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your call on pfizer


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Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 11.58

Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-10) 1: 6.15

Price/Sales (ttm): 1.97

Price/Book (mrq): 1.66


at least the numbers say they might be really cheap


Earnings History Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09

EPS Est 0.54 0.60 0.59 0.49

EPS Actual 0.55 0.62 0.65 0.54

Difference 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.05

Surprise % 1.9% 3.3% 10.2% 10.2%


the results this quator were also good.

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I think Pfizer has a potential to easily double from here.  People always gripe about their drug pipeline but they are in the position where they can easily raise cash buy selling off older drugs and buying future blockbusters.


I wont be buying any simply because FFH holds roughly 1.5 shares of pfizer/ffh share.  That's got me covered. 

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I recommend you look at the fairholme fund site.  They have a conference call with the PFE CEO and CFO.  Bruce Berkowitz has made PFE a 19-20% position in the fund!  talk about confidence in his position. I hope he's right!  His general take is that the guys in charge are businessmen, unlike before when they were scientists.  They have an unbeatable distribution system in a highly regulated industry.  Apparently they are growing their generics business and are looking to be the distribution partner for other smaller companies that can't handle the distribution by themselves.  I think he also talks about them in the OID interview which is also posted on his fund's website.

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I don't really understand Fairholme argument full of applause for the change in strategy in the generic business. they say that Pfizer in a couple of years will be number one in the generic business, a business they were not interested in before.

But I don't see what kind of competitive advantage Pfizer has in the generic business. It is not the same distribution network, there is no brand, etc. They say it is a 20% margin business but what if every pharmaceutical company goes in this business?

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