The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why by Amanda Ripley

[Saluki]

This was a really great book to read on vacation, but I wish I read it at home so I could take more notes.  The author talks about many disasters and how people react in ways that help or hurt their chances to survive.  Common reactions to an earthquake, fire, or terrorist attacks, are doing what others are doing, freezing or panicking.  Why?  It includes a lot of research, including brain imaging studies (what type of brain will predict whether the person will panic and pull out their respirator under water?) .  Are there things that you can do to have the right actions ready when something happens.  

 

A few fascinating takeaways were that although most disaster preparedness consists of telling people to remain calm and wait for the professionals, the "first responders" are almost never fire or police, but regular folks. In fact, of the 3800 employees at Morgan, 99% of whom survived the WTC attack on 9/11, they survived because the head of security told them to ignore the intercom message that told them to stay where they are until help arrives, and led them out right away. 

 

The warnings set up by the government are practically useless.  If the terrorist alert color code goes from yellow to orange, what does that tell you to do besides worry? Shortly before the largest earthquake ever recorded happened in Valdivia, 9.5 Richter scale, a worldwide Tsumani warning system was established.  The people in Hawaii heard the sirens and had over 10 hours to get ready before the Tsunami hit, yet dozens died because they heard the sirens and didn't know what it meant. There are numerous videos of firefighters responding to fires in nightclubs and the people are just standing there while the wall behind them is engulfed in flames.  Why? 

 

A little bit of thinking of the worst possible event and how to respond could save your life.  It's got some relevance to investing too.  Like "thesis drift" and "anchoring" are applicable to both.  Recognizing that something is not normal and accepting reality rather than talking yourself into complacency is a big lesson. 

 

Things like periodic exposure to stress, overcoming tunnel vision, and "tactical breathing" that are commonly used by special forces to maintain clear thinking in emergency situations are applicable to other situations that you might find yourself in.  Highly recommend!  

[formthirteen]

Thanks. Will try to read this one. Last summer I was staying in a hotel on the top floor and the fire alarm went off in the middle of the night. Most people were looking out their hotel room doors instead of running out. For some reason it takes time to acknowledge you're in danger and in hindsight it took too long to exit. There was no smoke or fire, but I hope I had exited the building faster. It was a bit disorienting because I was half asleep and it was almost pitch dark. Walked out without shoes. There was only one way out down narrow and dark stairs. If there had been a fire on the first floor, it might have been best to stay in the room or fly out the window. It's easy to talk yourself into complacency when you see no smoke and people around you are standing still.

Edited July 1 by formthirteen

[james22]

Ordered.

 

Have you read Left of the Bang? Seems nicely complementary.

[Saluki]

On 7/16/2024 at 5:36 PM, james22 said:

Ordered.

 

Have you read Left of the Bang? Seems nicely complementary.

 

I haven't heard of it, but I'll add it to the list.  I'm currently reading a couple of similar books "Everyday Survival" and "Deep Survival" by Laurence Gonzales.  Very good at explaining things and has a great way with words.  

[Saluki]

On 7/1/2024 at 4:31 PM, formthirteen said:

Thanks. Will try to read this one. Last summer I was staying in a hotel on the top floor and the fire alarm went off in the middle of the night. Most people were looking out their hotel room doors instead of running out. For some reason it takes time to acknowledge you're in danger and in hindsight it took too long to exit. There was no smoke or fire, but I hope I had exited the building faster. It was a bit disorienting because I was half asleep and it was almost pitch dark. Walked out without shoes. There was only one way out down narrow and dark stairs. If there had been a fire on the first floor, it might have been best to stay in the room or fly out the window. It's easy to talk yourself into complacency when you see no smoke and people around you are standing still.

 

Yes, there's some famous fire at a catering hall that she discusses which is similar.  Most people did nothing until it was too late, then all crammed the exit and couldn't get out.  One person on their way out stopped at the bar and wanted them to make him a drink to go 

 

It reminded me of something that Nassim Taleb said:  "If you're going to overreact, do it early, because that's the only time it works.  If you wait until everyone does it, it's too late."  Which in hindsight was great advice in the great financial crisis or the pandemic. 

[Saluki]

 

This is relevant to the discussion. It happened a couple of days ago. People are supposed to be able to evacuate a plane in 90 seconds with half of the exits blocked.  All the exits besides the one in the back by the smoking laptop were available but it still took two and half minutes because people were doing exactly the wrong thing getting their bags. That blocks the aisle and makes it slower to go down the ramp. 

 

Most people freeze, follow their routine (I'm deplaning so I take my belongings just like every other time I've gotten off a plane), panic, or do what someone in authority tells them. 

 

This clip doesn't show it but the back was filling up with smoke and someone opened the back door (even though the stewardess told him not to) and threw the burning bag outside of the airplane (even though she ordered him to drop the bag ). He probably saved a lot of peoples lives, not because he had special equipment or training, but because he was able to think calmly and assess the situation and his options, then act decisively.