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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/26/2023 in all areas

  1. ~7-8% return on investments would be a home run b/c it translates to ~15%+ return for FFH shareholders b/c of leverage. Rough numbers, roughly right. If FFH underwrites at breakeven, that equates to borrowing at a 0% interest rate on roughly half the asset base at the current size of the insurance operations. This is why the intelligent growth in the insurance side over the last 5-7 years is such a big deal even if they “only” break even longer term. Buffett has talked about that power of insurance float for 60 years and it is still widely misunderstood IMHO… at least in the Fairfax case. FWIW, that float leverage is a big absolute *and relative* advantage for well managed insurance companies again, with borrowing costs for other industries back off the zero bound. Also, as they flip to highly cash generative, the share count and minority interests should continue to shrink. From this valuation starting point, that all could translate to a ~8-10x return over the next decade with mid teens EPS growth (even with zero growth on the insurance side) if the “exit” multiple expands to a fair low-to-mid teens multiple of earnings. Haters would be in shambles not investment advice
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