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Turkish banks


blainehodder
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I'm currently in Turkey right now for a couple of months to do research on company's here, at the moment I'm just trying to get my head around the current political situation and how companies operate in the country but will post here if anything comes up.

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Anyone done a deep dive into Turkish banks? Quickly glancing at some ratios gives me an impression there could be bargains. Under tangible book for banks with a history of profits.

 

I looked at them two years ago or so as I thought they had been bailed out by the turnaround in Euroarea. My view was that there was something unsound going on and the aggregate CA deficit suggests that a lot of hot money has made it into the system. My guess is that it is, in accordance with my views above, largely European subsidiaries (although it is hard to pick up these flows from BoP) that have put money in and it will all come apart quickly when this stops. The IMF also has an interesting study this issue, obviously aimed at countries like Turkey, in the latest WEO. Finally, the politics are awful. There are a lot of nice businesses there in the non-bank sector but the macro situation looks poor.

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