BP's energy outlook

[racemize]

I found this interesting; I don't think it posted here elsewhere:

 

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/energy-outlook-2015/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf

[kfh227]

Scary item 1:

Population from 4 to 8 billion in 20 years.  Sorry, we are all F'ed.  Want a long term thesis?  Buy rentals in good neighborhoods in multiple cities.

 

And thanks!  Good find.

[Pelagic]

Thanks for sharing.

 

Coal's market share in China is scary item #2. Even as its losing market share of the next 20 years it still represents a considerable chunk of their power generation needs. Global warming arguments aside, you have to wonder how long urban Chinese can tolerate the affects of coal on their air quality.

 

I also think there are at least a couple fortunes to be made in renewable energy in the next two decades. Utility scale wind is already quite competitive with other forms of power generation in certain areas and costs will come down from where they are today. Cheap wind and solar will present an appealing alternative to non-OECD countries because the incremental costs are far lower than hydro, nuclear or even fossil fuels for power generation. It's a lot easier to budget in a couple wind turbines when you have the money available than it is to undertake a large energy project over the course of several years where political considerations, changing economic circumstances and possibly corruption could side track it.

[frank]

No way the general public is going to tolerate the air quality issues caused by coal-fired power plants but changes have been slow so far until this current administration came on.  Nuclear energy is probably the only substantial alternative for China to replace coal.