China macro

[rogermunibond]

Pretty interesting China macro observations from Li Daokui.  The tariff stuff is at the end and not nearly as interesting as the local bond debt burden issues that Beijing is tackling.

 

Going to have to pay attention to what comes from the NPC.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-03-03/china-fully-prepared-for-us-tariffs-ex-pboc-adviser-video

[treasurehunt]

7 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

Pretty interesting China macro observations from Li Daokui.  The tariff stuff is at the end and not nearly as interesting as the local bond debt burden issues that Beijing is tackling.

 

Going to have to pay attention to what comes from the NPC.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-03-03/china-fully-prepared-for-us-tariffs-ex-pboc-adviser-video

 

Very interesting interview; thanks for posting. So according to Li Daokui, policymakers' goals are clear even if specific policies might be issued only over a period of a year or two - swap out local government debt for central government debt and increase domestic consumption mostly by incentivizing local governments properly. Good to keep this in mind.

[Ulti]

https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5ef3c7300432b40ed865991a/67a4f75703627bd3a927077e_Global Value Investing in Our Era (2024-12-07).pdf
 

Global Value Investing in Our Era

Li Lu

Speech at the 10th Anniversary Celebration of the Value Investing Course, Guanghua School

of Management, Peking University, December 7, 2024

Thank you, Professor Jiang Guohua, Mr. Jing Chang, and all the teachers, colleagues, and students

who made this course possible! This year, during Professor Jiang's visit to the U.S., we discussed

how this course has had a meaningful impact in both academia and industry over the past ten

years. The number of online course applicants this year exceeded 1,000, which is a testament to

its success.

Ten years ago, when we decided to collaborate with Peking University to support the

establishment of this course, it was inspired by my personal experience. Thirty-five years ago,

when I first arrived in the U.S., Columbia University offered a similar course, which gave me the

opportunity to meet value investing guru Warren Buffett. This encounter profoundly changed the

trajectory of my life over the next three decades. So, we hoped to bring such opportunities and

ideas to young Chinese students as well.

Today, many friends and students are participating both in person (in Seattle) and virtually from

Beijing. Thank you for being here!

Without further ado, let me dive into the topics at hand. In my first talk in 2015, I discussed "The

Prospects of Value Investing in China." Five years later, in 2019, the topic was "The Theory and

Practice of Value Investing." Earlier this year, Professor Jiang visited Seattle to discuss ideas for

the 10th anniversary and invited me to speak again. Today, I would like to discuss "Global Value

Investing in Our Era."

Over the past five years, both China and the world have experienced many changes, causing

significant confusion for investors. Value investing, no matter where it is practiced, must be closely

tied to the era we live in. While value investing emphasizes bottom-up fundamental analysis, the

companies we invest in exist in a specific era and are inevitably influenced by various macro

factors. Thus, we cannot escape the times we live in. With that in mind, I would like to share some thoughts