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racemize

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Everything posted by racemize

  1. I wish I could get a PDF of it, but I'm not seeing a good way.
  2. I added this to my Munger compilation, in case people are interested: https://www.dropbox.com/s/d9o5gk2hsy594dr/Munger.pdf?dl=0
  3. Here's my current version of the compilation: https://www.dropbox.com/s/f61hyafkxwpre86/Leucadia.pdf?dl=0
  4. I've been tracking mine for a while. One thing I like to do is compare the net-after tax income with the amount of asset change I have in a year. Initially, it was a savings rate, but since most of my assets go up on their own, it has become a weird hybrid measure. I've been over 100% for a few years now (helped a lot by investment returns).
  5. [amazonsearch]Inefficient Market Theory: An Investment Framework Based on the Foolishness of the Crowd[/amazonsearch] Hi All, my friend and partner has just published his book, which he's been working on for the past year or so. He's a bit of a lurker on the forum, and I thought I'd post it for him. Here's a link to the book: Summary:
  6. Although not as deep as Dead Poet's Society, this one always had a big impact on me: (Warning: out of order) I'll never listen to A Beautiful World the same again after that movie.
  7. Can you give an example of your deposit adjustment? I'm not wknecht but a typical way to calculate deposit premium is as follows: Cost of FHLB borrowing minus deposit cost to get the spread. You calculate that forward 4-5 years and discount it back at the 10yr treasury rate. That's in effect the deposit premium one should pay for the bank franchise. In a transaction this deposit premium is usually called out in a news release. You take the premium paid over book and divide it by deposits and you have the deposit premium. So, the adjustment he was referring to would be up from book value using the premium?
  8. I have a question regarding this, I've heard 10% thrown around often. But when I look at the average or mean for all banking indexes (KBW/Dow/NASDAQ/others) the average ROE is between 8-9% and ROA less than 1%. The indexes are biased towards larger banks, if we looked at all banks in the us the average ROE is 7% and ROA is .84%. My question is where does 10% come from? Is that what a bank should earn in some normalized environment? A bank earning 10% ROE is in the top 1/3rd of banks in the US, which is better than middling along. Anyways curious about the 10% number, that seems to be the anchor metric in many people's minds, I was wondering where it comes from. Well, perhaps I am misinformed, but I thought it was a decent estimate of long term averages. Moreover, if great banks can make ~20%, I would imagine banks without any huge issues could make half of it.
  9. I tend to use Tangible book value as an indicator of potential earnings power. e.g., with C/BofA, a mediocre or average bank should be able to make >10% (e.g., 15% or more, really) on tangible book, so buying near tangible or below should provide upside, presuming they can return to average banking ability.
  10. Is there anything new in the talk, or asked another way, say we have seen the last say 15 videos, is it mostly rehash?
  11. Do you know of any place I can go to look at other countries, which show the distribution CAGR in the same way as above? That would be interesting to see. Moreover, I guess the question turns into, is it likely that the U.S. will not act as it has in the past? And if so, how likely? Taking a particular case, the lowest returns was investing at the peak of 1929--how much worse should be expected?
  12. Other than the arithmetic average versus geometric point, I'm not sure I understand either what he is saying or the use of what he is saying. e.g., if you take actual returns over the history of the S&P over 25 years, the complete data are (from the distribution of CAGR for rolling 25 year periods from 1871-2013 (where the rolls are performed monthly)): Minimum - 3.79% Maximum - 17.08% Average - 9.36% Median - 8.71% There were no negative returns. This data seems more useful than what the article posits, to me. Perhaps I am missing something, however? FYI, there are no negative returns after 15 year rolling periods, and even at 15, the minimum is -0.3%.
  13. I'm reading the book "Search Inside Yourself", which I have found to be quite good (mindfulness meditation/emotional intelligence0. The course is available online at: http://www.siyli.org/ I haven't watched the videos yet, but plan on it once I get through with the book.
  14. Is there a paper or article that you would recommend for Ellis?
  15. There may be quite a few of us that have technical degrees, but aren't engineers (e.g., I have a chemistry degree). I imagine the same qualities apply outside of purely "engineers".
  16. Anyone know if you have to be a shareholder to attend and/or what proof you would need?
  17. 6-8k for audit 2k for taxes (small number of partners) 1500-2000 per quarter for administration ?k random filings/legal stuff Also, +1 on "you will definitely be surprised who gives you money and who doesn't". I was very lucky to have a group of investors who almost all came through, but I understand that is not typical.
  18. Startup costs: 20-30k Operating Expenses (Very lean): 12k-20k Definitely possible to launch at AUM of 5M, but don't expect to make much money at the beginning unless you have incentive fees and really great performance (which I don't think should be expected, generally).
  19. It seems like you cover quite a bit of data, so I don't have much to add there. However, the look of it is very distracting--the eye is drawn everywhere (so many colors, fonts, stylings!). I would try to simplify the design and make it look much more clean. Use less colors; choose what is important to draw the eye to. It almost feels like looking at a presentation/webpage from a decade or more back. I like the second page much better than the first, but again, there is a ton of different stylings even in the table. I tend to think for layouts/stylings--just pick one or two fonts, 1-3 colors (except on charts), consistent stylings (and not too many). I'd also move the copyright to the footer area and give it some space from the content--right now it crowds the top area and makes the first page asymmetric.
  20. Clearly, we need to set up a ping pong table for next FFH shareholder meeting. I know I'd like to play.
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