Not sure if this was shared on this thread before but it reads like a good summary of what is being discussed here -
https://www.edgepointwealth.com/article/Q4-2022-EdgePoint-commentary/
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While long-memory stocks exist in every market, the dynamic is magnified in Canada. The Canadian stock market is very narrow since there’s only a small group of companies to pick from. Institutional and retail investors have an opinion of just about every business. If you have been burned on a Canadian stock in the past, it can take years before you ever look at it again.
Fairfax is the ultimate long-memory stock. It went from market darling to pariah. What should have been a comeback story was missed by investors afraid of getting hurt again.
For the first 15 years of Fairfax’s life, it was one of Canada’s shining stars. The company grew its book value per share (BVPS), a proxy for the change in intrinsic value, from US$1.52/share to US$155.55/share for a compound annual growth rate of 39%.ii The CEO, Prem Watsa, was described by many as “Canada’s Warren Buffett”. By the late 1990s, the stock was trading at 5x BV (an unheard-of valuation for an insurance company).
Just like the internet companies discussed at the value conference, high expectations in the stock market are often a recipe for disappointment. Fairfax was no exception.
The company had a series of self-inflicted issues – first on the insurance side and then later with its investments. While BVPS has grown from US$155/share to US$570/share today,iii the multiple compression (from 5x BV to under 1x BV) has erased almost all the returns for investors.
Fast-forward almost 25 years, the stock price finally surpassed its 1999 peak! An entire generation of investors had a painful experience. Imagine explaining to your clients that after years of losing money with Canada’s Warren Buffett…why this time is different. To avoid the pain, investors have vowed to stay away.
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