Any tips for deciding when to sell options?

[nafregnum]

Three months ago, I bought a few META calls ($200 strike June 2024 expiration) for around $6/share and they're quoted at $38/share today (up 120% just today)

 

I'm pretty inexperienced in how options behave, but from less fortunate experience I think I've learned that they swing big on surprises and then when the volatility calms down their value drops a LOT.  

 

Here's how I think it works, is this more or less right?

 

Decision 1: Sell today and take the 500% gain, because the value of these options is bound to drop a lot in the coming weeks. 

 

Decision 2: Hold on longer, hoping that the price goes above at least $238 before June 2024 in order to beat the current gain.  

 

For some of you more experienced with options, is this a complete no-brainer?  

[LC]

A larger-than-normal amount of the premium today is due to volatility. Selling today would capture that, if you want to remain long you could hope to repurchase similar options if the volatility premium ever normalizes. Of course, it may not behave the way you intend. But either way you are in a good position. 

[nafregnum]

Thanks @LC, I ended up selling 9 of the 10, so I can still watch the one just for the fun of seeing what happens.

[Stuart D]

Nice trade. Another option to selling is selling a slightly further out of the money call. This has the advantage of getting most of the premium up front with the possibility of delaying the transaction close to e.g. 2024.