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Maybe Apple's The Next Berkshire!


Parsad

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People are underestimating the amount of traction Apple is gaining in business. I work for a mech company that supports/services a very large industry (automotive) and I'm seek/hearing about a lot of companies migrating to Apple products on a significant scale. The amount of companies I see starting to use iPads and switching to iPhones is large and growing quickly.

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People are underestimating the amount of traction Apple is gaining in business. I work for a mech company that supports/services a very large industry (automotive) and I'm seek/hearing about a lot of companies migrating to Apple products on a significant scale. The amount of companies I see starting to use iPads and switching to iPhones is large and growing quickly.

I don't think anyone is questioning this, surely no one is saying anything else than that Apple will continue to grow in the short to medium term.

 

For me this boils down to one question: which one is more likely, that Apple has changed the economics of the tech business for the forseeable future or that their current earnings is an anomaly and will revert back to the mean? As long as I don't see a significant moat that will change the product cycle of cell phones, computers and tablets, I have no way of knowing that Apple's revenues will be at the same level in 10 years and much less their earnings. Thus, I can only have the standpoint that the top dog in the hardware tech business will continue to change every few years.

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I don't think anyone is questioning this, surely no one is saying anything else than that Apple will continue to grow in the short to medium term.

 

For me this boils down to one question: which one is more likely, that Apple has changed the economics of the tech business for the forseeable future or that their current earnings is an anomaly and will revert back to the mean? As long as I don't see a significant moat that will change the product cycle of cell phones, computers and tablets, I have no way of knowing that Apple's revenues will be at the same level in 10 years and much less their earnings. Thus, I can only have the standpoint that the top dog in the hardware tech business will continue to change every few years.

 

So... flip a proverbial switch (or if you prefer, take on the insufferable burden of the market cap crown) and earnings go from growing 20% y-o-y to shrinking to some levels much smaller than current (to justify the inevitable selloff many here are prognosticating, given that AAPL is currently trading at low-teens P/E ex-cash)?

 

Many cited IBM and MSFT as precedents of tech titans getting too big for their own good, which is all well and good... except both IBM and MSFT have grown earnings fairly steadily after the so called change of thrones (MSFT peak EPS before dot-come bubble burst: $0.90, TTM EPS: $2.76).

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Guest misterstockwell

My IPhone constantly "forgets" my WiFi password (frequently after I walk out of range of the network).  I have to keep typing it in again (happens a few times a month or so). 

 

I wondered if this happened to anyone else.  It happens to me fairly frequently.  Often I can't just type it in, but have to reboot the network before it will accept the password again.  Drives me crazy.

 

Duh--you are holding the phone wrong!  ;)

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Guest valueInv

I don't think anyone is questioning this, surely no one is saying anything else than that Apple will continue to grow in the short to medium term.

 

For me this boils down to one question: which one is more likely, that Apple has changed the economics of the tech business for the forseeable future or that their current earnings is an anomaly and will revert back to the mean? As long as I don't see a significant moat that will change the product cycle of cell phones, computers and tablets, I have no way of knowing that Apple's revenues will be at the same level in 10 years and much less their earnings. Thus, I can only have the standpoint that the top dog in the hardware tech business will continue to change every few years.

 

Last quarter's earnings are an anomaly helped by:

- Delay in iPhone 4S that pushed demand into the last calendar quarter

- Steve Job's death and the release of the book that created massive publicity for Apple.

 

So I don't expect 100%+ growth again. But Apple is not going to go from growing 85% to negative growth overnight either. Apple has been building a moat quietly. They have 85 Million people who have their photos, documents, contacts on iCloud. Millions who have bought music on iTunes or magazine subscriptions on Newstand or books on iBooks or spent money on apps. Millions who use iMessage for free messaging. A switch to an Android phone would mean walking away from all the money you have spent on the platform. The longer you own an IOS device, the more you have invested in purchasing things on it, the more you will leave behind if you switch. That is one reason why Apple is building things like textbooks, etc. Also, there is no simple way for you to move your data over to another platform.

 

The longer Apple stays, the harder it is to dislodge them. 

 

 

 

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Guest misterstockwell

It might be a lemon, but in my house there is a hatch of flies buzzing around this fruit.

 

My MacBook Pro crashed (full system crash) twice in the first few months (though not again in the past year).  My IPhone constantly "forgets" my WiFi password (frequently after I walk out of range of the network).  I have to keep typing it in again (happens a few times a month or so).  The ITunes app on my PC will hang when I try to sync to it.  My wife's IPod needs to be reformatted sometimes after she syncs with ITunes (that was the only solution I found on the net as there are plenty of people complaining of this).

 

When the Apple TV stops "working" (my wife's words) I just walk in there and pull the power -- that usually fixes it.  Otherwise, the problem is that her IMac on her desk (wireless) needs to have the "Airport" turned off and then turned back on again -- it just drops off the network and doesn't rejoin unless you refresh the Airport.  And that happens also on my MacBook Pro (same issue with the airport).  But it never happens on my Windows Vista laptop!

 

"Stink" Different -- that's my impression.

 

Add a CetonCorp tuner card to a Windows 7 PC and use media center. It's a dream. We have 4 HD tuners, unlimited recording capacity, a great interface, totally stable. Ceton is coming out with the Q and Echo

that will eliminate any need for a PC and provide the same wonderful media center interface, as well as small silent extenders, and a search/aggregation ability for media content.
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I don't think anyone is questioning this, surely no one is saying anything else than that Apple will continue to grow in the short to medium term.

 

For me this boils down to one question: which one is more likely, that Apple has changed the economics of the tech business for the forseeable future or that their current earnings is an anomaly and will revert back to the mean? As long as I don't see a significant moat that will change the product cycle of cell phones, computers and tablets, I have no way of knowing that Apple's revenues will be at the same level in 10 years and much less their earnings. Thus, I can only have the standpoint that the top dog in the hardware tech business will continue to change every few years.

 

Last quarter's earnings are an anomaly helped by:

- Delay in iPhone 4S that pushed demand into the last calendar quarter

- Steve Job's death and the release of the book that created massive publicity for Apple.

 

So I don't expect 100%+ growth again. But Apple is not going to go from growing 85% to negative growth overnight either. Apple has been building a moat quietly. They have 85 Million people who have their photos, documents, contacts on iCloud. Millions who have bought music on iTunes or magazine subscriptions on Newstand or books on iBooks or spent money on apps. Millions who use iMessage for free messaging. A switch to an Android phone would mean walking away from all the money you have spent on the platform. The longer you own an IOS device, the more you have invested in purchasing things on it, the more you will leave behind if you switch. That is one reason why Apple is building things like textbooks, etc. Also, there is no simple way for you to move your data over to another platform.

 

The longer Apple stays, the harder it is to dislodge them.

 

I have nothing but goodwill towards Apple the company and I am not particularly savvy about the latest gadgets, but I just do not see any moat here.

 

I remember hearing about the moat around Yahoo's email and AOL's instant messenging network. I do not see why anyone would be particularly bothered by walking away from a couple of hundred dollars worth of investment at the most in apps. Also I think it is pretty likely you would have ability to import/migrate the books and data to newer apps at some point in the very near future.

 

At a $400 billion market cap I would think most Apple investors would be counting on earning it back in the next 10 years i.e. undiscounted earnings of about $400 billion over the next 10 years at a very high IRR. If such a large profit pool at supremely high attractive rates of return does not attract competition and drive it down to more normal levels, I would be very surprised. Not saying it is going to happen, but that would be the way to bet IMO.

 

Thanks

 

Vinod

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I have nothing but goodwill towards Apple the company and I am not particularly savvy about the latest gadgets, but I just do not see any moat here.

 

I remember hearing about the moat around Yahoo's email and AOL's instant messenging network. I do not see why anyone would be particularly bothered by walking away from a couple of hundred dollars worth of investment at the most in apps. Also I think it is pretty likely you would have ability to import/migrate the books and data to newer apps at some point in the very near future.

 

At a $400 billion market cap I would think most Apple investors would be counting on earning it back in the next 10 years i.e. undiscounted earnings of about $400 billion over the next 10 years at a very high IRR. If such a large profit pool at supremely high attractive rates of return does not attract competition and drive it down to more normal levels, I would be very surprised. Not saying it is going to happen, but that would be the way to bet IMO.

 

Thanks

 

Vinod

 

I think the two most important things for apple are:

1) Keeping people who have a real sense of style, design, etc., and empowering them to make some of the big decisions.

2) Being willing to cannibalize their other products to innovate.

 

I'm not sure this is enough, and I'm not sure they can do this either, but these are necessary for their success.

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I think there's a serious need for Apple to consider that there are more important things in life than profit at any cost, especially the health, welfare and safety of the people actually assembling their products - I think this is an absolute disgrace:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/business/ieconomy-apples-ipad-and-the-human-costs-for-workers-in-china.html

 

THE IECONOMY

In China, Human Costs Are Built Into an iPad

By CHARLES DUHIGG and DAVID BARBOZA

Published: January 25, 2012

 

The explosion ripped through Building A5 on a Friday evening last May, an eruption of fire and noise that twisted metal pipes as if they were discarded straws.

 

Two people were killed immediately, and over a dozen others hurt. As the injured were rushed into ambulances, one in particular stood out. His features had been smeared by the blast, scrubbed by heat and violence until a mat of red and black had replaced his mouth and nose.

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Guest valueInv

Valueinv, All of your projections are product projections.  In reality the growth you are talking about has never happened before.  Consumers, suppliers, and business people are fickle.  I could go on, and on.  All of your assumptions presuppose that Apple will out market, out innovate, and somehow thwart basic consumer fickleness, Q after Q, year, after year.  I think they stumble sometime later is year.  The thread will still be here.  I will check back then.

 

Time to check back on this thread:

 

http://venturebeat.com/2012/08/27/apple-stock-market-cap-high/

 

Uccmal, six months after your prediction of $500-$600B, we are already 5% above your upper limit.

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Guest valueInv

Valueinv, I see that.  So where to from here? 

 

Do you have a target at which you will sell your shares?

 

I don't have a target. I look at it bottom up, the products, market(share), performance against competitors, etc. That's what will drive market cap, not how big they already are or how big companies have historically gotten. They still have a long way to go before they saturate their existing markets let alone new markets that they will enter.

 

Are smartphones going to commoditize or consolidate?

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/28/foxconn-international-holdings-registers-226-million-loss-due-to-dismal-phone-orders/

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