HJ Posted March 5, 2014 Posted March 5, 2014 Oh, make no mistake, I am not bearish on the Macau casinos, and am not bearish on China long term either. For a country of a billion and half people to experience in 30 years, what the West experienced in 200 years, all sorts of extreme phenomenon happen. What has been going on is extraordinary, but for most entities grounded in Western framework, quite unpredictable. For a North American investor, though, if you so chose, you don't really need to be involved in the game, which is a tough one to figure out. There's a reason most of my friends in China chose not to preserve their wealth in the form of equities, but in real estate. Because the equity game on the ground there is too hard for them too.
DTEJD1997 Posted March 5, 2014 Posted March 5, 2014 On 3/5/2014 at 1:27 AM, HJ said: Oh, make no mistake, I am not bearish on the Macau casinos, and am not bearish on China long term either. For a country of a billion and half people to experience in 30 years, what the West experienced in 200 years, all sorts of extreme phenomenon happen. What has been going on is extraordinary, but for most entities grounded in Western framework, quite unpredictable. For a North American investor, though, if you so chose, you don't really need to be involved in the game, which is a tough one to figure out. There's a reason most of my friends in China chose not to preserve their wealth in the form of equities, but in real estate. Because the equity game on the ground there is too hard for them too. As an American investor, a dozen "Chinese" investments over the course of 20 years may be enough to provide diversification & "juice" my portfolio. If something is too difficult, take a pass. If I don't like the "cut of their jib", I'll take a pass...I can look at 100 Chinese prospects and choose one. An American investor has the advantage of being able to spread capital easily through many different countries. For example, I have companies that are heavily concentrated in the USA, Canada, UK, Norway, China, Macau, Congo, Chile, Eritrea, Zimbabwe, Mexico, Greece, South Africa. I have also diversified to real estate, and physical possession of precious metals. So being based in N. America is certainly an advantage!
petec Posted March 5, 2014 Posted March 5, 2014 On 2/26/2014 at 8:25 PM, Dazel said: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140224000086&cid=1203 I don't know the answer...anyone have it? If money printing is the answer China could certainly get on the printing press if they wanted.... Could?! China is 12% of world GDP and accounted for 40-50% of world money creation in the last 3 years. They have been on the printing press big time. Why else do you think Central Bank reserves are so high? (CBank reserves/global GDP matched only by 1920s US and 1980s Japan...)
Guest Dazel Posted March 5, 2014 Posted March 5, 2014 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/01/21/chinas-debt-how-serious-is-it/ yep could do more....you will see that china is well below the debt of the US and Germany.... two things missing. 1. U.S social security short fall-debt $20 trillion debt....Fannie and Freddie have more debt than the local chinese governments. 2. The U.S is not growing even with trillions per year in stimulus the China growth rate along with their fiscal situation comparable to the rest of the world would allow them to continue to print enormous amounts of money...and they will...thats why they are buying up the worlds gold reserves with their $4 trillion in currency reserves. dazel
Palantir Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 I find this pretty concerning that China is devaluing the Yuan. Most expect that this is driven by the slowing economy, but my concern is that the US is tapering right now, which implies rising US rates and capital outflows from emerging markets, which should devalue the yuan anyways, but China doubling down on it, when really they should over time be raising the currency is very worrisome.
ZenaidaMacroura Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 5:27 PM, Palantir said: I find this pretty concerning that China is devaluing the Yuan. Most expect that this is driven by the slowing economy, but my concern is that the US is tapering right now, which implies rising US rates and capital outflows from emerging markets, which should devalue the yuan anyways, but China doubling down on it, when really they should over time be raising the currency is very worrisome. In the short term this should lead to a pickup in economies that import goods from China? I don't see how this smooth things out for the chinese longer term, but it seems good for the U.S. economy in the interim...
Palantir Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 ^Why do you feel so, given that the US is trying to export more.
rukawa Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 Quote Cash and minimal exposure to commodities and commodity producing countries. I agree but that might be a little difficult given that you live in Canada like me :P
wisdom Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 9:19 PM, rukawa said: Quote Cash and minimal exposure to commodities and commodity producing countries. I agree but that might be a little difficult given that you live in Canada like me :P LOL - Even though my earnings are in Canada most of my investments are in US and in USD. Tried to buy them while the US had been on sale over the last several years. Will buy Canada when Canada is on sale.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 There are also concerns that many Chinese companies are turning to a risky type of funding which involves importing copper and using it as collateral for bank loans. If the price of copper falls, borrowers will be forced to dump the metal to help cover losses. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579430171728494800?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird&mg=reno64-wsj
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 I think it's going to blow. I bought a lot of puts today.
Guest Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 11:14 PM, ERICOPOLY said: I think it's going to blow. I bought a lot of puts today. Glad you're finally coming to the wet blanket party. ;) By the way, didn't you do something similar about this time last year?
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 11:19 PM, stahleyp said: Quote I think it's going to blow. I bought a lot of puts today. Glad you're finally coming to the wet blanket party. ;) By the way, didn't you do something similar about this time last year? Of and on I get these pangs of conscience. This is just getting too much like Deja Vu all over again.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 Let me try my hand... When Yellowstone blows, it won't be a North American event! Maybe I can write letters for hedge funds after all.
Guest Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 11:28 PM, ERICOPOLY said: Let me try my hand... When Yellowstone blows, it won't be a North American event! Maybe I can write letters for hedge funds after all. You should, Eric. After all, why stop at like $15 million? ;)
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 Nah! Hey, I thought Gio recently admitted that perhaps the hedges were a mistake. That was like the ultimate market top signal.
wisdom Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 Gio has loaded up on FFH. He will do well if you are right.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 BTW, I was kidding about Gio and the market top signal thing. I know he is being patient.
matjone Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 Thanks for those ideas DTEJD. For some reason I didn't buy emperor when you mentioned it. I can't even remember why now. Also, regarding the junket thing, if I remember right emperor wasn't relying as much on the junkets as some of the others. I own DSWL. I don't think it's a fraud. The thing I am concerned with is that their business isn't that good. Instead of losing all your money in a flash the MOS could be eaten up with operating losses. But I like net nets with a lot of excess cash/investments.
Guest Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 11:38 PM, ERICOPOLY said: Nah! Hey, I thought Gio recently admitted that perhaps the hedges were a mistake. That was like the ultimate market top signal. ;D ;D ;D That would be epic if that actually happened. Just messing with ya, Gio! Don't forget Hendry (who also thinks bitcoins are a good idea and was bearish for most of the entire time) also turned bullish pretty recently. On another note, on my facebook page, a guy was bragging about his "50% gains in two months" and how he made 100% on facebook calls. I inquired about his longer term record...and was ignored.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 11:58 PM, stahleyp said: Quote Nah! Hey, I thought Gio recently admitted that perhaps the hedges were a mistake. That was like the ultimate market top signal. ;D ;D ;D That would be epic if that actually happened. Just messing with ya, Gio! Don't forget Hendry (who also thinks bitcoins are a good idea and was bearish for most of the entire time) also turned bullish pretty recently. On another note, on my facebook page, a guy was bragging about his "50% gains in two months" and how he made 100% on facebook calls. I inquired about his longer term record...and was ignored. I find that to be a good technique for risk control. Brag about your unbelievable returns if you've got them... then you'll be so terrified of having egg on your face that it forces to you gain some prudence and walk away while you are still ahead. So that guy is doing the right thing to talk about 50% in two months -- it will be too humiliating to get wiped out after that, so he increases his chances of survival, ironically.
Guest Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Or, if it does turn south, he might not just mention them (or lie). I don't think he'd lie about it but I could see him declining to discuss. Not everyone is as honest and open as you are, Eric. Oh, so I just checked and he goes on to say that he's not anticipating a "major correction like 2008". Close one!
ZenaidaMacroura Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 On 3/10/2014 at 5:34 PM, Palantir said: ^Why do you feel so, given that the US is trying to export more. hmm I feel that the presence of cheap chinese goods helps hold down the cost and improve the (perception of?) standard of living in the U.S. The U.S. is always trying to export more, but as the domestic economy struggles to improve I think this may spur economic activity. Rising tide lifting all the boats and such.
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