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End of Year Portfolio Analysis


DanielGMask
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Would you consider selling your house or farm just because it's the end of the year?

 

 

The only one of those I own is BRK, so I don't really have much otherwise to say about the others. I think owning Blackberry is a big gamble.

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Would you consider selling your house or farm just because it's the end of the year?

 

Nice attempt at channeling Buffett, but he's not saying he wants to sell because it's the end of the year, he's just looking for feedback on what he owns, and the end of the year is as good a time as any for that.

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So these are my holdings right now (in order of portfolio weighting): BRK, Cash, MAT, WFM, WMK, IBM, CBI, BBBY and IILG.

 

Please (for my benefit) feel free to state your opinion about what's to like and what's not to like about my holdings and the way they are weighted. Thanks!

 

Without knowing anymore its pretty hard to make a judgement.  You have 8 securities plus cash.  So in terms of the weighting if BRK is 50% that's much different than if its 20%.  That aside BRK seems to be pretty expensive to me. 

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Would you consider selling your house or farm just because it's the end of the year?

 

 

The only one of those I own is BRK, so I don't really have much otherwise to say about the others. I think owning Blackberry is a big gamble.

Bbby isn't bbry

 

Hah!  So full of fail!  ;D

 

 

My bad.  :-\

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So these are my holdings right now (in order of portfolio weighting): BRK, Cash, MAT, WFM, WMK, IBM, CBI, BBBY and IILG.

 

Please (for my benefit) feel free to state your opinion about what's to like and what's not to like about my holdings and the way they are weighted. Thanks!

 

Without knowing anymore its pretty hard to make a judgement.  You have 8 securities plus cash.  So in terms of the weighting if BRK is 50% that's much different than if its 20%.  That aside BRK seems to be pretty expensive to me.

 

Berkshire is a 40% position and my avg cost is about half of today's level. Cash is about 20%, Mattel about 17% and my avg cost is about the same as today. All of the rest range from 2-5% of total portfolio and my avg cost in all of those is about 5-25% below today's level.

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dump mattel. I would avoid products that will be the first expense that people put off in a crisis. It also does not really look that cheap, and toy business is not really that good a business to be in.

 

I actually like that one a lot! I posted a thread about it a few months ago but it didn't get traction. The company pays a nice dividend which I think is sustainable, it has doubled the book value per share during the last 12 years, reduced the number of shares in circulation repurchasing almost 100M shares during this period (27% of shares outstanding) and earned 4.5B before taxes during the last 5 years. Actually, during those 12 years the company earned more than 9B before taxes and paid 3.2B in dividends (Current Market Cap 12B+).

 

Goodwill (including intangibles not clearly itemized in the balance sheet) is a little over 1.7B but I think this should be way higher in order to clearly identify the moat of this company. Why? Because the company is earning a return of 50%+ on tangible assets (average net income [taxes are in the 18%-20% range and I've not adjusted the return to a higher tax rate] last 3 years), which is an amazing return and suggests a clear and present intangible moat.

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