Jump to content

Where will Brent go next?

Graham Osborn

Recommended Posts

What more incendiary topic can one choose?  I had a view last year that we would see support in the 40-50 range based on marginal production cost.  I was clearly dead wrong :) Since then I've been looking for secular patterns to help explain what is going on and when we should expect the bear market to end.  As many of you know I think the next few years will contain an analogue to 1974 (see the Dalio thread), and if that were true that would mean a bull market in commodities probably in the next 5 years.  Basically right now I think:


1. A substantive bull market in Brent will not begin until we have had a substantive bear market in financial assets.


2. A good time to buy (as a secular bull) will be when the SSE shows good support.


I look forward to a good thrashing..


P.S.  To address the elephant in the room - obviously I'm looking at the 2007-2010 range as more of a blip in a secular bear market in commodities after the great 2002-2007 commodities bull market following the tech bubble bursting in 2000-2001. 


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Create New...