Move over oil. Strong dollar now choking off U.S. inflation

[Phoenix01]

Looks like the CPE index is down to 0.3%. :o

The FFH CPI bet is looking better and better.  Should be an interesting AGM!

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/move-over-oil-strong-dollar-now-choking-off-us-inflation-2015-04-10

 

Only in March did the Fed kind of throw in the towel, slashing its estimate of PCE inflation in 2015 to a range of 0.6% to 0.8% from an original estimate between 1.6% to 1.9%. The rate of inflation that Fed officials consider healthy for the economy won’t close in on the bank’s 2% target until 2016, its latest forecast shows.

[Phoenix01]

Import prices excluding petroleum fell 0.4 percent in March. They had dropped 0.3 percent in February. Imported food prices fell 1.1 percent after being unchanged in February.

 

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-usa-economy-idINKBN0N116A20150410

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Looks like the CPE index is down to 0.3%. :o

The FFH CPI bet is looking better and better.  Should be an interesting AGM!

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/move-over-oil-strong-dollar-now-choking-off-us-inflation-2015-04-10

 

Only in March did the Fed kind of throw in the towel, slashing its estimate of PCE inflation in 2015 to a range of 0.6% to 0.8% from an original estimate between 1.6% to 1.9%. The rate of inflation that Fed officials consider healthy for the economy won’t close in on the bank’s 2% target until 2016, its latest forecast shows.

 

This has been my bigger concern. Oil is a single component of the index and as it drops in price, it's impact gets smaller and smaller. The dollar affects multiple items within the index and some are saying it's set for a multi-year rise.

 

The strength of the dollar and the cost of housing are the major pieces of that index. We likely need a prolonged strengthening of the dollar or a prolonged decline in housing/rental prices for Prem to be right. How those come about is up for anyone to guess.

 

 

 

[petec]

Looks like the CPE index is down to 0.3%. :o

The FFH CPI bet is looking better and better.  Should be an interesting AGM!

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/move-over-oil-strong-dollar-now-choking-off-us-inflation-2015-04-10

 

Only in March did the Fed kind of throw in the towel, slashing its estimate of PCE inflation in 2015 to a range of 0.6% to 0.8% from an original estimate between 1.6% to 1.9%. The rate of inflation that Fed officials consider healthy for the economy won’t close in on the bank’s 2% target until 2016, its latest forecast shows.

 

This has been my bigger concern. Oil is a single component of the index and as it drops in price, it's impact gets smaller and smaller. The dollar affects multiple items within the index and some are saying it's set for a multi-year rise.

 

The strength of the dollar and the cost of housing are the major pieces of that index. We likely need a prolonged strengthening of the dollar or a prolonged decline in housing/rental prices for Prem to be right. How those come about is up for anyone to guess.

 

Agreed.  But if they do come about, it'll be tough to make money in much else.  Treasuries maybe.

[Phoenix01]

You are correct.  FFH thinks that the US dollar will be safe, US long treasuries, and companies selling staples might also do OK.