CIBC have a target of $2700 for Fairfax. Here is their take on Eurobank.
EQUITY RESEARCH
May 20, 2025 Company Update
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Unrealized Gains Continue To Accumulate On Eurobank
Shares
Our Conclusion
This is a brief note to highlight the continued momentum building in
Eurobank shares, which are hitting multi-year highs not seen in almost a
decade. As Fairfax’s largest equity investment, we now estimate that
“unrealized gains” amount to more than 5% of book value. This magnitude
might sound more additive than transformational per se, but still reflects a
healthy amount of upside that has not yet been crystallized or recognized in
earnings / book value. Fairfax’s equity portfolio has always garnered a lot of
attention owing to the company’s unconventional approach of acquiring large
economic interests in higher-conviction holdings. In this context, the strong
performance of Fairfax’s single-largest equity investment could bode well for
investor sentiment and the multiple re-rating opportunity.
Key Points
Eurobank shares hitting multi-year highs. Eurobank shares are now
trading at US$3.00/share (see the line chart in Exhibit 1), which is the highest
level in nearly a decade. Fairfax owns a sizeable economic interest in
Eurobank, representing the company’s largest equity investment with a
carrying value amounting to ~10% of book value. Eurobank is a diversified
banking group with operations anchored in Greece and a growing presence
across Cyprus, Luxembourg, Bulgaria and the U.K. Fairfax owns a 32%
economic interest which necessitates equity accounting, meaning that the
investment is not marked-to-market. As a result, fluctuations in Eurobank’s
share price do not have any short-term implications for earnings or book
value. However, the unrealized gains accumulate just the same – whether
they are recognized in the short-term or long-term from an accounting
standpoint. Considering that Eurobank is likely not on the radar of most North
American investors, we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight the
continued build in share price momentum.
Unrealized gains now amount to over 5% of book value. The current
market value of Eurobank shares implies that the fair value of Fairfax’s
investment stands at US$3.6 billion, significantly exceeding the carrying
value of US$2.4 billion (as outlined by the table in Exhibit 2). The difference
between fair value and carrying value (i.e., US$1.2 billion) amounts to 5.1%
of book value.
We continue to like FFH at these levels. Fairfax’s largest equity investment
continues to perform well and demonstrates positive momentum. We also
see potential for Fairfax to eventually be added to the S&P/TSX 60 Index
which could drive a significant amount of passive buying activity into the
stock (our index analyst had previously estimated 15x ADV). Valuation also
remains inexpensive, with the stock trading at a P/B multiple of 1.5x versus
peers at a median multiple of 2.2x (despite generating a comparable ROE
and a healthy / growing divergence between fair value and carrying value for
certain investments like Eurobank).