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Further Evidence That a Housing Rebound is Imminent


Parsad
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Is this showing the housing rebound is imminent or just a bunch of funds trying deploy capital looking for yield.  5 to 6% unlevered returns do not sound too high as RE investment returns to me.  Could they just be bidding the prices up short-term and reducing the long term potential for returns?  Housing will return when folks can afford to buy houses with good incomes not when investment funds invest.

 

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http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-shadow-inventory-fell-in-april-2012-to-october-2008-levels.aspx

 

 

  • As of April 2012, shadow inventory fell to 1.5 million units, or four-month’ supply and represented just over half of the 2.8 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
  • The four-month’ supply of shadow inventory is at its lowest level in nearly three years. It parallels the unsold months’ supply of non-distressed active listings that hit a more than five-year low in April, falling to a 6.5-months’ from a 9.1-months’ supply just a year ago.
  • Of the 1.5 million properties currently in the shadow inventory (Figures 1 and 2), 720,000 units are seriously delinquent (two months’ supply), 410,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.1-months’ supply) and 390,000 are already in REO (1.1-months’ supply).
  • The dollar volume of shadow inventory was $246 billion as of April 2012, down from $270 billion a year ago and a three-year low.
  • Serious delinquencies, which are the main driver of the shadow inventory, declined the most in Arizona (-37.0 percent), California (-28.0 percent), Nevada (-27.4 percent), Michigan (-23.7 percent) and Minnesota (-18.1 percent).

 

 

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