Kraven
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Posts posted by Kraven
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The Godfather by Mario Puzo.
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To the Board:
Please post your buys and sells in a more timely manner. It would appear that not everything is being reported and what is being reported is only after some delay. We need to ensure that accuracy is maintained.
Thank you for your cooperation in this very important matter.
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Nice compilation! I read all of the 3+ endorsement books except for Schroeder and Lowenstein. All of them are highly recommended, as is 'Reminiscences of a stock operator'. A very entertaining read, not as much as a value investing book but as an eye-opener showing you how ruthless the market was (and is).
I just don't understand why people like the Marks writings. Undoubtedly he's a very good investor but the book reads like 'generic advice about value investing' by C. Obvious. ;)
Next on the list: Snowball.
I would have to disagree about Marks. I think his writing is incredibly sophisticated yet written in a clear, simple manner. It isn't "how to" stuff or "5 Stocks to Buy Now!", but it's about the thought process that goes into investing. Rather than explaining what I mean, I think everything can be summed up by this post on the always fantastic Oddball Stocks blog - http://www.oddballstocks.com/2014/05/the-language-of-investing.html
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These articles are great. You have to love them. He really digs into the fundamentals but doesn't know the names of many of the companies or what they even do. On the other hand, sure, these articles are total fluff but he isn't hurting anyone (well, other than the people reading it who think if he can do it so can they). I am sure he's one of the most popular guys in the retirement home.
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I used to live in the West Village in Manhattan, and Malcolm Gladwell must have lived in the area because I would see him on the sidewalk about once a month. One day I was on my way to work at about 9:30 or 10:00am and I saw him sitting down outside at a table at an Italian restaurant near my apartment eating a banana split for breakfast. I can't really take him seriously anymore.
Just out of curiosity, was it that he was eating ice cream for breakfast or was it the banana split specifically? Would a bowl of Rocky Road have been better? At least it wasn't Cherry Garcia or Chunky Monkey or something. In fairness, maybe he was just coming down from the high of an all night poetry jam session with his beatnik buddies and needed to take the edge off.
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I can hear Dee, the sarcastic sister from What's Happening, "Ooooo, you're in trouble!"
Wasn't that Tootie from Facts of Life?
Hmmm, maybe it was. Maybe Dee was "ooh, I'm gonna tell Mama". Well, "hey, hey, hey!"
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Buffet is pretty darn good, but I don't think he is infallible, he makes mistakes from time to time.
You're not getting into value investing heaven now. I can hear Dee, the sarcastic sister from What's Happening, "Ooooo, you're in trouble!"
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hmmm am I the only person on this board who like Marty Whitman
No, I like him. His books have some good points, but are written so poorly that I find they detract from the overall message. His books have so many issues I am not sure where to even begin. First, each book he writes essentially copies in huge blocks of text from previous books.
He doesn't even bother updating the examples in many cases. The one I find amusing is that for "use of creative finance in a corporate takeover" his example is one that I'm sure many are very familiar with. None other than how Leasco Data Processing took over Reliance Insurance in 1968. Because of course there is no more recent example of creative financing.
His acronyms and defined terms are truly annoying too. He uses them for everything, yet will continuously define them. He will sometimes use an acronym, then use the full term later in the same sentence and define it again.
He rants against Graham & Dodd yet attributes to them things that I believe only are discussed in the 1962 edition of Security Analysis. However, at times he will reference other editions, so there seems to be some cherry picking.
All complaints aside, there are some really good nuggets of information in his books, but you have to wade through the sewage to reach them.
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Note the word 'generation'; so I mean over 20-30 years or so. You picked the top of a bubble - when Coke traded for 80 times earnings, so yes, stock hasn't fared well since then, unsurprisingly.
IMO, for a stock to qualify it would have to return a 15% CAGR over twenty years or longer. 14% would suffice as well.
Since most of us will be alive for 20-30 more years why aren't our investing horizons much closer to this length of time?
I bring it up as KO has been a very poor investment for a large group of people, for a large period of time. KO didn't just spike up for a month or two. If you bought in 1996 to something like 2001, you have not really made that much of a return.
Even Buffet made a mistake with KO, he refused to sell at or near the top.
So I question your assertion that KO provides investors to make returns that will make them fabulously wealthy "forever until forever".
All good points. I can't imagine how someone can tell what the future holds for KO. Soda consumption seems to have peaked, at least in more developed countries.
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Security Analysis
The Intelligent Investor
Various articles on Schloss
I have read just about every investment book others have listed and while many others are very good and I enjoyed many of them and learned from them, these are the things that I still find influential.
Is there a good compiled collection of articles about Schloss somewhere? This was the best that I found so far:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677842-john-huber/1765091-who-is-walter-schloss
Please PM me.
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Security Analysis
The Intelligent Investor
Various articles on Schloss
I have read just about every investment book others have listed and while many others are very good and I enjoyed many of them and learned from them, these are the things that I still find influential.
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NTTAWWT
What the heck is NTTAWWT?
Not that there's anything wrong with that - Seinfeld.
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These polls are essentially financial porn. For rich members they give them a sense of satisfaction and pride, perhaps something to feed the ego a bit. For more aspiring members it's like a look behind the curtain to see what goes on on the other side. It's the board equivalent of reading People magazine to see which Hollywood star has the best beach body for summer or seeing pictures of Brangelina and their troop of kids as they jet set around the world. There is nothing wrong with any of this, but it should be called what it is.
Porn! Kraven, I don't think any of us here have any desire to see Ericopoly, Twcowfca, Indirectinvestor or Packer naked! You might want to know how BIG their net worth is, but the rest of us just aren't interested. What you do on your computer in the privacy of your own home is your business. Cheers! ;D
I would like to see Packer and Sanj. naked, while singing a duet.....
Guess, I'll have to wait until april 2015, patience young grasshopper, patience.
NTTAWWT
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These polls are essentially financial porn. For rich members they give them a sense of satisfaction and pride, perhaps something to feed the ego a bit. For more aspiring members it's like a look behind the curtain to see what goes on on the other side. It's the board equivalent of reading People magazine to see which Hollywood star has the best beach body for summer or seeing pictures of Brangelina and their troop of kids as they jet set around the world. There is nothing wrong with any of this, but it should be called what it is.
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What is the point of this? I participate in this board because I want to discuss intelligent investment ideas. Value Investing, for me, involves an element of modesty. A net worth poll is meaningless anyway, given it will be distorted by all sorts of factors - inheritances, job, investment success etc.
Should we all start posting pictures of our cars, of our houses, our spouses jewellry. Would you like to know how many times I flew first class last year?
How many? These are mission critical polls around here. I mentioned in a post the other day that it was about time for a net worth poll, along with a how old are you poll and a YTD returns poll. Glad someone is listening.
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Should we all start posting pictures of our cars, of our houses, our spouses jewellry.
Sure:
http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/66cd6f19fabf8c16da3c2e5c2d4f034c/0x600.jpg http://www.8thingstodo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Neuschwanstein-Castle-Germany.jpg http://mineralsciences.si.edu/_img/hope/hope.jpg Dude, you must be totally loaded! Looks like you have beaucoup bucks!
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FireEye, Inc
FEYE
Kraven, I think I won this contest.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=feye&insttype=&freq=7&show=&time=3
any reward?
I'll take your word for it. Your reward is you get to ask me that burning question you've always had about 80's pop culture and I will answer it. Now that's something.
This is a good thread. I like to know what people are buying the second they buy it. Hey, isn't it about time for someone to post a YTD returns thread? After that, it's time for another round of polls on how rich people are and how old they are.
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Thanks everyone! Really helpful! Can we change direction a little bit? I'd like to know what people are buying in the next 92 seconds.
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Haha is this a serious question?
We certainly like FST, but end of the week is an awfully tall order...
Like a heart attack. I thought this was a good complementary thread to the what are you buying today thread. It's good to know what's going to go up really soon. I always subscribe to the Will Rogers view that if a stock isn't going to go up, don't buy it, but on the flip side if it is going to go up and soon, we should buy it.
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If I want to make a lot of money by the end of the week, but preferably in the next couple of days, what should I buy? There seems to be a lot of good ideas floating around so I thought this thread could narrow it down.
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This was the follow up article to "People With Terminal Illnesses Feel Less Healthy Than People Without Them".
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Interesting that she says he would have spent over 500 hours on the Korean basket. I always assumed they were picked blind.
That doesn't sound right - if I recall correctly, when he talked about the Korean basket - he was given a Korean manual by Citibank
and spent a Sunday afternoon putting together a $100M basket of net/nets.
Maybe I have it wrong - but I thought that was the case.
Anybody else recall?
You are correct. I don't recall whether it was a Sunday afternoon, but it wasn't significant time.
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One question somebody asked, was, which company would you put your net worth into, apart from brk, which I thought was an interesting question. I think a number of detailed questions about his holdings would be interesting, eg IBM.
Furthermore, there are a range of possible questions about succession planning, apart from simply who will replace him. What will be the structure of the corporate entity given that the new CEO will not have the same relationship with his managers as Web did? What will happen to the float if a major player like Jain were to leave?
You are not allowed to ask these questions. In asking, you have proven yourself unworthy. In fact, I am fairly positive you are not allowed to even think them and that this activity is tracked and cataloged. How this is done or for what purposes I do not know.
I Could Use a Mentor
in General Discussion
Posted
You do not need a mentor. Follow these 10 steps and you will ensure your place in the value investor hall of fame.
1. Be able to converse in Sanskrit.
2. Get an "I luv WEB" tattoo.
3. Develop a working knowledge of Shawshank Redemption.
4. Be a playa.
5. Be able to lip sync effectively to Wham's "Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go".
6. Post any thought you have on this board the second you have it.
7. Understand that one of "turnarounds never turn", "better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price" and "growth and value are joined at the hip" can be used as a reply 100% of the time in any investing conversation and with that you will give your opponent a KO and you can walk away (see #4 for how you should act in that situation).
8. Publicly* denounce the use of "LOL" and emoticons except in the case of an emergency.
9. Realize that concentrated positions are by far the best way to invest and share this point loudly and proudly.
10. Use the word "guru" to refer to any well known value investor.
You are now ready to walk among the value gods. Hopefully this advice is not just useful for you, but for others as well.
* In front of 50 or more persons.