lathinker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Pretty interesting political situation indeed but also nerve-wrecking if you are invested. Need a good stomach for this. My perception over the last few days was that Grexit likelihood was rising. Basically, Greece was granted an extension but obliged to vote an some structural reforms and work out other measures which did not happen. Instead, there was a lot of media war including lenghty and fruitless discussion on who did what five or two years ago. Felt like both camps preparing for the blame game. More recent impression is that Germany is defo ready to compromise with Greece: Merkel, Hollande and others are meeting Tsipras tonight and Tsipras accepted Merkel's invitation to Berlin on Monday. Forget all the Schaeuble/Varoufakis pre-show, Merkel and Tsipras are the ultimate senior decision makers. Merkel downplayed any hopes for results tonight and said there will be enough time to find an agreement, reflecting Greek complaints about time pressure. Just watched a political talk show on German TV with the chairman of Merkel's parliamentary group (Mr. Kauder) who is usually well-informed. He was more open to compromise than ever before, in terms of extension, another aid package and changes to the current program if reforms get moving again. Asked if a Grexit is coming, he said "I don't think so". Kauder was also understanding of the law passed by Greek parliament ("emergency help for the poorest") Also, it was mentioned in the show that geostrategic terms, the EU does not want to lose Greece which is a NATO country, located next to Turkey and very close to Russia. Not worth creating a new Putin ally for a few billions. In essence, I think Europe (at least Germany) is prepared to give in much more than they said so far. I am less clear about how the Greece government will act. They have a good chance to get something from Europe if they return to structural reforms. What could that be? Potentially an investment program, potentially a debt restructuring. Question is if they are clear where they want to go. Slightly more optimistic than 24h ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It has been said before in media but another option would be selling off one of the bigger islands like Kos, Rhodos etc. Sell it to the Saudis to build their paradise on earth or to Germany. Hell, sell it to the EU as an asset for future military base development. There is no shortage of assets to pay off those debts, that's for sure. I know this is probably nonnegotiable for the public and Syriza (not to mention the geopolitical objections and risks) but wouldn't selling just a few percent of their land solve the problem altogether? It has been done in the past. But as long as they believe that there is a chance that they wouldn't be worse of if they defaulted, they won't go for it anyhow. I'm sure there are tons of other reasons not to do it with which others can help me. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lathinker Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It has been said before in media but another option would be selling off one of the bigger islands like Kos, Rhodos etc. Sell it to the Saudis to build their paradise on earth or to Germany. Hell, sell it to the EU as an asset for future military base development. There is no shortage of assets to pay off those debts, that's for sure. I know this is probably nonnegotiable for the public and Syriza (not to mention the geopolitical objections and risks) but wouldn't selling just a few percent of their land solve the problem altogether? It has been done in the past. But as long as they believe that there is a chance that they wouldn't be worse of if they defaulted, they won't go for it anyhow. I'm sure there are tons of other reasons not to do it with which others can help me. :) This would work from a purely financial perspective. But as the discussion is largely about dignity, pride and self-determination, it is clearly a no-go. Also, not sure if anybody in Europe wants to be too close what Saudis consider their paradise on earth ;) There should be better ways to resolve this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Good interview with George Soros about Ukraine, Greece and currencies. :) http://uk.businessinsider.com/soros-greece-is-now-a-lose-lose-game-with-a-50-change-of-leaving-the-euro-2015-3?r=US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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