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Russell Napier


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I read it this morning after a reco by Burry on twitter.


If what he says is remotely accurate, is there anyone more geared up for massive capex than Mr Greg Able running our big beautiful baby! May hinder the buybacks though



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  • 1 month later...

Read this again today. Really interesting piece. I noted his view that if there was a productivity boom the stagflation path could be avoided (I often think about the productivity gains we will get from WFH + increasing application of AI across industries...seems like bright days are ahead).

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Steve Clapham has a great newsletter and he attended the MoneyWeek Conference where Napier was the keynote speaker. here's a snippet 



From his newsletter - https://behindthebalancesheet.substack.com/


Russell Napier/Financial Repression

Russell Napier was the keynote speaker and he gave his usual session on the need for financial repression. I have heard the presentation several times (Russell is a friend), but he always manages to refresh the content and make it interesting. Of course, since I last heard it, the debt numbers have all gone up. Russell, in contrast to the modern monetary theorists, looks at a country’s debt as the sum of Government debt and corporate (non-financial sector) debt.

If you are an MMT enthusiast, you probably know that I don’t understand the theory – please email me and explain why the Government doesn’t solve all our problems by mailing $1m through everyone’s letterbox. (I shall probably regret this).

The problem is self evident from the chart, especially when you consider that debt servicing costs are exploding to the upside, from an all-time low. The global average is extremely high and the UK, US and Euro area are all ahead of that high average. What the gap between France (very high) and Germany (relatively low) means for the future of the ECB and the Euro is hard to predict, but I am guessing it’s not positive for the stability of the Euro and warm relations between the two main participants. The gap has grown from 12% at the formation of the Euro to over 150% today – a useful illustration of how unusual, recent history has been; more on this later.

Global Non-Financial Debt to GDP


Source: Behind the Balance Sheet from Russell Napier, The Solid Ground

It’s quite clear from this chart that there is more risk in DM than EM, especially if you consider that the EM indebtedness falls  below 200% if China is excluded. This is where Napier thinks you should put your money. Paying subscribers will learn later where I have put my biggest bet. Russell’s rule number 1 in a financial repression is simple: get your money out of the UK or the US and look at Asia.£"

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