Did Someone Make $10B on $1B Bet on Downgrade?

[Parsad]

Thanks to Shai for the link!  The article discusses someone making a $1B futures bet which has paid off 10-1 after the downgrade?  Prem tell me that was you!  ;D  Cheers!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023809/Did-George-Soros-win-10-1-return-S-Ps-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html

[opihiman2]

Ugh, not the Daily Mail.  That is a dreadful piece of tabloid trash.  The article is just terrible all around: no real information, no credible sources cited, no anything worth reading.  First, if I recall, the bet was a short on Treasuries.  Whoever that person is, the thesis, I think, was for rates to skyrocket.  That has not happened.  The total purchase was for 8470 10-year treasury futures.  Each future has a notional value of $100,000 which means that it roughly corresponds to buying that much of a treasury bill. So the notional size of the bet is roughly 1 billion.  However, the future has barely move as a result of the downgrade.  As it currently stands, the bet hasn't even come close to paying off the 10 to 1 returns.  I don't know where they get that number from.

[Parsad]

Ophi, I'm guessing it wasn't you!  ;D  Cheers!

[opihiman2]

Today's bond action:

 

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=m5

 

Barely moved since the downgrade.  If he or she made any money on this bet, it is way less than $10 billion.  Probably near 10-30 million.

 

edit:

 

Man, if I have $1billion, I wouldn't be making bets at all!

[Smazz]

Oh, sorry did not see the B, no that was not me :)