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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/25/2023 in all areas

  1. This is a brilliant comment indeed. Many long time China commentators such as Michael Pettis, Eswar Prasad, George Magnus, Stephen Roach are saying the same thing...China has some really tough decisions on the economy and these are political decisions. They have already started back tracking on a lot of Xi nonsense....but it remains to be seen if they can go the whole hog. XI above all craves stability and control so they can not afford sustained poor economy as that would lead to delegitimizing CCP and riots in the streets. Examples of back tracking... (i) Houses are for living versus now loosening policy to stabilize housing (ii) Punishing Private business/Entreprenuers that drive most of the innovation and jobs growth and favouring SOE versus now saying Private enterprises are equal to SOE and are vital to China's future. (iii) Common prosperity crap versus now saying getting rich by being entrepreneur is to be encouraged as that drives growth and employment which benefits society. (iv) Punishing capital markets versus now encouraging capital markets SO far they are holding firm on major fiscal boost to kick start the consumption part of the economy but that may be coming and they may even mix old unproductive infrastructure spend just to meet the GDP target and a restless population. To me questions and answers are obvious:- (i) What do they need to do and why ? Avoid instability via economic crisis and malaise (unemployment) to keep CCP in power. (ii) How can they do it ? Various new methods (new tech innovation & Consumption), new methods may take time and be slow but old methods (infrastrcuture ) are effective at boosting GDP and are fast acting but extremely wasteful - who cares about debt at this point, there is sufficient fiscal space for them to take on more debt (according to all the China followers )- forget local government debt, LGFV debt - central government has space - so just a left pocket, right pocket thing) (iii) What if economy goes off rails ? Debt is not a problem - its all internal - they can keep pumping money in different areas until it turns ... (iv) What is the right way to do it ? slow growth, transition, coordination, flexibility and vision (v) What is the best way to play slow growth ? Be in fast growing sectors within the slow growth economy (vi) Why invest in China at all when you can grow in fast growing sectors in US/West ? Yes by all means its not an either or, its an "and" story....China fast growers are at incredible valuation if you can get past geopolitics. (v) What do I expect out of this ? At a minimum sugar high in about 12-24 months....and may be some long term wins because they are in the right space at the right time....
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