book recommendations on probability thinking

[RedDaruma]

All,

 

I have been wondering if there is any better way to sharpen my thinking based on probability. Is there any book recommendation? Most of the books I found on the internet is too academic and difficult to apply in investing (the data/numbers already exists etc).

 

Thank you in advance,

RD

[Liberty]

Might be useful: https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq

[Guest jeffswaldron]

That link was great, thank you.  I found Nassim Taleb helpful, but would be interested in the technical side -- for a dummy.

[Liberty]

That link was great, thank you.  I found Nassim Taleb helpful, but would be interested in the technical side -- for a dummy.

 

Have you read 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahneman?

 

And if you want more, you can go back to the original studies:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Judgment-Under-Uncertainty-Heuristics-Biases/dp/0521284147

 

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521627494/

[Sleepwell]

For the theory behind it, I think Annie Duke's book is great: Thinking in Bets

[rukawa]

The Book of Why is excellent and I highly recommend it.

[LC]

On the statistical side there are excellent YouTube series on all levels of probability and statistics. Ben Lambert has an excellent series on graduate level statistics. I personally prefer video lessons to textbooks but I can recommend texts if you’d like.

 

I would also recommend a textbook in formal logic as accompaniment. Any of the intro to logic texts will do - the Hacking text would be a good starter.

 

I personally find the latter a really useful skillset to have - all the great thinkers had some level of logic/philosophical training, and I find it useful for investment analysis as well.