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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/21/2025 in Posts

  1. CIBC have a target of $2700 for Fairfax. Here is their take on Eurobank. EQUITY RESEARCH May 20, 2025 Company Update FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Unrealized Gains Continue To Accumulate On Eurobank Shares Our Conclusion This is a brief note to highlight the continued momentum building in Eurobank shares, which are hitting multi-year highs not seen in almost a decade. As Fairfax’s largest equity investment, we now estimate that “unrealized gains” amount to more than 5% of book value. This magnitude might sound more additive than transformational per se, but still reflects a healthy amount of upside that has not yet been crystallized or recognized in earnings / book value. Fairfax’s equity portfolio has always garnered a lot of attention owing to the company’s unconventional approach of acquiring large economic interests in higher-conviction holdings. In this context, the strong performance of Fairfax’s single-largest equity investment could bode well for investor sentiment and the multiple re-rating opportunity. Key Points Eurobank shares hitting multi-year highs. Eurobank shares are now trading at US$3.00/share (see the line chart in Exhibit 1), which is the highest level in nearly a decade. Fairfax owns a sizeable economic interest in Eurobank, representing the company’s largest equity investment with a carrying value amounting to ~10% of book value. Eurobank is a diversified banking group with operations anchored in Greece and a growing presence across Cyprus, Luxembourg, Bulgaria and the U.K. Fairfax owns a 32% economic interest which necessitates equity accounting, meaning that the investment is not marked-to-market. As a result, fluctuations in Eurobank’s share price do not have any short-term implications for earnings or book value. However, the unrealized gains accumulate just the same – whether they are recognized in the short-term or long-term from an accounting standpoint. Considering that Eurobank is likely not on the radar of most North American investors, we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight the continued build in share price momentum. Unrealized gains now amount to over 5% of book value. The current market value of Eurobank shares implies that the fair value of Fairfax’s investment stands at US$3.6 billion, significantly exceeding the carrying value of US$2.4 billion (as outlined by the table in Exhibit 2). The difference between fair value and carrying value (i.e., US$1.2 billion) amounts to 5.1% of book value. We continue to like FFH at these levels. Fairfax’s largest equity investment continues to perform well and demonstrates positive momentum. We also see potential for Fairfax to eventually be added to the S&P/TSX 60 Index which could drive a significant amount of passive buying activity into the stock (our index analyst had previously estimated 15x ADV). Valuation also remains inexpensive, with the stock trading at a P/B multiple of 1.5x versus peers at a median multiple of 2.2x (despite generating a comparable ROE and a healthy / growing divergence between fair value and carrying value for certain investments like Eurobank).
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  2. Thanks. A good summary of how Fairfax has transitioned their business since 2011.
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