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ECRI Still bearish on the economy


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ECRI are still defending their recession call. Hope the link works.http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2012/03/16/ecri-why-our-recession-call-stands/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+advisoranalyst+%28AdvisorAnalyst+Views%29

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Here are a few numbers that may partly explain why they are bearish....


In constant (2005) dollars:


GDP in 2007 (pre-recession): $13.23 trillion

GDP in 2008 (recession starts): $13.31 trillion

GDP in 2009 (recession officially ends in mid-2009): $12.88 trillion

GDP in 2010: 13.04 trillion

GDP in 2011: $13.3 trillion


In constant (2005) dollars, the economy is back to 2008 levels. That's after $6.1 trillion in additional debt and Federal spending.


Federal revenues:


2007 $2.56 trillion

2010 $2.16 trillion


Federal spending:


2007 $2.72 trillion

2010 $3.72 trillion


In three years, Federal spending jumped almost exactly $1 trillion, or 36.7%.


In 2011, the Federal deficit is approximately 11% of the nation's GDP and the Federal government borrowed 42% of its expenditures.

Now Europe is in a recession, with most of the austerity backloaded for the second half of the year, so expect it to worsen. China's economy  is slowing down. So U.S. growth comes from.........




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