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4th 2012 - Mark-to-Market


JEast
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Not that we long-term holders care that much, nevertheless, 4th quarter MTM should please those market types though. 

 

The Cunningham booked gains are $160M, and RIMM alone should look favorable from the September 30th value.  The big question is what the Sandy attachment points will be for Odyssey, but expect a significant amount for the business interruption to be booked.  Also, unsure what crop losses will be on the negative side as most are normally booked in the 4th quarter.  For the conference call, it was noted that this was not a significant business line for FFH, but my gut says be prepared for bigger numbers than hinted at.

 

 

Cheers

JEast

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Don't forget there could be a significant amount of stock repurchased as it did drop below book.  FFH is cash rich and looking for opportunities...

 

Not that we long-term holders care that much, nevertheless, 4th quarter MTM should please those market types though. 

 

The Cunningham booked gains are $160M, and RIMM alone should look favorable from the September 30th value.  The big question is what the Sandy attachment points will be for Odyssey, but expect a significant amount for the business interruption to be booked.  Also, unsure what crop losses will be on the negative side as most are normally booked in the 4th quarter.  For the conference call, it was noted that this was not a significant business line for FFH, but my gut says be prepared for bigger numbers than hinted at.

 

 

Cheers

JEast

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All long-term shareholders will be disappointed if some shares were not repurchased as it went below $340C a few times.  However, I suspect only a minimal amount was purchased as they want to keep the cash balance above $1B.  As several P/C companies have now reported their Sandy impact, some were less than expected like Berkley at only $50m pre-tax. Odyssey may escape with the low attachment points, but think we are going to take a hit on business interruption and crop though.

 

Cheers

JEast

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A few more folks have reported on Sandy.  Of note, RenaissanceRe reported $130m after-tax impact -- Ouch.  Ouch with respect that this represents an estimated 10% of net premiums.  Did not seem to bother the market though and not necessarily a good metric, but interesting.  In reference, ORH is running a little over $2b in net premiums.

 

http://investor.renre.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=65065&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1769123&highlight=

 

Cheers

JEast

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