Gonna be a massive Cane season on the East Coast

[opihiman2]

Knew this was gonna happen.  El Nino was all time this year for surf in Hawaii and Cali.  Coupled with a warm winter and shit snow in the Pac NW and really good snow in California, I had a feeling this was a strong El Nino.  And strong El Ninos are followed by strong La Ninas.  High probability of serious hurricanes on the East Coast:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

 

I'm hedging.

[Guest Bronco]

You seem angry or weird. 

[opihiman2]

You seem angry or weird. 

 

And you seem like a rude ass.  :o

 

[cwericb]

 

Just to set the record straight, the increased likelihood of a bad hurricane season on the East Coast is not exactly news and those of us who live here have been advised of this as far back as last Spring. So there is nothing at all new about this information and it has pretty well been general knowledge for many months.

 

Of course we were supposed to get some hurricanes last year and didn't so, I guess it is like most other weather forecasts - flip a coin.

 

However, hurricane development is stimulated by warm water and here in Atlantic Canada are experiencing considerably warmer waters than normal this year so that tends to confirm the forecasts of more hurricanes and of more severe hurricanes.

[Alekbaylee]

Don't know about NA but wonder what the impact the flooding in Poland will have on Fairfax via its polish subsidiary.  ???

[NormR]

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

 

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg

[JEast]

Norm,

 

I read about your graph the other day on the activity/energy was approaching near 30-year lows.  I pick up really odd items sometimes on the unique website 'Watts Up With That'.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/.  

 

One recent item was that per NOAA's own data (see attachment), the temperature trend is down over the last 10-years, but their publications are indicating rising temperatures.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

 

 

Cheers

JEast

[NormR]

LOL, that's where I got it from  :)

 

Predicting storms, more than a few days out, seems to rather prone to error . . .

[cwericb]

Seems like the local weather forecast. If you don't like it change the channel until you get a forecast you like!

 

I seem to recall statistics that the forecasts were right 55% of the time. Flip a coin and you would be right 50%, so how much does that extra 5% cost?

[NormR]

Seems like the local weather forecast. If you don't like it change the channel until you get a forecast you like!

 

Much much worse.  Local weather is basically pretty good (~80% right) 1 to 2 days out.  After all, with radar/satellite they can see it approaching.  The 5 day stuff is really a best guess.  When it comes to the few month/year/century stuff, well, I like the saying, "prediction is prejudice" or, as you say, "what forecast would you like?".  (I don't suppose you're an accountant.  ;) ;) ;) )