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Posted

does anyone know when the letter & results will be published?

 

I think Friday after market close is the base expectation.  Friday of the last week of the first quarter is the standard, IIRC.

Posted

does anyone know when the letter & results will be published?

 

I think Friday after market close is the base expectation.  Friday of the last week of the first quarter is the standard, IIRC.

 

Thanks zarley, much appreciated.

Posted

Then the bubble burst...

 

Again, a bubble had popped...

 

How is this not macro?

 

Technically it is, although I suspect he couldn't have predicted exactly when it would happen. And that's what he is against: Making investment decisions based on macro-economic predictions in the short-term. In the cases above, he simply went looking in areas where the bubble had indeed popped i.e. prices had declined considerably so as to offer value.

 

Best,

Ragu

 

Posted

Buffett takes his own advice so seriously that he exited the market entirely in 1969 and 1970. Market valuation and analysis is bad :)

isn't the advise for the know nothing person ? someone like buffett may not need any advise :)

Posted

Buffett takes his own advice so seriously that he exited the market entirely in 1969 and 1970. Market valuation and analysis is bad :)

isn't the advise for the know nothing person ? someone like buffett may not need any advise :)

 

Arguably, Buffett's cautionary is more suited for the experienced investor, who may be lost in models and big picture narratives that impress at dinner parties and client meetings. But the new investor might literally try to ignore macro issues, without understanding that every company specific expectation exists in permissive macroeconomic conditions.

Posted

Then the bubble burst...

 

Again, a bubble had popped...

 

How is this not macro?

 

He is looking at FCF yield after a large decline in price.  How's that macro?

Posted

He only had the cash to take advantage of the opportunity because he considers investment opportunities across time.

 

He'd otherwise have been fully invested at the time (in the most attractive opportunities of the time).

 

It's not market timing in that he made no prediction as to when the bubble might burst (or even that it was a bubble), but it's macro given he believed more attractive opportunities would later show.

 

But maybe I quibble.

 

 

Posted

Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

Posted

Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

 

Carol gets to pre-release portions of his letters from time to time.  I think they did this last year at least?

Guest wellmont
Posted

Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

 

he has a very good relationship with Fortune. Carol Loomis or somebody at Fortune probably suggested it to Warren, who then agreed it would be a good educational piece.

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