goldfinger

Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. I thought all the "pounding" at HP left along with Mark Hurd and Jodie Fisher. ;) :D

Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D HPQ is now getting pounded during the day. What do you think of their strategy Myth?

Ericopoly: any thoughts about HPQ's quarter and projects?

That's basically where it is priced at the moment.

Is HPQ in runoff too? ;D

This crossed my mind last night. This is entirely possible. That's why I make fun of french politicians (I know the place)!

Sanjeev, 1. Nobody is saying that you are intrinsically wrong here! Fake in my mind just meant not long term significant and reliable. 2. I was just commenting on the fact that Tillerson is talking is own book. Tillerson denied the existence of peak oil bluntly when the IEA was doing the same. He cannot do it anymore now that even the IEA is admitting to its existence. 3. Being an engineer myself and having followed the analysis of a few geologists with above 30 years experience in the oil business for years, I must say that replacing the giant oil fields is going to be quite a challenge. We may get into 7+% depletion rates on the best oil fields in the average globally not too far from now (this compounds negatively). Given the properties of oil and how much energy that represents, it is quite a challenge! 4. I hope the word will adapt and yes China will go through tough readjustments (they will have issues with water and other resources too). But it is possible that road is much more volatile and rocky than we could expect.

He wants calm: no windfall tax, no congress grilling him and his colleges about high oil prices, no panic beliefs in peak oil. I am not saying that speculation is not playing any role (and that oil should not be lower at this precis point in time), but I also believe that peak (cheap) oil is very real and calling an equilibrium price is kind of fake. Even Buffett said in 2007 or so: "I do not know where the equilibrium price is." Exxon still has lots of low cost oil to exploit even though those big companies are finding it very hard to replace reserves.

In this case the same can be said about Tillerson!

I grew up in France and always had a very bad feeling about Strauss Kahn. So my reaction was not humor but just a confirmation of what I already thought! I left France a long time ago and never looked back. Sometimes you need to take some distance with things and appreciate them at different levels, not only at the most direct and obvious one.

The biggest oil companies have problems finding new resources at their scale. Some believe they are in slow motion liquidation. Exxon has plenty of older projects where the cost of production is low: it wants to be able to muddle along like this for as long as possible and keep low profile. Reality is that most of the new production (unconventional reserves) costs above 70$ to bring to production now and the slack is in the average at historical lows. Funny how a bit of weakness in the global economy immediately brings the same kinds of debates we were seeing in 2005-2006.

Tillerson always denied any possibility of peak oil before 2007, always. Since then even the IEA changed its forecasts and thesis and worldwide oil export never crossed the level reached in 2005. He is right there is a premium and 75/80 or so looks more like the equilibrium price for now. What I notice however is that he has changed his speech a bit and increased his realistic price range (it used to be much lower when he was denying peak oil, like 30s).

VERY FUNNY! VERY NORMAL too! He is a real french politician. He will be president! ;D

Sales and marketing and support will be integrated inside Microsoft and then there will only be engineering! Then your numbers will be right!

Most articles are negative but I have seen a few that are not actually. Monetization of some of the user base can make it accretive pretty quickly (that's what Ballmer is talking about but since everyone says he doesn't know what he is doing that's probably true...). To me the deal with Nokia + adding Skype can create critical mass in the phone business in a much cheaper way than either acquiring RIMM or doing it on their own (they don't have time and it is not constructive at their level). Skype goes beyond that however and will be present in many different offerings and products. Can I suggest without being bashed that they may actually kick ass with that stuff at some point?

In your article there is this: "What makes Google not ready? They’re taking a consumer service and trying to provide that to businesses, and architecturally there are a lot differences. As a consumer you probably don’t ask where your data is going to be stored." That's exactly the kind of things I was referring to a few posts ago with Apple targeting the end user/consumer business.

Look I have been in this business for almost 2 decades now and I have almost every day heard complaints about MSFT. Actually no, every day is more correct! I produced a lot of them myself because it can be a nightmare to work with some of their technologies at times. Very different attitude with GOOG. Ballmer is probably the most insulted man in history! Especially since last week.

Totally! All I am saying is the cost of deploying integrated solutions with windows software/server and systems is very low in most cases now. We are not talking about the same layers.

You know software technology patterns recurrently come back: we are getting back to a renewed client/server paradigm and also multi-device paradigm. Last time it didn't destroy SAP and other ERP systems. But I do understand your concern and some of it is justified.

That's mean and very very funny! :D

HPQ and DELL at this price I agree. GOOG: it is cheap and has a lot going for it, but I think most under-estimate the competitive pressures they may be facing in the next decade... They have been spending tons and tons of money in non-directly accretive projects but since they are not MSFT but GOOG nobody asks questions...

- MSFT being in run-off is your view of the business. How long has IBM been in run-off now? What about HP? The negative view of Microsoft is so engrained in people's minds and has been for 2 decades now. I do not deny changes, competitive pressures and threats but Microsoft has bright spots and is much better managed than most believe. Skype acquisition is not to be understood linearly: it will be integrated and used across many layers of technologies and products (cloud, smart phones, services, APIs/.NET, office, OS, Facebook, search etc...). Microsoft hasn't made acquisitions like this all the time. I would be patient on this one. I would also be patient on the online division: this one may surprise over the next decade. Bing is really decent for example. I have been using Google for a long time (it is my default page on all my new machines and browsers) but wouldn't mind switching to Bing in an instant if brought there intelligently. As for web OS and open source PCs etc...: Let's put it that way: hopefully for our own sake it will not work! - For some reason I am much more worried about Cisco: their main business is now commoditized. They are surrounded everywhere on their own battlefields. - At forward P/Es of 7, 8 or 9 for some of those companies, it may be easier than you say to make money.

That's exactly one of the directions and it is already happening especially in new smaller companies at the moment but will propagate to all types of businesses. Businesses want more for less cost: - Free/open source doesn't obligatorily bring that because you still need a comprehensive set of applications integrated into solutions that companies can use to produce efficiently. So developers/consultants still need to be used to get there when using free/open source. - IT is a big spender and source of headaches and incremental needs in resources. - As for devices, companies will buy the machines that will give them maximum options and power for the smallest price and for now I am not sure that they can get out of the PC thing. Apple has been wisely targeting the end user market.

Finally someone speaks the truth (Coke and other unhealthy food businesses)!

A lot of what you are saying makes sense!