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Excerpt from 2014 annual letter


MarioP

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Pretty sure it's Saturday actually. March 1. You get 60 days to file so that would put it on that Saturday.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-shareholder-letter-date-march-1-2014-2

 

Interesting.  I was under the impression that the saturday release practice ended in 2012. 

 

In any event, I apologize for the bad information.  Looks like I'll read it with my coffee and not a glass of wine. ;)

 

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Then the bubble burst...

 

Again, a bubble had popped...

 

How is this not macro?

 

Technically it is, although I suspect he couldn't have predicted exactly when it would happen. And that's what he is against: Making investment decisions based on macro-economic predictions in the short-term. In the cases above, he simply went looking in areas where the bubble had indeed popped i.e. prices had declined considerably so as to offer value.

 

Best,

Ragu

 

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Buffett takes his own advice so seriously that he exited the market entirely in 1969 and 1970. Market valuation and analysis is bad :)

isn't the advise for the know nothing person ? someone like buffett may not need any advise :)

 

Arguably, Buffett's cautionary is more suited for the experienced investor, who may be lost in models and big picture narratives that impress at dinner parties and client meetings. But the new investor might literally try to ignore macro issues, without understanding that every company specific expectation exists in permissive macroeconomic conditions.

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He only had the cash to take advantage of the opportunity because he considers investment opportunities across time.

 

He'd otherwise have been fully invested at the time (in the most attractive opportunities of the time).

 

It's not market timing in that he made no prediction as to when the bubble might burst (or even that it was a bubble), but it's macro given he believed more attractive opportunities would later show.

 

But maybe I quibble.

 

 

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Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

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Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

 

Carol gets to pre-release portions of his letters from time to time.  I think they did this last year at least?

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Guest wellmont

Is anyone else curious as to why Buffett has released this, and released it early?

 

Buffett has never before released part of his letter early, so what does he gain, given he's so resistant to change?

 

And as for writing a handy guide reminding everyone to focus on cash, is he trying to tell us something?  Is this some kind of message that the market is bubbly and overvalued, in his opinion?  Is there another theory?  Or am I reading too much into things?

 

he has a very good relationship with Fortune. Carol Loomis or somebody at Fortune probably suggested it to Warren, who then agreed it would be a good educational piece.

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