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The NY Fed spends $53 billion to rescue the overnight lending market


LC

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  • 5 months later...

This is an old and potentially irrelevant topic (for the investing side, I plan to focus on Vail Resorts valuation in the next few days) but I just read an article (see below) that reminded me of 1-a recent thread (this one), 2-a small file I had prepared with references a few years ago and how 3-I am stupid and how hard it is to predict the future.

The potentially relevant conclusion and that sometimes precautionary principles fail to revert to evolutionary principles and that can eventually be costly.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-analysts-call-large-scale-015012371.html

The fascinating aspect (and one I never thought even remotely possible in 2008-9) is that the governments (US and most significant others) are not able (now entering another decade) to supply enough government securities in the ever-changing era of "scarcity". Even if they're trying really hard.

So, it is suggested now that the US should refinance by issuing a larger amount of securities with lower coupons. Maybe that will make sense when the government gets paid to issue debt to itself.

 

Anyways, in December 2008, the germ and dissemination of this disease was well underway.

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0812e.pdf

"...leading central banks have become more active in these markets, expanding the eligible collateral in lending operations, and providing more of a market intermediary role. The extent to which these new operating procedures become permanent or are phased out remains an important question for the future."

My huge failure was the inability to project the capacity of central banks to inflate their balance sheets and their potential to compromise the collateral held in their books. I guess we ain't seen nothing yet.

 

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