Guest cherzeca Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I've owned this for over 5 years. Initially I would try to grasp the legal stuff but as the number of cases kept growing it all now goes over my head. I'm banking on the administration's public comments. My question from 10,000 foot level is. These guys have to know that there is a very real chance Trump is out of office a year from now, right? So whatever they want to do, they need to get it done or set it in motion within 12 months, right? Unless they've given up and plan to kick the can to the next administration, but what's the purpose in that? From public comments they have indicated they want to make a change in the status quo so why kick the can down? What am I missing here? neither trump nor mnuchin are focusing on GSEs. trump has plenty else to worry about and seems to have delegated it; mnuchin has plenty else to worry about (sanctions, tariffs etc), and seems to have delegated it to phillips who is gone,with no one else taking up the slack. I believe that mnuchin and Calabria have a plan and timeframe, and they got advice from DOJ that scotus would take up collins, so no rush no sweat. well that was wrong and furthermore, because the DOJ was late in filing for cert, collins mandate to district court is live and proceedings towards the largest financial judgment against the US in its history is "full steam ahead" (Thompson). so i expect things to heat up a bit and attention will start to be paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I believe that mnuchin and Calabria have a plan and timeframe, and they got advice from DOJ that scotus would take up collins, so no rush no sweat. well that was wrong and furthermore, because the DOJ was late in filing for cert, collins mandate to district court is live and proceedings towards the largest financial judgment against the US in its history is "full steam ahead" (Thompson). so i expect things to heat up a bit and attention will start to be paid. Tim Howard agrees... https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/01/16/how-we-got-to-where-we-are/#comment-14439 I would encourage readers to listen to the transcript of the call themselves. It’s only half an hour long, and David’s discussion is thorough, informative, and accessible to a generalist audience. For those looking just for a main “takeaway,” though, I would say it is that the administration is not likely to get certainty about the legality of the net worth sweep and Treasury’s liquidation preference in Fannie and Fannie before the end of this year, so if it wants to put in place an irreversible process for releasing Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship before the election—after which both FHFA Director Calabria and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin may no longer hold their current positions—it will need to initiate settlement discussions with plaintiffs without that legal certainty, and successfully conclude them by November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Thompson makes an interesting point in the IU CC about the administrative record. the Perry record signed by Ugoletti was inaccurate to put it mildly...now Ps have much deposition/documents to carefully review the collins admin record submitted by treasury. in other words, the heat is on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midas79 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Actual news: FHFA hired Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor. Next up: capital rule. https://twitter.com/hannahdlang/status/1224444959173931010 Breaking: FHFA has picked Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser with a $45 million contract as the agency works to develop a roadmap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Actual news: FHFA hired Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor. Next up: capital rule. https://twitter.com/hannahdlang/status/1224444959173931010 Breaking: FHFA has picked Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser with a $45 million contract as the agency works to develop a roadmap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship apparently one year at $9.5MM extendable by fhfa. using moelis blueprint as a copy/paste, this will be the easiest $9.5MM ever made on Wall Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Actual news: FHFA hired Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor. Next up: capital rule. https://twitter.com/hannahdlang/status/1224444959173931010 Breaking: FHFA has picked Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser with a $45 million contract as the agency works to develop a roadmap for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship Seems like Treasury pre-screened Houlihan a few months ago... https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-09-04/treasury-discussed-hiring-houlihan-to-advise-on-fannie-freddie?__twitter_impression=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Interesting... FHFA renames the "Division of Conservatorship" to the "Division of Resolutions" https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-Realignment-of-its-Agency-Structure.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Can someone help me understand the topic on ‘Changes to Capital Standard”? https://groups.google.com/forum/#%21forum/fannie-and-freddie-preferreds I thought you all were projecting zillion common shares for each preferred that I would get in conversion? A trillion common shares for every pref share, Emily, not a zillion. Be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midas79 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report. I eagerly await Chris's analysis here. For me, this might be the government's last gasp before starting settlement talks, with the government trying to figure out where they stand in case they need political cover for settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 "ultimate termination of this litigation" mentioned in today's joint status report. I eagerly await Chris's analysis here. For me, this might be the government's last gasp before starting settlement talks, with the government trying to figure out where they stand in case they need political cover for settling. Sweeney needs to be told by the parties that certifying questions for interlocutory appeal is important, and saying that this might be outcome determinative does this and is nothing to fret about. Cooper & Kirk has apparently decided that Ps have a good hand and certifying for appeal whether Ps have a good derivative claim is in its best interest. Sweeney might even certify the shareholder standing question in Wash Fed that she hasn't answered yet. if the strategy is to turn up heat on govt to promote settlement, then certifying an appeal now rather than later moves up the "come to Jesus" fish or cut bait timeline for govt to get off the pot. edit: imagine you are at a poker table and govt says I see you and raise, and Ps say gee thanks, I see you and raise you too. if you have a winning hand, you play it like a winner, and Ps seem to be on this wavelength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investorG Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)... thanks. no potential 4th amendment until post election, if ever. unfortunately the leaders deemed it too hot for them to handle despite the cover from the Collins appeals court. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Updated ACG timeline attached (as of February 3, 2020)... thanks. no potential 4th amendment until post election, if ever. That's not what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investorG Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Dick Bove, fwiw... https://valuewalk.com/fannie-mae/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments. your missing the point. you have to understand the read through from seila to collins. rule of law guy will be writing on this soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 ...if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria... Still don't understand why Buffett's name doesn't come up in discussion. Great cover for the administration (can announce with picture of Buffett receiving Presidential Medal of Freedom from Obama), perfect legacy solution/career capstone to Buffet's cash problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 ...if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria... Still don't understand why Buffett's name doesn't come up in discussion. Great cover for the administration (can announce with picture of Buffett receiving Presidential Medal of Freedom from Obama), perfect legacy solution/career capstone to Buffet's cash problem. There were rumors, albeit not discussed on the COB&F boards as far as I know, that Freddie executives were in Omaha back in early November. Probably just for a nice steak dinner and nothing more. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investorG Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 The Supreme Court still likely has a few weeks left to take the Collins case and complete it this term (by jul1). It's not unreasonable that they should take this case. However if they follow current conventional wisdom and pass for now, we then wait for Seila's result to determine Calabria's likely fate. If Calabria's equivalent wins and is entrenched for the full 5 year term with firing only for cause, then the pressure for rapid action (all things equal) seemingly declines because even if Trump loses there's still time for a potential 4th amendment late this year and then Calabria takes over the plan execution in 2021+. However if Seila decides Calabria is exposed, there's very large risk to shareholders because a potential 4th amendment + consent decree package is possibly reversible by a new admin + FHFA head. Two caveats to this may be: if they pull off a large offering (ideally with a democrat investor) which makes it too far to turn back and/or calabria or his deputy can last longer through 2021 than expected due to some technicalities. Given the makeup of the SC are there any good guesses on the Seila outcome? The Fifth circuit seems pretty clear (12-4) that he needs to be fire-able? Obviously people would guess better post the oral arguments. your missing the point. you have to understand the read through from seila to collins. rule of law guy will be writing on this soon I will look out for it. It's been 3.5 months for Judge Atlas without a peep. Does she wait for the final accept / decline from the SC? Do Senior Judges take longer for action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Public offering "neither too little nor too big" according to IMF: I like the "not too big" part, although it's admittedly ambiguous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b? True, even if they call it what it is (an SPO), 200B would still dwarf the largest which I think was 70B or so...but don't quote me on that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Like the sound of that too, although just the right amount is the same as the amount they need... All this talk of 200b spo must be ridiculous when you consider in the history of the universe the largest ipo was, what, 25.6b? True, even if they call it what it is (an SPO), 200B would still dwarf the largest which I think was 70B or so...but don't quote me on that number. Yeah, I've since seen Midas's post too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Yeah, I've since seen Midas's post too! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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