Graham Osborn Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What more incendiary topic can one choose? I had a view last year that we would see support in the 40-50 range based on marginal production cost. I was clearly dead wrong :) Since then I've been looking for secular patterns to help explain what is going on and when we should expect the bear market to end. As many of you know I think the next few years will contain an analogue to 1974 (see the Dalio thread), and if that were true that would mean a bull market in commodities probably in the next 5 years. Basically right now I think: 1. A substantive bull market in Brent will not begin until we have had a substantive bear market in financial assets. 2. A good time to buy (as a secular bull) will be when the SSE shows good support. I look forward to a good thrashing.. P.S. To address the elephant in the room - obviously I'm looking at the 2007-2010 range as more of a blip in a secular bear market in commodities after the great 2002-2007 commodities bull market following the tech bubble bursting in 2000-2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!Register a new account
Already have an account? Sign in here.Sign In Now