1 stock for next 15 years

[20ppy]

TSLA

[BargainValueHunter]

SYCRF

SCHF (ETF)

FTP

MBI

FIG

[Capitalist World]

Nice to see some discussion on Syncora SYCRF  OTC -  For value hunters watch the earnings release on Dec 20th to see the unveiling of the new Syncora:  New directors, new direction, post refinancing of some Notes, Book value around $6.50 or higher, the last eight years they have been in rehab under LeBlanc as CFO (who just recently moved to CEO rile at Ambac after a masterful job at Syncora).  Syncora will begin a new life with more disclosure, regular financials and conf calls.  Whole slew of possible catalysts for 2017 including:

Possible uplisting;

litigation settlements from Lehman, Greenpoint, Macquaire;

Continued loss mitigation and commutations, (PR and Reliance Rail);

Planned use of NOL's at holding co level and op level;

More disclosure on value of American Roads sub and possible move into infrastructure space,

New business lines

 

Stay tuned

 

[Uccmal]

Inverting a bit: 

 

What companies, industries are not a good 15 year investment:

 

I would suggest:

1) Deep cyclicals of any kind: Banks, Commodities, Automotive except perhaps Tesla (which may not turn out to be automotive in the end).  Mosty in 15 years you dont know where you sit in the cycle. 

2) Many tech companies - hard to itemize and pick winners and losers. 

3) Big Pharma - i.e. Merck, Eli Lily, Pfizer, GSK: At some point I think they are going to finally get their Big tobacco moment, particularly those that market SSRIs, Cholesterol drugs, -and an assortment of Opiods.  Specifically those that have invented  illnesses, and then sold drugs that allegedly cure the invented illness such as Lipitor, or Crestor.  I noticed that Buffett seems to stay clear of these.  He has never said why. 

 

When you get right down to it, there isn't much that isn't already listed by others.  I am not sure how I feel about owner operators, when the prime decision maker is no longer there.  We have seen companies continue to excel, and others flail.  How do you know FFh will do well if Prem gets sidelined?  BAM has a longer runway, and a more manageable profile than the insurance industry. 

 

Difficult. 

 

[John Hjorth]

... When you get right down to it, there isn't much that isn't already listed by others. ...

 

... Difficult.

 

Uccmal,

 

Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.

[rb]

Uccmal,

 

Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.

Nah, you don't need a thread. It's a very simple. Do not invest money for your mother-in-law! More gray with the sister-in-law but maybe best to stay away from that as well.

[doughishere]

I would ask, What stock have you held for the last 15 years?

[rb]

I would ask, What stock have you held for the last 15 years?

I'm not that old so by design I wouldn't have a lot of stocks that I've held for 15 years. But TD is coming up on 15 years for me.

[John Hjorth]

Uccmal,

 

Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.

Nah, you don't need a thread. It's a very simple. Do not invest money for your mother-in-law! More gray with the sister-in-law but maybe best to stay away from that as well.

 

rb,

 

Hah! - Then you'll get the honor to open the new topic, in stead of Uccmal? [For my part, I can assure you, it will be a bit entertaining].

[rb]

Uccmal,

 

Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.

Nah, you don't need a thread. It's a very simple. Do not invest money for your mother-in-law! More gray with the sister-in-law but maybe best to stay away from that as well.

Much obliged, good sir.

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/mother-in-law-sister-in-law-investing/

 

rb,

 

Hah! - Then you'll get the honor to open the new topic, in stead of Uccmal? [For my part, I can assure you, it will be a bit entertaining].

[Uccmal]

I would ask, What stock have you held for the last 15 years?

I'm not that old so by design I wouldn't have a lot of stocks that I've held for 15 years. But TD is coming up on 15 years for me.

 

Uh, none.  I would have kept FFH but by 2011 I realized they had handicapped their results for years. 

Have BMO, Sunlife, and RY in my kids RESP for 12 years but not by design.

 

Speaking of MILs, mine inherited what I estimate to be 18,000 dollars worth of Imperial Oil around 1980, from her dad.  He had worked there.  Now worth 240,000.  She has received the dividends as cash all along the way.  But again, not by design. 

[giofranchi]

I would also consider VSCIX, or another ETF of US small caps.

A requisite before investing in a company for me is a long and successful track record of reinvesting its earnings for growth.

Most probably after successfully reinvesting its earnings for 10-15 years, a company is no longer a small cap.

Therefore, it is very rare that I invest in a single small cap company.

But a basket of them is another story, and I surely would like some exposure to small caps: many will fail, but some will turn out to be 10x baggers. Overall I believe results will be satisfactory.

This being said, I clearly don't think it is the right time to invest in VSCIX, and I would wait for a serious correction.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio