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Jeremy Grantham's 1st Qtr. letter


gaf63
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Thx.  I hadn't read him in a few quarters, but it is always a pleasure - and this particular letter is probably the best I've seen in a long time, by anyone.

Conceptually not much new to most of us here on this board, but always good to be reminded of how bubbles go up and down.

 

Going on a tangent now... I don't think that playing these trends is not necessarily doing Technical Analysis, but rather behavioral investing.  Indeed, this is by far the most important reason why I'm still heavily long gold/silver in spite of being in it since 2003 already.  I won't convince anyone here I'm afraid.  No, I am no gold bug - merely someone who got lucky to figure out early that a new long-term trend was forming and jumped on the bandwagon.  I figure we still have this current intermediate cycle plus probably another one.  This is the Shumpeterian K-trend, 17 yrs up + 17 yrs down or whatever the number of years it is.  You just need one great investing decision every decade to do very very well.  But what goes up will come down, gold/silver will eventually crash and stocks indexes will then do great again.

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