How Bad Is Europe?

[moore_capital54]

Did anyone see the market rally today over the last few minutes? All that was due to a rumour about China buying Italian debt. This market will light like a firecracker due to the artificially depressed interest rates. Just imagine we get a single dose of good news.

 

All I see is bad news all day every day on every station.

 

My wife and I had dinner with a very wealthy couple in Toronto on Friday. The wife couldn't stop talking about the demise of the dollar and the US and how we are so lucky to be Canadian, the husband an heir to a media fortune, said they sold all their equities and are only invested in gold bullion and Canadian gics. These people have no equity exposure since mid August. The market moves so quickly, I can see with our investors the same trend.

 

Equity markets have lost almost 10 Trillion in wealth since mid August. I bet you all that equity market exposure has declined substantially for the avg. joe investor. The market can literally shoot back up on any dose of good news. Nobody likes to earn 0.25% interest, that only looks good when equities are declining and there appears to be headline risk. The market has declined for 19 of 25 days, things will turn here soon.

 

 

 

 

[bmichaud]

So now in 2011, when I see some equities trading at March 2009 levels, (Think BP, CSCO etc) why would I not buy hand over fist? I have the cash to deploy, and my job is to invest it. Why wait? I am not a market timer. These exogenous events will correct themselves and if history is an indicator it will most likely be due to an artificial intervention by central banks.

 

This makes sense - I am finding the same thing, I think I am just getting too caught up in the belief that we're in a secular bear and all equities, under & overvalued, will decline if the overall market continues to decline. I'm struggling to reconcile those two things (undervalued securities in a generally overvalued market).

[bmichaud]

Bmichaud I don't agree with that. European equities are extremely attractive here, and if we go through the cycle you mention interest rates will be kept artificially low creating, at some point significant demand for equities.

 

I absolutely despise going into all these analysis as I am primarily a bottoms-up investor. But your last argument is effectively a gamble that equity values can decline more, after the STOXX 50 has already declined by 28% and the DAX is down 26%. I am not smart enough to know whether equities will decline further or today was the bottom. I just believe that buying stocks here will produce better returns than cash over time.

 

I am not satisfied with the quality of my posts today, due to a headache and absolutely no free-time, I apologize for the short-responses.

 

Regarding European stock markets, it looks like they are only approaching their 2009 lows (http://pragcap.com/european-markets-approach-their-credit-crisis-lows) and I would argue for their economies the econ environment is going to get a lot worse than back then. Perhaps I'm being too negative.

[moore_capital54]

The european stocks I follow are all lower than 2008/2009. Take CA FP for example (Carrefour) why wouldn't I buy it here? I get a 7% dividend yield while I wait for things to get better and I am getting the co at book value and am buying it at 2x 5 year trailing ebitda.

[moore_capital54]

OR Telefonica (TEF SQ) pays me 11% while I wait for the market to come back...

 

Great companies trading at valuations that don't make sense. Even if we revert to a barter economy, these shares will be worth more than these valuations.

[moore_capital54]

Or for all the Indians on the board, take a look at Reliance Communications (RCOM IN) We have been buying this as well. Truly undervalued here compared to global peers in the space. Wonderful company.

[bmichaud]

Good Lord those are cheap. I see what you're saying for sure.

[AZ_Value]

Moore Thanks for sharing,

 

I do think those are good companies (Telefonica and Carrefour) and I hadn't realized how cheap they were getting, I am definitely making it my next project to review and look to buy. A quick review shows me that Telefonica has barely missed a beat in their operations over the last few years so a person has got to like the idea of getting paid 11% to wait for correct valuation.

How many times have we told ourselves that the next time the market would serve us a new Spring 2009 we wouldn't hesitate to swing, and here I am starting to feel like I'm sitting on the sideline again.

 

Ron

 

[Valuebo]

It even seems TEF is paying a 12,5% gross dividend and is under it's 2009 low.

 

Question is wether their balance sheet can take a hit and how much of their income comes from troubled areas for that dividend to be substainable if things get worser. 60% of operating income seems to come from Latin America in 2010 and is growing. The business in Spain & Europe seem to be in decline. I have no opinion on it tho...

 

Companies like TEF with a lot of PIGS exposure but with strong growth in other markets could be very interesting as the sell-off continues. 

[PlanMaestro]

Moore Thanks for sharing,

 

I do think those are good companies (Telefonica and Carrefour) and I hadn't realized how cheap they were getting, I am definitely making it my next project to review and look to buy. A quick review shows me that Telefonica has barely missed a beat in their operations over the last few years so a person has got to like the idea of getting paid 11% to wait for correct valuation.

How many times have we told ourselves that the next time the market would serve us a new Spring 2009 we wouldn't hesitate to swing, and here I am starting to feel like I'm sitting on the sideline again.

 

Ron

 

Those are very good companies but still reliant on their Mediterranean ops. Coming from Latin America I can tell that if some of those countries leave the Euro the asset devaluation can be huge. Now, the US or European companies exporting or with international ops look appetizing w/o the same risk. I prefer to have those local ops companies as back-up option in case of a devaluation: selling the 4xFCF ones going to 3x to buy 3x going to 1x.

[moore_capital54]

CA FP is a lot less risky than Telefonica. But Telefonica has 227 million mobile phone subscribers, tv subscribers, internet subscribers. This is equivalent to an entire US population worth of subscribers. Telefonica will do fine over time.

 

AZ I would like to hear about some of your local ops companies as I enjoy your posts, and feel as though you are a talented investor.

[S2S]

It's been some time since I last reviewed TEF, but IIRC its dividends are significantly less secured than, say, FTE or DTEGY. I doubt the stock prices will go anywhere until the whole EU situation gets resolved, the timeline of which I have zero clarity on.

 

Hell, even the US rural telcos (CTL, WIN, FTR) are yielding double digits. They face an entirely different set of issues though.

[moore_capital54]

For the younger investors here, I have an idea for you to take a crack on: It's Eurobank EUROB GA

 

Would be happy to hear your thoughts (keep in mind its merging with Alpha)

[AZ_Value]

I am long FTR (and waiting for it to show me some love) but I would think that I'd feel more comfortable long term with the customer base that Telefonica has rather than FTR. But then again I need to review Telefonica in more detail to make any call.

 

But regardless, Moore's point is valid in my opinion, all the doomsday news we wake up to everyday is contributing to drive down prices in European companies that will continue to be around whether Europe is broken up, or it kind of staggers along for a while, or that it recovers miraculously. One just needs to make sure to buy at good prices with a margin of safety. And with prices in Europe going back to March 2009 lows I am starting to get excited.

[oddballstocks]

I'm finding a lot of values in Europe as well right now, similar things to Moore.  I dug through Portuguese companies a few months back and ended up purchasing two.  One of them does almost all of their business outside of Portugal the other 80% is local but the work is less elastic.  I need to look through again, I believe the market P/E is around 5, the country isn't going to disappear and a lot of the companies are very export oriented so the risk isn't concentrated 100% in Portugal.

 

Some European valuations are just crazy low right now.  I took a look at CA:FP before the Dia spin but decided to wait.

 

I think the European telecoms are probably a pretty safe bet, people aren't going to give up their cell phones, the expense is low enough that most people can find $30 or $40 a month to pay.  I own America Movil, I need to take a look at Telefonica.  I believe TEF owns the other side of the Latin American phone oligopoly along with America Movil, I guess I'd own a monopoly position at that point..

 

This is a great thread, I'd love to see some other European ideas people have. 

[Uccmal]

I have mentioned this before:

 

Royal Bank of Scotland - specifically RBS preferreds - I have held since spring 09 - Gradually reduced my position until August.  Have bought up a more than full position for me.  50% discounted to par value -13% yield at prevailing prices.  Trade in New York.

 

RBS has roughly 900 m Lb exposure to Greece some of which has already been written down, and about 1 B exposure to the others - S,P,and Ireland.  Total losses, if they materialized can easily be soaked up.  Backstopped by the UK government. 

 

Not so sure about the common RBS since it is 70% held by the government.  I figure they will keep it indefinitely until they can turn a decent profit returning it to the private sector. 

 

Credit to Dcollon in 2009.

 

Thanks for the other ideas Moore et al.  I am now in the position of having to sell excellent for even better which is gettiing increasingly difficult.

[moore_capital54]

UCCmal don't worry about it, we found ourselves reducing CSCO yesterday even though we love it to free up cash for "cheaper" buys. More important is to focus on avoiding permanent loss of capital.

[alpha231616967560]

RBS has roughly 900 m Lb exposure to Greece some of which has already been written down, and about 1 B exposure to the others - S,P,and Ireland.  Total losses, if they materialized can easily be soaked up.  Backstopped by the UK government. 

 

Ucc- where do you come up with your figure for exposure to Ireland, et al.? According to Morningstar RBS has >$40B exposure to Ireland via Ulster Bank (RBS subsidiary).

[Uccmal]

Alpha, I am talking about gov't bonds, not direct business.  From the 20k or recent AR.

[Uccmal]

Forgot Italy.....

 

100 million Ireland bonds, around 1 B total PIIS- already takenpartial impairment on Greek bonds. 

 

The Ulster business unit has taken most of its medicine over the last 3 years. 

[oec2000]

Without disagreeing with the point made by Moore and others here about the attraction of individual stocks (which makes sense), I have a tough time figuring out how Europe gets through its current problems without a significant slowdown brought on by fiscal austerity and a delevering of bank balance sheets.

 

Europe today has much higher govt debt as well as budget deficits to GDP than the US had in 2008 and will not be able to apply the same degree of fiscal response to an economic slowdown that the US could in 2008-9. This is likely to be aggravated by a central bank that is culturally more hawkish than the Bernanke Fed.

 

Just wanted to hear from others who follow Europe more closely whether they share this view or whether they see some other more positive points that I have missed. Also curious whether Europe has similar long term entitlement spending issues (on healthcare and social security that the US faces) that could start to become problems once the current fiscal austerity brings balance sheets into shape thus prolonging the economic headwinds.

 

Not my intention to turn this into a macro discussion of whether to invest in Europe or not but I believe it is useful to understand the macroeconomic landscape when figuring out what specific stocks to buy. (The kind of understanding that helped direct some of us into favouring FFH over other financials in 2008, for example).

[meiroy]

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/to-save-euro-turn-to-mutual-fund-banks-commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html

 

"The subtext of this fiscal crisis is the horrendous financial meltdown that sovereign defaults could trigger. The government bonds are held, in large part, by European banks. Many of them would be insolvent today were they marking the bonds to market. But, as the International Accounting Standards Board just confirmed, these lenders are booking this junk at much higher prices than the market will pay."

 

 

[Myth465]

Stocks are cheap and I, have been fully invested since March 2009. As of now I have 8% cash and will only buy on a down 4%-5% day and will sell on a pop up. I plan to hold what I have for the most part unless something runs pretty hard. This could go any number of ways and most of those ways will be brutal so I plan to wait to see where things end up. If I miss a 10 point rally so be it inmo.

 

Unlike 2008 there is no easy decision like bail everyone out and print the money. They could do that, but things will have to be fairly bad stock market and bond market wise before it came to that. All the other options look just as grim, everything is so interconnected and the key players seem pretty keen on staying apart...

[MrB]

"The subtext of this fiscal crisis is the horrendous financial meltdown that sovereign defaults could trigger. The government bonds are held, in large part, by European banks. Many of them would be insolvent today were they marking the bonds to market. But, as the International Accounting Standards Board just confirmed, these lenders are booking this junk at much higher prices than the market will pay."

 

Speaking of triggers. The Achilles heel of the Australian property bubble are the European banks. Aus households are more leveraged than the UK and US and are very dependent on offshore wholesale funding, which are provided by? You guessed it, European banks.

More than 80% of global derivatives ($580T notional) are in interest rate and currency derivatives and in the case of the US (about $280T) more than 90% of it sits with 5 banks. The EU is large enough to to upset that apple cart. However, the risk or lack of it is unknowable. So it could be the mother load or it could be nothing.

 

As for the reference to "booking this junk at much higher prices than the market will pay" Correct and I would add the lenders know and they have a fair idea of what is going on in other lenders' books. Hence TED is back in da house. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/c0ed02a4-de0d-11e0-a115-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Xrrpxu9d

 

However, despite all the gloom, if I see a cheap stock I'm buying. Also, we are entering the stage now of trading existing holdings for better value or similar value, but higher quality. I find that very tough to do, but it has always been very rewarding.

 

Finally, we have to ask ourselves what it felt like for a Japanese portfolio manager, investing in domestic stocks, over the last decade. Maybe something like this? For more than 10 years? Phew, that will wear me out.

 

Anyway, just a few thoughts...

 

[S2S]

Kyle Bass isn't very bullish...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44518427/