investorG Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 Berkowitz on gov't finally releasing thousands of documents on NWS theft (attached)... luke, what is this from please? thank you.
investorG Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 fairholme downsized f&f position http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017Annual.pdf They sold 22M shares of FMCKM. Those multiple 1M share blocks over the last few months must have been Fairholme. it appears he did cut around 40pct of his shares. part of this went to raising the fund's cash levels, and part to other positions (and maybe for redemptions?). but remember this is 2 months stale data (nov30), whereas his letter is fresh as of this week. lots of preferreds have traded lately, he could be much bigger or smaller at the moment.
Luke 532 Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 Berkowitz on gov't finally releasing thousands of documents on NWS theft (attached)... luke, what is this from please? thank you. I've removed it. Saw it on Twitter and posted before I verified if it was accurate or not. I couldn't verify so I have removed it. My mistake.
hardincap Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 Berkowitz on gov't finally releasing thousands of documents on NWS theft (attached)... luke, what is this from please? thank you. I've removed it. Saw it on Twitter and posted before I verified if it was accurate or not. I couldn't verify so I have removed it. My mistake. That was from last year. For such strong words you’d expect him to at least hold
rros Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 fairholme downsized f&f position http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017Annual.pdf They sold 22M shares of FMCKM. Those multiple 1M share blocks over the last few months must have been Fairholme. it appears he did cut around 40pct of his shares. part of this went to raising the fund's cash levels, and part to other positions (and maybe for redemptions?). but remember this is 2 months stale data (nov30), whereas his letter is fresh as of this week. lots of preferreds have traded lately, he could be much bigger or smaller at the moment. So far, the Funds have realized $140 million of gains from Fannie and Freddie investments over the past four years. I would expect further gains from any Trump Administration-led initiative. Maybe he felt the need to show something to his shareholders after so many years of holding this. He said before he was trading a chunk of it. The big run up in December may have led to lightening up.
orthopa Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 I know its healthy to have a leery approach and trust no one but I have not seen to date any action or comment by Mnuchin that would lead me to believe shareholders cant trust him. That remains to be seen of course. Phillips' comments put him closer to mba plan than moelis, according to tim howard. philips said if c+w fails he will give it another chance after aug, and gave zero indication that he would consider administrative action. still want to go all in? Not all in but did add more. I think we have hashed out over almost 950 pages either you go with your gut and push your chips in or pull em out. Mine are still in with Berkowitz, Paulson, Ackman and Perry
Midas79 Posted February 1, 2018 Posted February 1, 2018 An IMF News piece says that Warner doesn't even support the Corker bill. However, the measure lacks the backing of Sen. Mark Warner, D-VA, who five years ago co-authored a GSE reform measure that eventually went nowhere When asked whether Warner approves of Corker’s draft, a spokeswoman was noncommittal, saying: “To get his support, any proposal would have to have strong affordability provisions, including enhanced assistance for first-time homebuyers.” That's much more significant news than Warren's opposition. If Warner doesn't even support this bill, will any Democrat at all vote for it?
Guest cherzeca Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 "That's much more significant news than Warren's opposition. If Warner doesn't even support this bill, will any Democrat at all vote for it?" not sure there will be unanimous repub support on committee...toomey is a level headed guy who is independent enough to actually think for himself. dont forget the standard bearer is a ticking lame duck; hard to lead when you are on your way out
TonyG Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 also, senator cotton is a trump devotee i believe and wouldn't support something trump wouldn't. also during one of the hearings with demarco this summer he was the only one that asked about what happens to the lawsuits
rros Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it.
investorG Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. low odds of the warrants included in the funding. quite low.
rros Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. low odds of the warrants included in the funding. quite low. it would be shocking, actually. On another front, from the latest AB article... Stevens said time is running out. “If this doesn’t start to take hold in both chambers within the next couple weeks," he said, "then we are going to end up with some form of administrative reform.”. couple of weeks... from the horse's mouth.
investorG Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. low odds of the warrants included in the funding. quite low. it would be shocking, actually. On another front, from the latest AB article... Stevens said time is running out. “If this doesn’t start to take hold in both chambers within the next couple weeks," he said, "then we are going to end up with some form of administrative reform.”. couple of weeks... from the horse's mouth. thanks. sounds like he's trying to get some momentum. if they get traction, we'll see what happens. if not, decent chance that mnuchin would wait to see what congress looks like for 2019 before launching admin action.
Eye4Valu Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. low odds of the warrants included in the funding. quite low. it would be shocking, actually. On another front, from the latest AB article... Stevens said time is running out. “If this doesn’t start to take hold in both chambers within the next couple weeks," he said, "then we are going to end up with some form of administrative reform.”. couple of weeks... from the horse's mouth. thanks. sounds like he's trying to get some momentum. if they get traction, we'll see what happens. if not, decent chance that mnuchin would wait to see what congress looks like for 2019 before launching admin action. You may very well be right, but he did say 2018 was the year to resolve the GSEs. Of course, he previously said second half of 2017.
Guest cherzeca Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. most plans do not detail funding, they detail spending. funding will be appropriations, or something else if not appropriated
Guest cherzeca Posted February 2, 2018 Posted February 2, 2018 Cohn (Bloomberg) just said Trump will announce a detailed infrast. plan during the month of February. Apparently, they worked with Mulvaney on how to fund it. most plans do not detail funding, they detail spending. funding will be appropriations, or something else if not appropriated mnuchin's running out of excuses. tax act? check. congress move first? it moved alright, a bowel movement draft #29. how long is his fuse?
rros Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 I read that all of the supreme court judges read the filing well before the Feb 16th conference and then discuss it. If they take the case, doesn't it mean that they do really believe lower courts were not fair? and Plaintiff's have a high probability of winning the case? It is weird that it is in 2 weeks and so is the infrastructrure plan. I found some data that shows 64.5% of DC Circuit cases were reversed/vacated by Supreme Court but this data is only from 1999-2008. It appears more reversals after 2008 but not sure. If true, and if GSE Certiorari is accepted, it should be good news ? Just 2 weeks to decide to buy more if supreme court accepts. I think you are being naively optimistic. That said, as chances of an administrative solution grow while the chances of Congress succeeding diminish a blowout from a scotus rejection may be less dramatic. Remember, all courts have found agreement on this: “It strikes this court as odd that a statute like HERA, through which Congress grants immense discretionary power to the conservator, and prohibits courts from interfering with the exercise of such power, would still house an implicit end-run around FHFA’s conservatorship authority by means of the shareholder derivative suits that the statute explicitly bars,” Judge Lamberth wrote. “The plaintiff’s grievance is really with Congress itself.” Judge Royce Lamberth. Why would the Supreme Court be any different? If scotus closes the door on us Congress will become the sole player. Still, a disappointing outcome from scotus will only make Congress failure a much larger victory for us. It will then be all Trump. And given his obstinacy to go against Obama I will be shocked to ever find out that the NWS is the only thing that Trump readily embraces from the Obama era.
rros Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 I deleted it. Other forums are already cluttered with it . I am also not too sure if fannigate should take it to personal level. He is just doing his job. Who knows even many here post egregious stuff on yelp too. Exactly. This is like stalking the guy. Wrong approach.
Midas79 Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 Exactly. This is like stalking the guy. Wrong approach. Yeah. Personal attacks are definitely not the way to go here. Always take the high road, however hard it is.
rros Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 Going back to our concern... These 2 companies are going to be throwing a ton of cash from hedges as interest rates rise faster than expected. Rate of change matters. The disgust I will feel to see that being taken away by Treasury is equal in size to the love Mnuchin will feel. Which -the danger- will perpetuate the sweep.
Guest cherzeca Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 Going back to our concern... These 2 companies are going to be throwing a ton of cash from hedges as interest rates rise faster than expected. Rate of change matters. The disgust I will feel to see that being taken away by Treasury is equal in size to the love Mnuchin will feel. Which -the danger- will perpetuate the sweep. More non cash earnings than cash
Eye4Valu Posted February 4, 2018 Posted February 4, 2018 Mnuchin is on the record stating that F&F should be preserved and removed from government control. He's not in it to fund Obamacare or slush fund, and he's not going to place them in receivership. When CW2.0 fails, which is likely soon, Mnuchin/Watt have the green light for administrative reform together. Mnuchin is not going to wait until November to look down at his cards or stare the other players down. He already knows what cards he has, and knows the other players have zilch. I expect administrative reform to take place this year based on utility model. That is Plan A. SCOTUS and Fed. Ct. of Claims are Plans B and C, respectively. CWdon't have a plan. Draft 29 or whatever it was is nonsensical.
rros Posted February 5, 2018 Posted February 5, 2018 Mnuchin is on the record stating that F&F should be preserved and removed from government control. He's not in it to fund Obamacare or slush fund, and he's not going to place them in receivership. When CW2.0 fails, which is likely soon, Mnuchin/Watt have the green light for administrative reform together. Mnuchin is not going to wait until November to look down at his cards or stare the other players down. He already knows what cards he has, and knows the other players have zilch. I expect administrative reform to take place this year based on utility model. That is Plan A. SCOTUS and Fed. Ct. of Claims are Plans B and C, respectively. CWdon't have a plan. Draft 29 or whatever it was is nonsensical. Specially now that housing has been taking a real beating in the stock market. Len, NVR, tol, phm, etc. I also agree that by the summer this will look a *lot* different. Chris, you are right, non-cash. But the accounting gimmick will still get transferred.
orthopa Posted February 5, 2018 Posted February 5, 2018 Is Scotus denying Certiorari baked in the price? Looks like it after we have lost every court. If they accept, would that be a nice surprise and time to buy some more? SCOTUS is a waste of time to worry about or hope for. The notion that a court is somehow going to right a wrong and shower people with money is a foolish notion and complete waste of time. Move along from that and contemplate Mnuchins admin options since it appears congress has little to offer. Money made investment is going to be made from realization of a % of par +/- dividends for the preferred and future earnings for the common based after dilution and the success or not from the new business model.
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