goldfinger

Targets were revised upwards at the beginning of the year...

The brits have always gone around acting like their shit don't smell. My guess is they're gonna live to regret this one. Agreed. They think they are smarter than the continental europeans...

When is it that the Brits have ever been European? What a made up issue that is! :o

Why is there no choice for "no one"? :o

LOL. :) Thanks for vote of confidence Picasso. 8) ::) ??? :o ;D Thanks Sanjeev for great organization, great dinner, great speakers and overall fun. Best wishes with your company and with your ongoing charitable collection. Pabrai and now Jurgis... :o

Corelab's industry outlook: http://www.corelab.com/ Industry Outlook and First Quarter 2016 Revenue and EPS Guidance The balancing of worldwide crude oil markets continues, as evidenced by the continued sharp decline in U.S. onshore production during the second half of 2015. Further, the International Energy Agency estimated that worldwide demand increased in 2015 by 1,700,000 bopd and will increase a further 1,200,000 bopd in 2016 in response to low commodity prices. Core believes tighter crude markets will prevail in the second half of 2016, which, in turn, will lead to higher energy prices and increased demand for Core's unique technology-related services and products. U.S. land-based crude oil production peaked in March 2015, and Core believes that production has decreased from that peak by 600,000 bopd, as compared to the Company's prior estimate of 500,000 bopd. Adding support to this view, Bakken production has clearly peaked, while Eagle Ford production began to decline early in 2015. Core Lab’s current estimated net decline curve rate for total U.S. production is 7.8%, owing to the concentration of U.S. production coming from high-decline-rate unconventional reservoirs, more than twice Core's new estimated net worldwide crude oil production decline curve rate of 3.1%. The current U.S. net production decline curve rate would even be greater if not for unsustainable production gains from the GOM late in 2015. In addition to second half 2015 production declines in North America, including Mexico, 2015 international production declines occurred in Asia-Pacific, South America, and Africa. In 2016, at current activity levels in North America, year-over-year production declines of over 900,000 bopd are expected in Canada and the U.S., while international production levels are expected to continue to decline modestly. The Company believes that recent downward production revisions in Mexico and offshore eastern South America confirm these views, and that should precipitate higher commodity prices and the beginning of a recovery in Core's business in the second half of 2016.

You know much more about this stuff than I do, but can we not expect inventories to keep climbing? I read somewhere that traditionally in February refineries shutdown for repairs, which causes inventories to rise. Seems like inventories will keep rising until at least March. The us has imported something like 590k barrels since last week (eia). Production from na is actually falling.

Bellatrix is 70% Natural Gas... Penn West even with 200/300M value for most non core assets and 50K/flowing barrel for core production still exceeds 1CAD/share (net of debt). At 1.45CAD/$ exchange rate they can still sell oil at 40/45CAD - not enough to maintain production but enough to survive for now... Do you envision oil staying below 40$ for all of 2016?

Iranian oil production has been on the decline for a long time and mismanaged. It will take them a while to ramp up and at these prices, how are they attracting investments? This market is now well into irrational territory, below almost any marginal cost of production of new barrels anywhere in the world. It may want to see confirmation of some additional supply disruption - it may be surprised by the speed at which it will happen now...

It was known before. Besides Iran probably always sold its oil to someone... Aren't we close to the point of maximum pessimism?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-productivity-idUSKCN0UP29X20160111?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-Commodities&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=1391616 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/11/half-of-us-shale-drillers-may-go-bankrupt-oppenheimers-gheit.html 116K barrels/day/month of lost production is not a small amount. We probably lost more than that in Dec alone.

For existing barrels yes... that's the cost curve to fight depletion: http://screencast.com/t/XYiIJYjkXcU5

From one of the countries that surprised on the upside in the last 2 years: http://sputniknews.com/business/20160111/1032954003/iraq-oil-prices.html#ixzz3wxofDxCq

What do you think of Baytex? They have no maturity coming until 2020 I believe and have significant assets to divest in case. Also their valuation has finally crashed to levels comparable to other levered, depressed and comparable oil names.

With commodities it goes like this: First you speculate on the future price of the commodity. Then based on that speculation, you state how much margin of safety there is in the stock. Therefore, tons of varying views among value investors. And the views are based on speculations. I think this is why Buffett wants to avoid "price taker" businesses. Commodities seem cyclical though. What if you assume low prices (close to marginal cost of production)?