Commerical Real Estate Loans Going Bad At Frightening Rate

[Parsad]

The next shoe to drop in 2010, along with Alt-A and Opt-A refinancings.  Surprisingly, Blodget keeps it simple and straight forward.  Thanks for the article Alan.  Cheers!

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-commercial-real-estate-loans-going-bad-at-frightening-rate-2009-8

[Cardboard]

I read somewhere that the hedge fund king (IMO) John Paulson is short many regional banks for that reason. On the other hand, what is interesting is that he is massively long large U.S. banks.

 

He runs a very large hedge fund empire ($17 billion in assets), but the guy seems down to Earth, a value type, does not trade constantly and likes to put money in his best ideas. So he may be of some interest to the group here.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035674/000103567409000008/0001035674-09-000008.txt

 

His large portfolio is essentially in three categories: merger arbitrage, U.S. large cap financials and gold/gold stocks. He has 32% in gold/gold stocks with just over half of it in the SPDR Gold Trust. To me it is just too large a position to ignore. He is not some nutso gold bug. This man was like Prem or one of the very few to predict the financial crisis and to get into CDS and shorts on financials beforehand.

 

Of course, he has a bunch of shorts and hedges not disclosed.

 

Cardboard

[JAllen]

I always find his permanently (somewhat) large Boston Scientific position interesting.

[yudeng2004]

The next shoe to drop in 2010, along with Alt-A and Opt-A refinancings.  Surprisingly, Blodget keeps it simple and straight forward.  Thanks for the article Alan.  Cheers!

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-commercial-real-estate-loans-going-bad-at-frightening-rate-2009-8

 

I always end up shorting the right things 20% before they reach their highs :(

 

A few weeks ago I sold my FFH calls ~300 and then got some puts on commercial REITS. I guess I have to increase my position as they move up...

[benhacker]

Which REITs are you looking at YuDeng?  Just curious.

 

Thanks,

 

Ben