FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[orthopa]

I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

 

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

 

Im surprised the market even bothers to take divs into account at this point with some trading at the % of par that they are. 10 years into this mess for some reason that is still respected.

[rros]

I love how fake press tries to shape public opinion. They tried to put Jamie dimon as treasury secretary and Dimon really wanted it.

 

Imfpubs now spreading rumors that it will be in 2021 , 14 years, that we will see reform in and demarco who tried to gut gse’s is coming back as fhfa director (may be the biggest joke of 2018).

 

Casey research puts out a piece on bitcoin that it is going to 50,000 and now puts out that it is going to 0 on july 21. And asking you to buy marijuana stocks as they think the whole america will soon be dopey.

 

So called experts are useless with their fake news. Beware.

C'mn Emily. All the experts you need are here. No more imfpubs for you! I am predicting the start of a recession by July lol. More likely,  lots of R talk by the summer. Can Paolo even perform my Oracle magic?

[investorG]

I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

 

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

 

Im surprised the market even bothers to take divs into account at this point with some trading at the % of par that they are. 10 years into this mess for some reason that is still respected.

 

probably the dividend correlation increases when limited positive news is expected over the near term (now).  it likely shrunk when there was noise of resolution in the corker bill.

[investorG]

was the government's reply due last Thursday in the Delaware case?  I don't see it on gselinks.

[onyx1]

[rros]

So, what is the agenda?

[Luke 532]

So, what is the agenda?

 

Yep.

 

Well, we know what the agenda is for the RNC.

[rros]

So, what is the agenda?

 

Yep.

 

Well, we know what the agenda is for the RNC.

It can only be an agenda that, presumably, Watt doesn't support. Moelis?

[DRValue]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-unveils-fix-for-restoring-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

 

I can't reconcile Mnuchin's comments about replacing the FHFA director with someone who supports the agenda. Didn't Watt write a paper advocating for a utility model for shareholder owned companies? What was in it that Mnuchin may not agree with? If he agrees with it, is the delay just so Mnuchin can get some leverage?

 

Mnuchin said a government guarantee for 30 year mortgage was necessary but didn't say a model (implicit or explicit). Could be argued that an implicit guarantee is all that's needed.

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-unveils-fix-for-restoring-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

 

I can't reconcile Mnuchin's comments about replacing the FHFA director with someone who supports the agenda. Didn't Watt write a paper advocating for a utility model for shareholder owned companies? What was in it that Mnuchin may not agree with? If he agrees with it, is the delay just so Mnuchin can get some leverage?

 

Mnuchin said a government guarantee for 30 year mortgage was necessary but didn't say a model (implicit or explicit). Could be argued that an implicit guarantee is all that's needed.

 

anyone see the interview?  saying that next year trump can replace watt and whoever is next director must agree with agenda doesnt necessarily mean that mnuchin thinks watt doesnt agree with program, depending on context of question and how he answered

[SnarkyPuppy]

My quick take-

 

Mnuchin wants an explicit guarantee but doesn't want receivership/end of the current GSEs.

- watt likely won't agree to Mnuchin acting administratively to implement explicit backstop or won't allow Mnuchin to act administratively at all sans congress legislation

- congress likely won't come up with legislation with current GSEs around (e.g. public shareholder model)

 

Once Treasury has an FHFA director that will be agreeable on both -> recap with explicit guarantee + utility structure

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

My quick take-

Mnuchin-bad.

 

Watt-good.

[SnarkyPuppy]

My quick take-

Mnuchin-bad.

 

Watt-good.

 

Why is Paulson still in this trade and concurrently estimating high degrees of confidence?  Is he uninformed? Has he really had no conversations w Mnuchin? 

[blackcoffee]

My quick take-

Mnuchin-bad.

 

Watt-good.

 

how is Watt good?

[investorG]

So, what is the agenda?

 

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative. 

 

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

 

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

 

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.

[investorG]

My quick take-

Mnuchin-bad.

 

Watt-good.

 

how is Watt good?

 

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.

[investorG]

My quick take-

 

Mnuchin wants an explicit guarantee but doesn't want receivership/end of the current GSEs.

- watt likely won't agree to Mnuchin acting administratively to implement explicit backstop or won't allow Mnuchin to act administratively at all sans congress legislation

- congress likely won't come up with legislation with current GSEs around (e.g. public shareholder model)

 

Once Treasury has an FHFA director that will be agreeable on both -> recap with explicit guarantee + utility structure

 

it's highly unlikely he can slap an explicit guarantee on without congress; among other reasons, this is likely why he's waiting another year.

[investorG]

So, what is the agenda?

 

Yep.

 

Well, we know what the agenda is for the RNC.

It can only be an agenda that, presumably, Watt doesn't support. Moelis?

 

there might be some areas where he agrees with watt (hopefully shareholder owned utility) and some areas where he doesn't (3pct down payments)?  the new fhfa director will theoretically be fully on board with mnuchin's view.

[blackcoffee]

My quick take-

Mnuchin-bad.

 

Watt-good.

 

how is Watt good?

 

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.

 

I don't think that makes his presiding over the draining of capital at the companies any better. Oh good I wrote a paper that gave you political cover! Oh wow thanks! Good job stealing all the money for the goverment for a decade.

[undervalued]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-unveils-fix-for-restoring-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

 

I can't reconcile Mnuchin's comments about replacing the FHFA director with someone who supports the agenda. Didn't Watt write a paper advocating for a utility model for shareholder owned companies? What was in it that Mnuchin may not agree with? If he agrees with it, is the delay just so Mnuchin can get some leverage?

 

Mnuchin said a government guarantee for 30 year mortgage was necessary but didn't say a model (implicit or explicit). Could be argued that an implicit guarantee is all that's needed.

 

anyone see the interview?  saying that next year trump can replace watt and whoever is next director must agree with agenda doesnt necessarily mean that mnuchin thinks watt doesnt agree with program, depending on context of question and how he answered

 

Anyone concerned about Maria in the video? She looks less attractive than usual.

[Luke 532]

You should all sell shares like me so that handout is even bigger and fhfa director can reduce the donwpaymnet from 3% to 0%. And increase the trust fund to zillions. And increase number of FHFA  lawyers defending the outflow of funds from the very companies he is to conserve.

 

Dear College Student trying to get by,

 

Thank you for the investment advice.

 

Yours truly,

Self-made millionaires on this board (via investing)

 

Just messing with you, Emily.  But seriously, I can sense you are letting your inner Captain Kirk steer the ship instead of relying on your inner Spock.  It should be the other way around.

[blackcoffee]

I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

 

I've often found the olds like to pretend that hard work and their skills somehow make them great. I'd argue that they just got the money first, before it was inflated into dogshit.

 

Don't take my word for it. ask ole Druck

- he's probably a little higher level than the msg board folk.

 

[Luke 532]

I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

 

Was just having fun with you.  Look, you have a lot going for you... you're young and you have been following very closely one of the most complicated investments you're likely to encounter in your entire life.  There is value in that.  Keep plugging away and work at keeping emotions in check and you'll be fine, whether it is with the GSE's or elsewhere.

[Guest cherzeca]

i watched the video.  when mnuchin said govt guarantee, the context was FnF.  there was no prior mention of a treasury backstop.  is it clear to everyone when he said govt guaranty he meant treasury, rather than a guaranty by a GSE? 

 

i happen to think it was a very poor interview.  maria needs more sleep

[rros]

So, what is the agenda?

 

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative. 

 

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

 

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

 

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.

But turning on the commitment fee would change things little. Except for us. It doesn't look like he is going out of his way to help hedge funds/shareholders. Something has changed. The opposite more likely as these appearances happen at the exact moment of shares on the verge of a breakout. Anybody has any reason to believe J Powell and perhaps Mnuchin are in an Andrew Mellon “purge the rottenness out of the system” mission? Yellen would have stabilized markets long time ago. No help for markets, no help for hedge funds, no help for us. Why end the sweep, then?