Puerto Rico muni bonds

[muscleman]

I am surprised the interests drawn to the thread is so low. The bond has gone up nearly 100% in 4 months. :)

[rukawa]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/gundlach-sees-puerto-rico-like-mortgages-in-2008-crisis

 

The pension obligation bonds look pretty attractive.

[oddballstocks]

muscleman- not sure if you're still looking for this, but i did not see it:

 

Puerto Rico Commonwealth PUB IMPT-SER A 5.750 Jul-01-2041

CUSIP 74514LYW1

 

I have to imagine that issue is referenced in articles often because it appears to have much better liquidity.

 

Why not call your broker?

I am not long PR bonds because after the expected downgrade to junk, the bond did not sell off as I expected, which means it is bullish.

I am long BPOP. :)

 

Did you look at OFG?  Any reason you picked BPOP over OFG?  Have spent some time on both, curious as to your thoughts.

[muscleman]

muscleman- not sure if you're still looking for this, but i did not see it:

 

Puerto Rico Commonwealth PUB IMPT-SER A 5.750 Jul-01-2041

CUSIP 74514LYW1

 

I have to imagine that issue is referenced in articles often because it appears to have much better liquidity.

Why not call your broker?

I am not long PR bonds because after the expected downgrade to junk, the bond did not sell off as I expected, which means it is bullish.

I am long BPOP. :)

 

Did you look at OFG?  Any reason you picked BPOP over OFG?  Have spent some time on both, curious as to your thoughts.

 

No. I am not aware of OFG. I picked BPOP when it was $24-26. I sold recently around $35, and bought BoC, because I think Bank of Cyprus is more interesting at this stage.

Bank of Cyprus currently is trading at 2.5 price/pre-provision earnings. And I expect the bank to at least break even this year.

It has over 53% of non-performing assets, so when those are all gone, it should trade at 1.2 times P/E, which means the stock has the potential to go up 800-1000%.

There is of course risks. They claimed that loan loss reserve + collateral should cover 113% of NPA, but who knows.....

[muscleman]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-ricos-power-authority-reaches-deal-with-bondholders-1441191429

 

"Puerto Rico’s power authority said Wednesday that it agreed to the terms of a restructuring plan with a group of bondholders, who are slated to receive 85% of the value of their existing bonds in exchange for new securities."

 

If PREPA's bond haircut is only 15%, other bonds like the highway bond should fair better because they still have the ability to pay.

[muscleman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-usa-puertorico-restructuring-idUSKCN0R91JD20150909

 

The drama has begun. My thesis is under stress tests.  :)