Guest Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Do you guys have any quotes from Grant's Interest Rate Observer for the current time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 If the US ever succeed in getting its health-care costs under control, which means just in line with the rest of the world… no dramatic virtuousness required here!, they would really become once again an unstoppable force! ;) giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 I think most of our health issues would be resolved if we just eliminated processed foods. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted July 5, 2013 Share Posted July 5, 2013 I think most of our health issues would be resolved if we just eliminated processed foods. :P Yes, maybe Hippocrates can be Obama's health care adviser. Oh no, I guess not, he lived between 460 BC - 377 BC: http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Hippocrates/ Everyone has a doctor in him or her; we just have to help it in its work. The natural healing force within each one of us is the greatest force in getting well. Our food should be our medicine. Our medicine should be our food. But to eat when you are sick, is to feed your sickness. Hippocrates Walking is man's best medicine. Hippocrates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 I was just reading about this book in Businessweek. Any of you guys have a chance to read it? http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Deformation-Corruption-Capitalism/dp/1586489127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 If the US ever succeed in getting its health-care costs under control, which means just in line with the rest of the world… no dramatic virtuousness required here!, they would really become once again an unstoppable force! ;) giofranchi The US system incentivizes using the most expensive treatment options available, even when cheaper options are clearly better as established by controlled studies. This is a continuing theme in the books we publish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 Profit Outlook July 2013 giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 "Bad Omens" by Charles & Louis Gave giofranchi2013_07_09_OTB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 13, 2013 Author Share Posted July 13, 2013 Growth since 2008... ;D ;D ;D giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/11/investing/trading-flash-crash/index.html?iid=s_mpm Citadel: The stock market is safer than ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 'The Mirror Cracks' by Michael E. Lewitt giofranchi2013_07_17_OTB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Albert Edwards latestAlbert_Edwards.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 The wheels are coming off the whole of southern Europe Sooner or later, this immense bluff must surely be called. giofranchiThe_wheels_are_coming_off_the_whole_of_southern_Europe_-_Telegraph.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Hoisington Quarterly Review and Qutlook Q2 2013 giofranchiHIM2013Q2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 It's A Stock Market Stampede: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-sees-largest-weekly-equity-inflow-since-june-2008-2013-7 Everyone loves the US markets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Krugman: China hitting the wall now: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/19/opinion/krugman-hitting-chinas-wall.html?hp&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 21, 2013 Author Share Posted July 21, 2013 I don't think anybody can time the market on a consistent basis, but if you listen to the message of the stock market you sure as heck can decide when you should be 'playing hard' and when you should not be playing as hard, and so I'm not playing that hard right here. --Jeff Saut http://streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1771-is-this-a-2007-redux.html Everyone kept saying ‘a top is not in place yet.’ They persistently pointed to the ‘normally reached’ levels of this or that statistic that were not yet there to reinforce their desire to remain bullish. . . . Apart from statistical measures of increasing blindness, this unwillingness to acknowledge what they themselves were already feeling revealed a comfortableness, a confidence, a conviction that whatever was happening – short-term survivable dips – would continue . . . until ‘the top,’ like a strip tease artiste of our youth would with decorum appear on stage, bow, and then, accompanied by applause from all the bulls eager to cash in on their excitement, would begin to twirl its statistical tassels in front of everyone. “I’ve gotten so old I can’t remember the names of those ladies at the Old Howard, but I can remember that all you got was a flash of this or that, before they waltzed off. Stock market tops are like that. You know it’s there somewhere if you squint hard enough, but you never quite see it, so you keep waiting for more. And then, in the end, as the curtain comes down on the bull market you realize that the one rule about tops is not that they provide this or that signal, but that they come before anyone is ready. --Justin Mamis http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txitxo Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 The colourful Justin Mamis quote illustrates nicely how it feels now in the US stockmarket. Lots of danger indicators are flashing, but people say Bernanke this, liquidity tsunami that. And hey, US stocks keep going up. The farmer dutifully feeds the turkey every day. I got out of US stocks around last November, and since them I'm up by 20% with my EU stocks. Bestinver International is also up by 20%, and the only laggard is FFH, which has gone up "only" by 10% since then. Perhaps I could have done much better in the US market. Or not. Predicting the behaviour of the stock market is as impossible as predicting the weather. But you can get a reasonable estimate of the odds for different outcomes. The US market has a Shiller PE ~24, whereas EU stocks hover around 13 and for instance, a country like Brazil, with lots of growth ahead, has reached a Shiller PE of 10. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 'Southern Europe Walks On Thin Air' by Mr. Charles Gave giofranchiSouthern-Europe-Walks-On-Thin-Air.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Pzena second quarter commentary: http://www.pzena.com/uploads/documents/Commentary%202Q13.pdf Despite a strong run, deep value stocks are still behind the market this cycle. An abundance of deeply undervalued companies gives us optimism that we are still in the early phases of recovery. Likes financials (BAC): Financial sector remains deeply depressed, in the 93rd percentile of historical valuations. …and technology (MSFT): Twelve-month relative trailing price-to-earnings ratios are at the lowest point in 35 years. … providing the disciplined investor an extraordinary opportunity to buy world-class franchises at considerable discounts. and explains what could happen with BAC if interest rates were to rise: A rise in interest rates could be a huge boon to the company's earnings, as interest rates on loans tend to adjust upward faster than interest credited to their depositors. … a return to the long-term average (NIM) would have the effect of increasing the bank's earnings by about $7 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FFHfan Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Rothschild Investment Quarterly Q3 2013 & Rothschild Market Perspective Issue 52 | July 2013 Investment_Quarterly_Q3_2013.pdfMarket_Perspective_July_2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Pzena second quarter commentary: http://www.pzena.com/uploads/documents/Commentary%202Q13.pdf Despite a strong run, deep value stocks are still behind the market this cycle. An abundance of deeply undervalued companies gives us optimism that we are still in the early phases of recovery. Likes financials (BAC): Financial sector remains deeply depressed, in the 93rd percentile of historical valuations. …and technology (MSFT): Twelve-month relative trailing price-to-earnings ratios are at the lowest point in 35 years. … providing the disciplined investor an extraordinary opportunity to buy world-class franchises at considerable discounts. and explains what could happen with BAC if interest rates were to rise: A rise in interest rates could be a huge boon to the company's earnings, as interest rates on loans tend to adjust upward faster than interest credited to their depositors. … a return to the long-term average (NIM) would have the effect of increasing the bank's earnings by about $7 billion. Hi hellsten, please take a look at the Pzena commentary in attachment: it is from Q2 2008. We believe that world-class franchises like Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, and others are being offered at fire-sale prices relative to their long-term normal earnings power. Citigroup stock price closed Q2 2008 at $167.6, it bottomed in March 2009 at $10.5, and closed yesterday at $52.25. If you had heeded Mr. Pzena’s advice, 5 years later you would still have less than 1/3 of your initial capital… This means at least two things to me: 1) Expressions like “world-class franchises” are almost meaningless… either you know exactly what you own, or you don’t. And imo to know mega-banks very well is extremely difficult. 2) You might certainly think the market will keep on advancing for a while, and you might certainly choose to play that advance. But, “to party like it is 1999” is dangerous here… There is a time for aggressiveness and a time for caution… Imo now is the time for caution. This doesn’t mean I am not invested in businesses that I think I know very well, that I like very much, and that I think are undervalued… In fact, I am always invested! It simply means that I am playing it safe. giofranchi Commentary_2Q08.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Just one person’s view, but here you go… From Mark Grant at Southwest Securities When the bank depositors money was confiscated in the Cyprus bailout we all wondered, and rightfully so, if this was to be the template for bail-ins in the European Union. Cyprus marked a decided shift in policy for Europe. The days of using taxpayer money had come to an end and a new era had begun. The game had changed. In considering the bankruptcy for Detroit I wonder if we have not reached a shift in policy in the United States and what it might mean for the Municipal bond market. A Federal Judge has now ruled that the filing is valid and that the Chapter 9 proceeding is legitimate and will be decided on in Federal court. So here is the first piece of the template; municipal bankruptcies will be a matter of Federal law and not state law. The current plan, not accepted by anyone yet, means a 90% loss for Detroit municipal retirees, an 81% loss for unsecured creditors, and a 75% loss for secured creditors. No joy in Mudville for any camp here. There will be the normal bickering, shouting and hand waving as everyone fights over what little money is left. What also is becoming clear, and long a speculation about Municipal bond bankruptcies, is that neither the County or the State or the Federal government has any intention of helping Detroit through this process. It is becoming quite clear that the city is being left on a stand-alone basis. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., has introduced an amendment to ban the Federal government from bailing out Detroit or any other municipalities. "There is no doubt Detroit has huge problems, but they are facing problems of their own making," Graham says in e-mailed statement. Graham's amendment to the Treasury Budget Bill would ban using Federal funds to buy or guarantee any asset from any municipal, local or county governments facing default. The measure also would prohibit the Federal government from issuing lines of credit or giving any financial help to avert bankruptcy. In other words no money or any sort of guarantee for "debtor in possession" financing. This then raises several delicate questions about how Detroit, or any other municipality, is going to exit from bankruptcy if no bond seniority is available or can be granted. What I think can be said here is that the risk of owning Municipal bonds has just risen by a significant measure and that a new appreciation for the risks associated with Munis must be considered and accounted for in the spreads of Munis to other types of bonds. If a city is going to be disassociated from a State and if a State is not going to be supported by the Federal government then the old suppositions that have long been a part of the Municipal bond market must be re-examined. The bond issues are just the normal fighting about money ones. The pension issues though may raise problems of a more difficult sort. If the municipal works are going to lose a large part of their pensions then you may expect a significant hue and cry in both the State and Federal legislatures. It may be that eventually each State oversees the municipal pensions in their State in a manner which has not been found before. This would result in all kinds of new regulations and oversight that are not in place currently. Also if the Federal government would decide to guarantee in some form municipal pensions then large liabilities would be added to the Federal deficit. However this plays out I think it is a reasonable assumption that the regulations for Municipalities and their pension obligations will not be what has been found in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 "The Emergence Of A US Underclass" by Charles Gave giofranchiThe_Emergence_Of_A_US_Underclass.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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