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Frank Martin's 2008 letter


OracleofCarolina
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Guest ericopoly

The investor’s ride through time is not on a rocket ship, it’s on a roller coaster, albeit with a long-term 10% upward bias.

 

Is he suggesting the market returns 10% annually long term?

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ericopoly,

 

I stumbled onto this blog the other day:

 

http://www.behaviorgap.com/outperform-99-of-your-neighbors/

 

He posed an interesting question.  Common wisdom is that the market returns around 10% over the last 80 years.  He asks how many years in the 80 did the market return 9 to 11%?  The answer is exactly 2 years out of 80.  He makes the point that average returns are not "normal" returns.  And his main point is that investors do not get anywhere near the average return.  Too much chasing what's hot.

 

There is also an update of the Dalbar study in his presentation which is nice.

 

Mike

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Agreed.  Great letter.  I'm not done reading it, but it is insightful and entertaining -- a great combo.

 

This quote from Lincoln I've never heard before:

If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I’d spend six hours sharpening my ax.

 

An excellent thought on being deliberate and prepared.

 

Thanks for sharing.

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