Morgan
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Posts posted by Morgan
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6 hours ago, dwy000 said:
I was really surprised at how much I enjoyed this book. It's part biography and part insider details of the take private transaction back in 2014. I originally bought it thinking it would be a rah-rah, run of the mill biography about how he overcame diversity through hard work and his own greatness, yada yada yada. But I don't think I've read a business biography since Snowball that was staying up late to read and couldn't put down. Dell's back and forth with Carl Icahn is worth the price in itself. He doesn't hold back about his views on Icahn right down to his wife's cooking.
I'd heard about his dorm room days starting Dell but I didn't realize how entrepreneurial he was from early teen years and this was despite being raised rich and against his parent's wishes.
Anyways, it's a great read and pretty good insight into the person as well. Highly recommend.
Agreed. I couldn't put the book down either. He really was a special young entrepreneur. Very, very few people are able to build a business like he did, particularly so young. Dell Computers was really innovating on the hardware side to lower costs and provide better machines. It's not surprising they've become so big.
Hiding the computers in his neighbors dorm when his parents visited? Classic! lol!
He really talked some shit on Icahn! Lol! The remarks on Icahn's wife were over the line, but Carl Icahn is fair game.
That being said, taking Dell private was pretty harsh on the small shareholders.
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Sounds interesting! Looking forward to your (or anyones) review!
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2 hours ago, Minseok said:
But what if you constantly liquidate your appreciation with a home equity line? It can be considered psudo cash as long as we can assume no long term permanent lost of market value in real estate.I suppose it is a balance, but I view that as wildly risky compared to having the mortgages paid off. Once the mortgages are paid off, you have so much freedom and ability to withstand an eventual downturn. Not to mention FCFs are higher with no mortgage payments.
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
Yea IDK. Ive long been fascinated by the Canadian market, but with US RE where it is, I dont have to worry about it cuz the value proposition is obvious and its not one that compels me to be buying in Canada. I would eventually like something off the grid in the New Foundland/Labrador area though. Probably a summer retirement home or something. But those remote bubblefuck places aint exactly expensive now anyway IMO. Its probably more expensive over a 10 years stretch doing the commutes for a seasonal home out there than actually owning it.
Like WTF, $300k? Actually its hockey dollars not even USD.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-14A-Pidgeons-Rd-Marystown-NL-A0E-2H0/2067469241_zpid/?
That place is cool looking. Very beautiful area too. The roads are supposed to be excellent for motorcycle rides. But you're totally right, that is a long way away!
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4 hours ago, Canalyst said:
As Gregmal alluded to, I believe the real attraction to RE is that there are few (maybe none) places where man-off-the-street can get 4x leverage at close to prime rates. This can lead to tremendous compounding, but also occasional disaster. If you are earning and saving, it's hard not to make a case for REITs where you can be buying across a cycle without sacrificing liquidity. You can even simulate the leverage through moderate use of margin or ITM options. Of course, you don't get the tax advantages of direct RE ownership, but I think those are relatively expensive when you consider the headache of being a sub-scale landlord.
Agreed, real estate gives a normal person access to (hopefully) safe leverage, and most importantly tons of control. There are so many ways to turn around a failing property. If you own stock, you can buy a good company, the market doesn't like and it crashes. If you add margin or options you can really lose it all real fast. Not to mention you have basically zero control.
That being said, it is time consuming to manage your own properties.
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46 minutes ago, gfp said:
With HVAC prices in my area rising (and the cost of R22 freon basically becoming cost prohibitive to keep old systems), I have been using these heat pumps from Mr. Cool (usually with a better discount than is offered at the moment.) They come with pre-charged line sets so it is up to you if you want to use a professional to put them in (not all pros will work with you on a self purchased system, I have a younger guy who is trying to get established - he'll work on anything). The only drawback I have found so far is that they don't have a central air handler unit that works for down-flow vertical installations yet - but one is supposed to be coming after some delay. These systems work great even without an electric heating coil (at least in the south). DC inverter, like a mini-split, so they scale up and down smoothly - a much better system than a typical all-or-nothing basic central air conditioner. And extremely efficient.
https://hvacdirect.com/mrcool-universal-36-000-btu-heat-pump-mdu18036.html
R-22 has had some pretty intense prices swings in the last 2 years or so. A 25lb can was $700 two years ago, $350 last summer and $500 now.
Personally I'm not a huge fan of the ductless mini-split systems or heat pumps, but I think that is because my area is too cold. Basically they stop working below 15F or maybe 0F. No heat is of course a problem in the coldest days of winter. Anyways, as supplemental AC, it is probably a good solution.
I have also found that pros will not work on self purchased ductless mini-split systems. Frankly I think they don't know how to fix them. I don't either though.
19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:Oh yea, HVAC stuff in general is the biggest scam. For shits, go into HD and Lowes and ask the guys at those stands how come its the only thing in the entire store where they dont tell you what it costs! They'll of course give you some scripted bullshit about each house being different, to which you ask them to just tell you what the standard equipment costs, and they cant answer. Or just Google 5 HVAC companies nearest your ZIP and ask for a ballpark estimate for a 1.5 ton unit. Again, a good chunk will refuse to give you a figure unless they can come out to your place and the rest, holy shit get ready to be amused. Probably anywhere from $4500-$9,000. Then go look up what you can buy a 1.5 ton for through one of the HVACdirect type places and laugh at these fraudsters.
True. No one wants to quote over the phone. In their defense quoting an entire system without actually seeing it is probably too hard. A 1.5 ton AC unit or 100k Btu furnace has a set price though. I buy from wholesalers like the installers do so prices are decent. I'd say HVAC companies charge 4-8x the cost of the parts, but parts really aren't everything. Having all the tools, work vans, knowledge, licenses, insurance, administrators, and inventory on hand, does cost money.
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5 minutes ago, Castanza said:
Yup it's crazy. Had a friend put in a new furnace and ac system this past summer. Changed me unit cost and a case of beer. Came to 3,100 for both...Mid range systems that would have easily cost me 8k if I hired someone.
@Morgan I agree that inflation is way higher than 7% in real terms. I've reduced product spend and my budget is still up like 15% this past year. CPI is fudged to no end.
CPI is totally fudged. They've made so many changes on how they calculate it over the years. It needs to stay within a certain range to make the politicians happy. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets modified over the next 1-3 years to put inflation back in 2% range.
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33 minutes ago, Longnose said:
My Costco Hotdog is still only a $1.50! Boom, now you can afford your 3x lumber
We have Sams club and two slices of pizza and a drink for $2.50 deal, but as designed, I usually spend a small fortune in there on other mildly unnecessary stuff.
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41 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:
-Buy the 10% off coupons for Home Depot and Lowe's
-Pay with gift cards bought from grocery stores using the 6% cash back credit cards (like Blue Cash Preferred) or from Staples with the 5% cash back Chase Ink Business Cash card
-If paying with credit card, at least pay with BofA cc with Platinum Honors for 5+% cash back for home improvement stores
-sign up ProRewards for Home Depot (or even share 1 account to boost savings faster)
I'm sure I missed some stuff but with the coupons and gift cards, etc, my margins are instantly better than the average landlord/contractor paying with regular credit card/cash.
This is probably not worth the squeeze but I never pay retail for fast food or chains out of principle! I collect all the flyers with coupons and leave it in my truck and/or wait for promos on the apps. My Subway flyer has coupon for $6 footlong.
Edit: I'm in California so definitely not low cost area!
Yea we have the store CC's with the 5% discounts. It helps of course, but I still want cheaper prices (and to complain! lol)
I agree on the food savings; not really worth it unless the coupons come to me with no work. I use them though.
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2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
If we continue to run at a 7% inflation rate by the middle of this year, the Fed will have to step up the interest rates much more than is currently anticipated. I am talking 5% or something like this.
7%? That is definitely not what I’m seeing. Everything I buy is up at least 15-20%. Building, HVAC supplies, tools, etc are up 35-100%. As we all know lumber went up 300%, but now it’s probably only up 100%. Oh joy.
Even Egg McMuffins are up 35% in my area. A Subway footlong is up 60%. (Don’t judge my eating habits too much lol)
From my perspective there has been a 20% decrease in quality of life.
It seems like with all the shipping delays and shortages, we will have another year of substantial price increases.
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9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Ouch - this seems pretty damning for the sponsor and maybe the entire business.
Paraphrasing:
"We have a time period of XX years so we finance out properties with this timeframe in mind. if the wheels come off after this (Due to higher interest rates) it's not my problem - it's the investors"
Self appraising properties is also a nice deal for he sponsor, not the investor.
I agree. The incentives are all wrong in these kinds of investment vehicles. The managers get paid to do deals, and the more and bigger deals they do the more they get paid no matter the outcome. What crap. The manager should only get paid when the investors get paid, whether it’s from the FCFs or from property sales. -
Thanks!
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5 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Yea at a certain point though you can either get raped by the politicians or you can play ball by paying people more in wages while looking good for doing it, AKA the Costco approach. If Wells or MacDonalds tries to automate everything, they will be destroyed via taxation and reputational damage. So it cant happen too quickly.
Separately, my own Wells story. Have one right in town. Went there to open a tenant saving account for one of my properties. Got there at 1 or so. Was told that the person who opens those accounts was over at her desk. After 5 minutes of watching her yap on the phone I am told that she is going on her lunch break and that I could come back in an hour. I asked if anyone else could help and was told the only other person who could do this was not in. Went next door to Chase and the private client lady did everything for me in under 10 minutes.
God, that is just plain stupid business.
Always support the customer. Sometimes you don’t get to eat because you’re too busy. And always take the money if a customer offers it! Jeez.
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Thanks! Will watch on my commute.
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Jeez. Maybe I should start managing other people’s money.
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8 hours ago, Gregmal said:
I agree, be cautious. But do so in a way where you leave yourself in the game. Where you can win even in the caution isnt warranted.
Here's Hussman...check out the long term record.
Caution is good, but how do you even keep a business open with performance like that? Wow. -
Didn’t they just start this program? Already it’s going south. Jeez.
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I just took a look at the plans and that looks nicer than the dorm and other places I lived in during university. I understand the need of adding more beds densely, and the rooms are small and basically only for sleeping. Once you wake up, you're in the community areas with what looks like quite a bit of natural light. I think it looks ok. One or two years in there wouldn't be there worst at all. It has elevators and AC!
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If my memory is correct, his pre-Buffett investments were primarily in real estate. I guess he wants to go back to his early days. Nothing wrong with that, but no windows is crazy.
At my dorm in university, I believe we had three toilets and three showers for 8-10 guys. It wasn’t an issue at all. Having only one toilet might have created issues. Particularly if it broke down. We didn’t have AC on the fourth floor either.
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@Brett I’m interested and just PM’d you!
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9 minutes ago, wabuffo said:
I thought I remembered Wabuffo recommending a service he subscribes to but it must have been in another thread. Maybe he can share that service name again.
Its not cheap - but you were paying for Bloomberg, so....
For basic equity research - I use Sentieo.
It's intelligent search capability is amazing.
- You can search keywords and it will run through SEC filings, Conference Call Transcripts, etc and bring up information relevant to your search (plus you can customize the search with some advanced features). I use it to find liquidations, buy-outs, spin-offs, etc. Or you can search "inflation" but only in conference calls for the last two months. Bingo! It will even do charts over time that show how many times inflation came up in a conference call.
- It can perform redline comparisons between the same document and show differences. Eg. compare the risk sections of the same company's 10-K year-over-year and highlight changes. I use it to compare mostly proxy statements and 10-K risk sections to flag changes to companies I own or am watching.
- it's ability to create customized financial tables with its TableX tool that pulls from company's financial filings saves me a pile of work. And after you're done you can throw the result into excel.
- of course, it does screening and plotting against hundreds of company financial variables....
And that's just scratching the surface of what I can do with it. I use it every day, many times a day.
wabuffo
Woah that sounds cool! -
On 9/15/2021 at 10:12 PM, Spekulatius said:
Not sure where this post should go. This is a WFH study conducted by Microsoft Results are not positive, Imo:
Basically sounds like WFH will be a competitive disadvantage for creative companies to a certain extent.
Companies that only require data entry for example, don’t need to have an employees randomly meeting and interacting. WFH may be a competitive advantage in these cases.
In Creativity, Inc, it talks about building the new cafeteria for Pixar and Steve Jobs required that it be set up so all employees would be in the same area and thus more likely to share different kinds of info, just like this study suggests.
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5 hours ago, Gregmal said:
… I remember in History classes thinking how crazy it was that back in the day the American Dream required saving for freaking months to by a ticket to make a weeks long journey on a fucking disgusting ship and then go through a shit hole like Ellis Island and then after that start from complete scratch without even having a place to stay, and then go find work in a non industrialized setting. Today you literally just have to get off your ass. Mental set is the key though.
Amen. America is the land of opportunity like no other. Work, work, work and it’s likely you’ll succeeded. -
On 3/20/2021 at 12:09 AM, aryadhana said:
Shame but our laws are designed to make sure people don't learn to steward their money and think about spending and investing. So much of our wealth is locked up so that we can't spend it until we are frail and weak, and the rules are such that this all has to be professionally managed. People would be better off if they could use all the money they are owed (in retirement plans, pensions, and future entitlements) to pay off their mortgages and invest what they have left over carefully. Fewer people would own stocks, but who cares? The people with enough money leftover after paying down a house and other expenses can take the time to learn a little about investing in stocks or indices; or learn a little about actually identifying honest investment advisors. Prices would be better and make more sense if people actually had to shop for things with their own money. This applies to assets and goods as well. You think maybe bandaids cost $500 at a hospital because no one -- absolutely no one, at literally any point of the supply chain -- is spending anything with their own money, and shopping around as a result?
It's an outrage.
Those programs were put in place because the average American is financially illiterate and financially irresponsible. Almost no one who receives a large one time sum makes good decisions with it. Let alone over their entire lifetime to fund retirement.
While these programs certainly have problems, they may be the least bad way to avoid the elderly living in the streets.
Agreed on hospital costs. No one even knows the price of anything. It’s totally stupid. If I were rich enough, I’d start a hospital with all the prices for everything listed on the wall and let the customers pick if they thought an extra scan was worth it or not. Prices for all surgeries and kinds of little stuff you never think of. Transparency is crucial for competition. I’d need some way to ban lawsuits but also incentivize good patient outcomes. I’m not sure if it’s possible to ban lawsuits other than forcing arbitration. Anyways, just my two cents lol
Zelman on housing
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Total side note - that is a great site!