ScottHall

Love this concept. Lot of my interaction on this forum was inspired by Andy Kaufman's run in Memphis.

Go get 'em tiger.

WAAAAYFAIR YOU'VE GOT JUST WHAT I NEED Um but seriously IDK. Cool real estate ops out there but haven't seen a lot of 100x yet... Been very lazy this sell off... only put a little dry powder to work. May miss out. We'll see. Oh well!

<3

I still do value investments but my style has shifted towards growth over the past five years. Giving value investors grief fun, but the style can and does work in some circumstances. It's just that most of its practitioners are not skilled at the art, which is unsurprising given the wide array of Xeroxes of Xeroxes that are easily read about the subject. It encourages amateurs who don't know what they're doing, which is valuable in that it gets more people into investing, but unfortunate because a lot of people let those early learnings stunt their growth. Nevertheless, value can be a successful style and my view is that its core concepts make sense as a base to add upon, rather than being the whole strategy by itself. Its principles make sense, but it's important to build on top of them and figure out where the heuristics of old are no longer so useful. The big problem with value investing is that many of its practitioners are essentially cultists who refuse to even try to adapt their style. It makes them intellectually lazy and, surprise surprise, they end up underperforming because of it. I've found a lot of value in creating my own style of investing. It's an endeavor worth pursuing, because it's harder to have unique insights if you copy & paste from the same sources as everyone else. Congratulations on your success with growth investing, it's an admirable achievement to improve your style by trying new concepts.

If reason doesn't work, try emotion.

I don't get the bad reaction to alwaysdrawing. I agree with a lot of the points brought up, and think people are being too harsh. I don't see anything offensive about that contra view of Berkshire, part of which is similar to what I've expressed in the past. Berkshire is a great company but I'm not sure it's a great investment anymore, either, and sold my shares after the tax reform run-up. I might buy them back at some point because a lot of its businesses are "old reliable" and there is a place for that in a portfolio, but for me, doubtful to be a "core holding" on account of I like stuff that's a bit higher octane than Berkshire but with much better growth profiles. I see Berkshire as an occasional "role player" for my "team" of stocks, but not something I would build my franchise around. I could see it playing a bigger role for others, though, depending on their risk tolerance and what they're trying to do. One thing that I don't think a lot of investors appreciate is what sort of role a stock will play in their portfolios. Are its traits complementary to the stocks you already have or does adding it weaken the portfolio even if the stock itself is seemingly underpriced. It's something I have been thinking about more lately. I own Markel for similar reasons, it adds value for me because it's not another Google or Amazon or Facebook.

Put it all on red SPY same month calls. YOLO! 8) Seriously, IRL I'd probably do nothing. Even with special situations, there is no guarantee they'd work out in a month and they likely won't be big enough to put in $1B. The best trade would be one where you are likely make a little, but have a tail risk of losing a lot. I think this can be structured by selling out of the money calls and puts simultaneously (forgot how this is called). The thinking is that even make a little percentagewise with a high likelihood is worth quite a bit with this huge sum and blowing up with $1B is somebody else’s problem. This, IMO.

Poor Oroville; they are now saying that bankruptcy could be as soon as two years away! I hope there isn't a market crash because it could get really, really ugly in a lot of places. http://www.actionnewsnow.com/content/news/Oroville-Takes-New-Preventative-Measures-to-Avoid-Bankruptcy-in-Near-Future-480190303.html

3rd order effect: China, understanding the strategic importance of long term investment, picks up the slack, allowing it the distinction of being able to helicopter into developing countries with new medical discoveries it can give away to extend and cement its soft power in countries that are going to be relevant in geopolitics 20 - 30 years from now. We're in checkmate here folks, we just haven't figured that out yet. We got fat and lazy while the Chinese have been working to throw us off the high horse. It reminds me of the intro to Rocky 3, where we see that Rocky has lost himself to the glitz and glamour of his fame. TV commercials, magazine photoshoots, the "perfect" family Christmas and his face on merchandise everywhile Meanwhile we are introduced to Clubber Lang, a young fighter making his way up the rankings. We see him brutally knock out his opponents while Rocky is beating up a bunch of palookas we later discover were set up as tomato cans for Rocky to squash by his manager Mickey. And while we see Clubber Lang dedicate all of his time to improving himself to better his chances at his chosen profession, we see Rocky making appearances on The Muppet Show and shilling for American Express. Rocky had grown soft and the Rocky brand was more valuable with him beating up tomato cans than risking his title against legitimate competition. But sooner or later, if you don't take the fight to your competition, your competition will take the fight to you. Rocky couldn't duck Clubber Lang forever, and when he eventually did fight Clubber Lang he discovered that his match ups with the palookas hadn't prepared him to face real competition again. Ever since the Cold War ended, we've been like Rocky. We've been resting on our laurels and beating up palooka countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, while China has been investing in its domestic infrastructure, building up its soft power around the world and rising up the rankings. The day is coming soon that the US will get knocked out cold and be unable to answer the 10 count, and it's our own fault for letting our country fall apart. All that wasted money for wars could have been used to reinvest in America and make us more competitive, but I guess reinvesting in your economic moat is a tough sell when many people believe American Exceptionalism alone has imbued us with our gifts, and that philosophy has made us arrogant and lazy. We're in checkmate; when you're in checkmate, how can you win? You've already lost, and you can't win a game that you've lost. At least, not conventionally. But there is another alternative, famous in Go clubs around Asia... The Nuclear Tesuji. You flip over the board and the pieces go flying everywhere. It's total chaos, and the usual rules and expectations no longer apply because we're no longer playing the same game. China has been besting by building up their strategically important infrastructure. It's time we do the same, by issuing trillions of dollars worth of bonds to build up our own domestic infrastructure to catch up with China. And we need to do this while we still have Donald Trump in office, because he is uniquely qualified to deal with the next step of the operation. Being the first of the major powers of the world to default on its obligations to the others. Donald Trump has had six business bankruptcies so far, that is not an easy skill to hire for. And dare I say it's one we've NEVER had in the oval office before. We are going to build up our own domestic infrastructure with the money of foreign governments, and leave them holding the bag. It's Economic Judo, and it's something Trump is very familiar of pulling on his creditors. He can do the same thing for ours, but first we need to build as big of a foreign debt as possible. The more money we borrow, the more we make up for our cumulative trade deficit to these countries since free trade became the flavor of the day. We'll have had the benefit of decades of lower prices and we'll get the last laugh by pulling back all the money that has been sucked out of the pockets of American families by free trade with our Nuclear Tesuji. ScottHall for Secretary of State! ... at the very least: ScottHall for Anthony Scaramucci! 8) Thanks Jurgis. Stay tuned, because I have a lot to say on the matter of financial responsibility and how we should really be treating our multi-trillion unfunded liabilities. According to Stanford, here in CA we could be facing $1 trillion ALONE through our pension system. But the state is saying $150 billion unfunded, but guess what, they are also saying 7% returns from their pension system going forward. They haven't come even close, on average, over the past decade. And if those mediocre returns keep up, well, the numbers get really big, really quick. It is going to take some major financial ingenuity to solve these massive obligations we have made to ourselves. I voted John Chiang for Governor because he has been Treasurer or Controller since 2007, finding one rabbit after the other to pull out of the hat to keep us going. That is the sort of guy we are going to need to navigate the pension crisis. Oroville says the city is going to run out of money in 4 years, and then bankruptcy. Most cities in the state are in the hole big time, many thousands of dollars per resident. Too bad he is going to lose, nobody loves a technocrat anymore. Then we are going to be stuck with Gavin Newsom, who is a showboat, and most likely this guy John Cox who has campaigned for office 13 times and hasn't won a single one of them. John Cox has views that just cannot win in modern CA, and he has been turning the election into a base race so that he can coalesce support among conservatives to make it out of California's jungle primary alive. In CA, everyone running gets places in one giant pool of candidates. No separation by party. The top two vote getters in that pool then go on to the general election. It doesn't matter if it's a Republican and a Democrat, two Democrats, two Republicans, or even third parties/independents. So naturally this has led to the Republicans running to try to out Trump each other to be the one the conservative wing rallies behind and make it out of the jungle alive. Unfortunately, running a base race in a state where Republicans have 25% and Democrats have 44% is a sure way to lose a general election. So Goofy Gavin is going to be Governor, and this whole charade continues another four or so years... and then maybe the state turns into Newsom's Nightmare and he takes the blame for being the one holding the potato when the music stops. Maybe then the local Republicans will have their shit enough together to capitalize on the fallout and win the Governor's mansion for the first time since Schwarzenegger. Or maybe Gavin will just get replaced by another Democrat in the jungle primary and the Republican party stays as irrelevant as ever because of their refusal to budge on social issues. But one thing is for sure, we need someone with some financial sense running the state. They're bragging now about the $10 billion budget surplus but that surplus is going to be a drop in the bucket compared to what they need if the worst comes to pass. Or, god forbid, a recession comes and whacks the market and the pension's % funded status along with it.

3rd order effect: China, understanding the strategic importance of long term investment, picks up the slack, allowing it the distinction of being able to helicopter into developing countries with new medical discoveries it can give away to extend and cement its soft power in countries that are going to be relevant in geopolitics 20 - 30 years from now. We're in checkmate here folks, we just haven't figured that out yet. We got fat and lazy while the Chinese have been working to throw us off the high horse. It reminds me of the intro to Rocky 3, where we see that Rocky has lost himself to the glitz and glamour of his fame. TV commercials, magazine photoshoots, the "perfect" family Christmas and his face on merchandise everywhere. Meanwhile we are introduced to Clubber Lang, a young fighter making his way up the rankings. We see him brutally knock out his opponents while Rocky is beating up a bunch of palookas we later discover were set up as tomato cans for Rocky to squash by his manager Mickey. And while we see Clubber Lang dedicate all of his time to improving himself to better his chances at his chosen profession, we see Rocky making appearances on The Muppet Show and shilling for American Express. Rocky had grown soft and the Rocky brand was more valuable with him beating up tomato cans than risking his title against legitimate competition. But sooner or later, if you don't take the fight to your competition, your competition will take the fight to you. Rocky couldn't duck Clubber Lang forever, and when he eventually did fight Clubber Lang he discovered that his match ups with the palookas hadn't prepared him to face real competition again. Ever since the Cold War ended, we've been like Rocky. We've been resting on our laurels and beating up palooka countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, while China has been investing in its domestic infrastructure, building up its soft power around the world and rising up the rankings. The day is coming soon that the US will get knocked out cold and be unable to answer the 10 count, and it's our own fault for letting our country fall apart. All that wasted money for wars could have been used to reinvest in America and make us more competitive, but I guess reinvesting in your economic moat is a tough sell when many people believe American Exceptionalism alone has imbued us with our gifts, and that philosophy has made us arrogant and lazy. We're in checkmate; when you're in checkmate, how can you win? You've already lost, and you can't win a game that you've lost. At least, not conventionally. But there is another alternative, famous in Go clubs around Asia... The Nuclear Tesuji. You flip over the board and the pieces go flying everywhere. It's total chaos, and the usual rules and expectations no longer apply because we're no longer playing the same game. China has been besting us by building up their strategically important infrastructure. It's time we do the same, by issuing trillions of dollars worth of bonds to build up our own domestic infrastructure to catch up with China. And we need to do this while we still have Donald Trump in office, because he is uniquely qualified to deal with the next step of the operation. Being the first of the major powers of the world to default on its obligations to the others. Donald Trump has had six business bankruptcies so far, that is not an easy skill to hire for. And dare I say it's one we've NEVER had in the oval office before. We are going to build up our own domestic infrastructure with the money of foreign governments, and leave them holding the bag. It's Economic Judo, and it's something Trump is very familiar of pulling on his creditors. He can do the same thing for ours, but first we need to build as big of a foreign debt as possible. The more money we borrow, the more we make up for our cumulative trade deficit to these countries since free trade became the flavor of the day. We'll have had the benefit of decades of lower prices and we'll get the last laugh by pulling back all the money that has been sucked out of the pockets of American families by free trade with our Nuclear Tesuji.

Maybe there's hope for the old GOAT after all.

Margin of Safety is basically just an $800 copy of You Can Be A Stock Market Genius IMO. Both books cover a lot of the same sort of material, but I thought Greenblatt's was better. I enjoyed all the case studies. MoS is not bad necessarily. But there's not a lot of "new" in there to justify the price if you already have had a broad exposure to value philosophy.

It's not specifically for self marketing, but I recommend reading Tested Advertising Methods for marketing generally.

My #1 advice for learning to beat the market is diversification. I have >30 stocks and am up ~19% so far this year. There are risk benefits to diversification but also second order benefits. One of the biggest second order benefits is that because of wide diversification, it's not such a big deal if one or two of them blow up, allowing you to do more research and development positions. When I buy, I seldom ever put even 15% into any one stock. When I do it has to be an obvious winner for me. Most of my allocations are single digit. The reason why I like this style, as opposed to the concentrated style I used to employ, is that I kind of want one or two of them to blow up. I know that sounds strange, but I have found value in it. Every year I allocate a small amount of the portfolio to R&D investments in new styles I am not as familiar with. The idea is that by entering fields I don't know a lot about, I will probably take some beatings, but I will gain a lot of general knowledge too. And by doing so I may pick up insights to improve my investing style. This is how I finally got over my aversion to growth investing, starting with a very small investment in Amazon. From there it became a spiral and I have GOOG, FB and so many other growth stocks. They've been big winners for my portfolio. It's harder to do R&D positions when you're putting your whole stack on the line on a handful of securities. You get more exposure to your best ideas that way, certainly, but at some cost of internal development that may prevent you from expanding your universe of "best ideas." For those playing the long game, I like the diversification strategy. Over time I want to build as big of an investable universe for myself as possible, and so much of that comes down to exposure.