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Bear market over?- Technical signs point to yes...


Mandeep
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What technicals?  Did you see how fast the markets have been bouncing?  bounces like this only occur during bear market rallies, and are most definitely not sustainable.  The economy is still getting worse, just the "rate of worsening" appears to be slowing down - if you make a trend out of the last month.  So yes, markets are also discounting machines; but much like Uccmal, Arbitragr and the others, I wouldn't discount the possibility of a new leg down (or at least of a retest of the lows).

 

 

Short term, it will probably go up a little longer since every one wants to believe the bull is alive.  Long term, it will be up as well; but in the medium term (few months), who knows?  Your (our) best bet is probably to focus on companies you know and like, and the price of which is low enough for your taste - there's gotta be quite a few even for picky investors me thinks

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Guest Broxburnboy

Looks like the current rally is just that... a bear market rally.

 

The latest short interest report I have is illuminating:

 

COMPANY                      MARCH  13      FEB 27    NET CHANGE PCT CHANGE

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES:

Citigroup Inc            998,753,223  203,334,316  795,418,907  391.19%

Bank of America Corp  172,157,974  111,271,089  60,886,885  54.72%

Wells Fargo & Co      156,049,848  116,063,853  39,985,995  34.45%

Pfizer Inc            120,406,621    92,919,285  27,487,336  29.58%

AIG                    182,944,981  156,048,049  26,896,932  17.24%

 

Looks like the short money (so far the only reliable money makers in this current environment) is bearish

and doesn't believe the financial sector recovery story.

 

Beware of technical analysis as the main tool for predicting the future ... it is mostly used

to confirm one's own existing prejudices.

 

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Beware of technical analysis as the main tool for predicting the future ... it is mostly used

to confirm one's own existing prejudices.

 

 

Broxburnboy,

 

 

I like to do high-level TA before making my purchasing decisions so I won't criticize fellow practitioners.  I also used to do this exclusively and found out that I could make good money IFF (if and only if) I managed to put my own biases in check.  Needless to say, my experience was that I'd bat 1.000 for a few days/weeks then start anticipating the market a little too much (greed) and... lose it all.  In other words, I really like that comment of yours, it is spot on! :)

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