Smazz Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Thoughts on the numbers coming after close? Over for me.
watsa_is_a_randian_hero Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 This quarter is tough to predict. We know they closed their hedges, but don't know at what price. We now know they bought a ton of equities, but again don't know at what price. Who knows what they did with their long bond portfolio or the rest of their CDS.
Redskin212 Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 OVER - way over. Smazz - maybe you could add a poll to this thread.
Smazz Posted February 19, 2009 Author Posted February 19, 2009 "OVER - way over. Smazz - maybe you could add a poll to this thread. " Darn, I didnt think of that - forgetting all the new features we have. I dont think I can change this to a poll - would prob have to start a new thread.
watsa_is_a_randian_hero Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 I'm gonna say under. Given all of the additional equity exposure, I bet that drags down earnings. I'm hoping I'm wrong and they bought at the very bottom and closed their treasuries. Either way, WFC is priced right now at almost 1/3 of what it was.
Uccmal Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 The $10 estimate seems reasonable for the end of Q4. The period until FEb. 15th will be a loss of around minus $15/share.
watsa_is_a_randian_hero Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 it all depends. if we still have a ton of long bonds, then theres a huge loss there too. If he closed a lot of that (I'm thinking he closed at least some, to free of cash, given hes buying other stuff), then the loss won't be as bad.
Guest misterstockwell Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Way way way over. Judging by what I could carve out of the ORH NAIC filings, FFH should have made an incredible amount of money in Q4.
NumquamPerdo Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 I'm guessing $30+. As of year end their gains on treasuries will dwarf their unhedged losses on equities. Come to think of it $30 is probably conservative.
Guest ericopoly Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Earnings or book value? Earnings should be massive due to realized gains on the hedges. Unrealized losses on the stocks being hedged don't count in earnings, but count for book value.
watsa_is_a_randian_hero Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 comprehensive earnings including OCI
NumquamPerdo Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Good point. I bet they sold some bonds and EPS will be $30+. Increase in BVPS might be twice that as of the end of December, but obviously down since then. However, you just never know what they'll do wrt reserving, commuting, etc. Purely pulling that out of my ass...
T-bone1 Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 forget earnings, how about Book Value per share? Over/Under $292 (just a number I made up)??? any takers?
Stone19 Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 I think the stock is trading under book right now.Cheers
Mungerville Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 I am an investor in ORH. I see this as a blow-out quarter for ORH on the investment side. Govt bonds surging into year-end, their stocks surging into year end after they simultaneously covered their equity index and other puts near the lows of Oct/Nov and bought stock. No-brainer blow-out quarter for ORH on the investment side.
oec2000 Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Earnings or book value? I prefer book value because earnings recognises investment results but not others simply based on how they are classified. Also, long term earnings power is basically driven by book which therefore makes it the better measure. FFH's quarterly earnings are too lumpy and volatile to be of much use for a long term investor. I would also ask whether we should look at tangible book or reported book. NB privatisation will result in sizeable goodwill which will reduce tangible book. Taking tangible book, the NB privatisation, and what has happened in the markets so far this year, I would guess that book has not risen very much since Q3 2008.
Smazz Posted February 19, 2009 Author Posted February 19, 2009 I am an investor in ORH. I see this as a blow-out quarter for ORH on the investment side. Govt bonds surging into year-end, their stocks surging into year end after they simultaneously covered their equity index and other puts near the lows of Oct/Nov and bought stock. No-brainer blow-out quarter for ORH on the investment side. I actually own more ORH than FFH at this point. What has or has not happened with the Bond is intriguiing to say the least. At some point youd think Prem would have had to pull the trigger - some of the prices were/are going insane.
valuecfa Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 It all depends on when/if they sold their treasury bond positions. If they sold their treasuries toward december as opposed to october, that would increase earnings dramatically. The treasury chart during that one single quarter is just amazing.
oldye Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Why not just look at the dividend, they say the dividend is based on this years performance which was about 160% as good as 07 where BV grew by 1.4 billion. My guess is we do better than 50$/share in BV growth.
zarley Posted February 19, 2009 Posted February 19, 2009 Link to Marketwire announcement: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/090219/0475920.html
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