on illegals is position not policy. Too many sectors would come screeching to a halt. Anywhere where the work is hard and conditions suck. Immigrant labor has historically always done this work- railroads, textiles, mining etc. There has always been resentment and bigotry- worse for those whose skin wasn't white. Dagos, Pollacks, Micks, Gooks and Chinks. And Wetback. But cheap labor has always been an engine of this country's growth and prosperity.

Also trimmed PCYO. Seems like a more enthusiastic market reaction than warranted by the results. (And that massive 150k buyback.....)

Think about what you just wrote. Is that truly how you would act if you found the cure for cancer?

Likewise, will not sell. Don't have any ideas of anything as good with current valuations.

But there is buying now in anticipation of that demand, with the intent to sell into the mandated adds.

It is a turn of phrase, but to me, the "trap" is money insulates some from the realities of experience and blunts compassion and empathy.

My crystal ball is always cloudy, but I agree with Sleepydragon. There seems to be jockeying around any index add well in advance and price action rarely exceeds 7% intra-day and often fades. A portion of every day's price action for the past month or two has likely had a component of odds making on an index add. If I had to guess, I would expect a 4-5% jump near open with a 2-3% gain overall. There is buying now with the intent to fill the needs of the indexers in the future. Now if there isn't an addition, the price will likely drop significantly.

I'm too lazy to do the exact cost averaging between all the lots, but the original shares from 2000 are ~11.3% (vs ~7.9% from the S&P) and for example shares purchased late January 2021 come in at about 22% vs ~15% from the S&P over the same time-frame. I purchased many many times over the years when the shares became cheap. (Know what you own.)

I have been riding on the Berkshire train for 25 plus years, holding through ups and downs. It has always been a huge percentage of my total investments, and buying over the years on selloffs and holding has resulted in returns about 3.5% above the S&P 500. The only shares sold during this time were those required after recently placing our first taxable shares purchased in a charitable remainder trust. In the past few weeks, I've been selling off Berkshire in IRA accounts. Lowest cost basis $32.xx. Is it an attempt at market timing? To be honest with myself, I would have to answer yes, remembering the period between early 2008 and 2009. But now gliding through my 7th decade and financially secure, I no longer feel the need to be fully invested. Is Berkshire ever likely to be priced at 2x book again? Who can say? But My guess is 1.3 is more likely. Disclosure: I'm a mediocre trader as proven over a long time period.

There seems to me to be only two possible reasons the old fellow is raising so much cash: A huge purchase (think Mars) or a conviction that the odds are good for a substantial "correction" in the markets. He doesn't like to buy things when prices are dear, so my odds-making would be that he is substantially pessimistic about where markets are headed. Any thoughts?

What a gift it was that Muddy Waters issued that shoddy slash and run report! It was a great example of the value of knowing what you own. Many of us picked up shares that day on the cheap. +46% or so in about 9 months. Thanks Carson!