Mephistopheles
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Posts posted by Mephistopheles
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@Spekulatius What do you make of Autonation's operating margins over the last three years vs. the previous eight? 7% or so from '21 to '23 vs. 3-4% range in the years prior. As the used car market deflates, I'm thinking that 7 P/E multiple is not reliable.
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For those who subscribe, did you choose Pro or Plus? Pro is double the price; is it worth it? I did miss the 50% off lifetime last year. But given the reviews I'd like to join, just not sure which tier to choose.
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Anyone know where to find audio recordings of conference calls, for free? Seeking alpha has it and it used to be able to hack to avoid paying for a sub, but looks like they've fixed that loophole.
Companies should just keep audio recordings up on the website for at least 1-2 years.
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17 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Yea I’ll confess boredom and @Mephistophelesmaking sensible arguments got me into the SAVE situation as well.
Thanks for the shout out!
The wide spread is peculiar but we shouldn't assume the market knows all. There have been a number of large spread transactions recently that in hindsight seem obvious. Tenneco dipped to $15 in the summer of '22 with the deal set to close at $20 in the fall. Twitter was in the $30s a few months before closing at $54.
SAVE as a standalone assuming pre-COVID margins is a steal. Will business travel return to pre-COVID? It appears to be heading that way. If that happens, things should stabilize. The oligopolistic factors that got Buffett interested a few years ago are still there Of course near term (recession, oil, engine issues) risks remain, but that's always the case.
The high leverage is no good so I loaded up on puts, but then was able to make all my money back by selling near term calls. The puts are expensive but am banking on us getting an answer sooner rather than later. From everything I have seen, this judge is a fast decision maker.
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Profits. Too many companies are earning money these days
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To the experts on this forum, what are your thoughts on a potential black swan for oil prices if Iranian and Venezuelen production massively ramps up? Both countries are underproducing vs. their potential but both are ramping up production.
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On 5/29/2023 at 6:58 PM, sholland said:
Not giving us much to go on, but perhaps you are talking about Goehring and Rosencwajg
On 5/29/2023 at 8:04 PM, jfan said:Are you referring to jpm annual energy report? They cover a breadth of topics and is around that length.
It’s neither of these but I will take a look, thanks for sharing!
And I found the one I was referring to- enjoy! It’s goodhttps://manhattan.institute/article/the-energy-transition-delusion
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I’m looking for a paper that was circulated last year, about 20-30 pages long. It gave a very detailed analysis of why o&g, coal demand isn’t going away and spoke about the various green energy bottlenecks regarding lithium, copper, permitting etc.
it was very well written and informative , had charts and graphs too.
Anyone have it or know which one I’m talking about??
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@RedLion Welcome to IBKR. Their platform sucks and I've learned to live with it
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How about long VIX calls? VIX is at 16.5 which is pretty low
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21 minutes ago, Malmqky said:
FHN. I expect TD to go through with the deal, albeit at a lower price.
Well they’re waiting on regulatory approval (which given the climate would be stupid not to approve). But regulators are stupid as we’ve seen.
It’s not expected they’ll approve the deal by the time TD is allowed to walk away, which is in the next few weeks. FHN and TD are negotiating terms to extend the deadline but like you said, it may be at a lower price.
Personally I feel there are better risk/rewards in the industry.
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Anyone know what the margin requirement for OTC securities is at IBKR? I think OTC stocks are not marginable but just making sure. If the stock is listed in a foreign exchange it may be better off buying it on that exchange instead of OTC in that case, right?
Also, I heard small caps are not marginable (less than $500m market cap). Is this the case?
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@wabuffo - thanks again for your great explanation of how these things work.
To your comment:
QE/QT change the composition of private sector holdings from Treasury securities to reserves/deposits and vice versa.
When Treasury issues bonds, the money goes from deposits to the TGA. But then if the Treasury spends the money, it gets added back as a deposit, right?
My question is - Treasury issuing new bonds takes away from the banking sector but that money returns right back when the Treasury spends, so what really changes?
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https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/politics/live-news/trump-new-york-court-arraignment-04-04-23/index.html
Curious what sort of affect this would have with RE and REITs. One of the greatest if not the greatest real estate developer in history.
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8 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:
PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time.
Lmao
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1 hour ago, benchmark said:
I think WFC needs spend money on lobbying. They need the cap removed -- "look ma, there are all these deposits that we need to take for the stability of the banking system, can you please remove the cap so that we can help?"
Or - help me to lend all this money due to COVID…
it’s insane to me the cap isn’t lifted yet. They’ve suffered enough!
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I picked up some TFC, USB, PACW, FHN, BAC. And finally decided to pick up some KRE to make it easier.
I think the FDIC will come up with a greater insurance mechanism. Up the limit to $1 million maybe and then infinite coverage if you go above with an extra fee? Just making up things.
Point is the govt isn’t going to let them die.
Theres also a liquidity crunch which should help them solve the inflation problem somewhat I think. Every bank in the country is scrambling for cash I bet.
The event itself was very deflationary which is good if you don’t want rate hikes which is good for the HTM/AFS portfolios. Circular I know….
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It seems to me buying a basket of these regionals is a good bet, and the bet is that the government won't allow a run on them. If another one fails it's more likely the Feds explicitly guarantee all deposits and/or cut rates.
Why not just buy a basket and assume that the authorities will act rationally as they already have hinted?
This was Dave Tepper's thought process in 09 when he loaded up on the (big) banks.
Simple and straightforward thesis imo.
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On 10/5/2022 at 10:39 PM, Mephistopheles said:
yea they are pariahs. The Saudis are pariahs too. Point is that both are very powerful oil rich nations. If we want cheap oil , it would be better to be friends with both, as to at least make it a bit more competitive amongst them. Even Iran and Saudi Arabia both get the power of oil, thus both play on the same team being OPEC even though they are enemies. The Russians, Chinese, Indians are friends with both. We should do the same. -
Congrats Greg!
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Slightly off topic, but does anyone have a recommendation for a good adjustable standing desk with a back wall?
Costco has a bunch of adjustable standing desks as well does Overstock, however I want one that has a back to it so it can hide all the wires from site. Sadly can't find any as such!
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Happy belated 99th, Charlie.
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AMR, BTU
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My issue with Cathie Wood is that she is shameless about marketing (50% returns, bitcoin at 50k, etc). And also has a pretentious way about her. As if she is above others on Wall Street because she focuses on innovation /esg.
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2024
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
Does anyone know if Whitney Tilson will have the meet up on Friday night?