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Grant's Interest Rate Observer


Lance
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I tried to answer the same question for myself this past summer while working at an investment firm that had a subscription. I read through the past 5 years of material. It's always an interesting read. The manager I worked for credited Grant's for helping him avoid catastrophe in the financial crisis. Pre-recession, Grant's was waving red flags about the expansion of credit at 20% a year. So my boss was avoiding banks altogether.

 

Grant is somewhat obsessed with negative views about fiat currency and the Fed's bond-buying program. I stopped reading because after a while he's just flogging a dead horse. Is it worth the price? In my view it's not. But If you're really interested in macro-econ and have plenty of disposable income it's probably worth a try.

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I tried to answer the same question for myself this past summer while working at an investment firm that had a subscription. I read through the past 5 years of material. It's always an interesting read. The manager I worked for credited Grant's for helping him avoid catastrophe in the financial crisis. Pre-recession, Grant's was waving red flags about the expansion of credit at 20% a year. So my boss was avoiding banks altogether.

 

Grant is somewhat obsessed with negative views about fiat currency and the Fed's bond-buying program. I stopped reading because after a while he's just flogging a dead horse. Is it worth the price? In my view it's not. But If you're really interested in macro-econ and have plenty of disposable income it's probably worth a try.

 

I have read 2 sample issues and while the first half dealt with Fed policy macro econ, the second half dealt with individual securities, which were well done (I particularly recall his write up on autos including GM).

 

I'm not sure if it's worth the price, but I enjoyed the sample issues.

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I cancelled it.  I found it to be a guilty pleasure, as the investment ideas were generally not my kind of investment ideas.  The commentary was thoughtful and well-written.  The history component was valuable, too.  I'd pick it up again the next time I feel like indulging.

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Hello - I was curious as to whether any of those who subscribe to Grant's recommended it - i.e. is it worth the price?

 

Many thanks,

Lance

 

Whether or not it is worth the price depends on your financial situation. You wouldn't want to buy it for the investment ideas, but the commentary is highly entertaining and always well-written. Like an earlier poster said, it's an indulgence; you won't make any money as a result of subscribing.

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I would agree with the comments above, Grant’s is probably best viewed as an indulgence but I would also say you will find some actionable ideas.  By way of example, Grant’s had a write-up on walnut trees a while back.  We have farm land that delivers a very poor return in relation to other investment opportunities we deal in but can’t get rid of it for legacy reasons.  I read the write-up and decided to call up my states forestry department.  I find out that the state will give me as many seedlings as I want at no cost.  30-40 years from now we will harvest a few thousand trees on almost zero incremental capital.  I have heard a few similar stories where someone read an article in Grant’s and it led them to a very interesting and unexpected investment (I believe Eisman found the CDS trade through Grant’s).  If you enjoy obscure ideas like this, along with a few equity ideas and a little macro you will enjoy Grant’s.  If you are just looking for on the run equity ideas you probably won’t enjoy Grant’s.

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