Kraven
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Posts posted by Kraven
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Maybe the question should be based on buying with a 10 year voluntary lock-up period. I think that gets you through the intellectual exercise without making you watch Doomsday Preppers right before going to bed for the night.
CorpRaider-I think that's a great idea if anyone wants to answer the question in a way that allows for more flexibility I think that would be awesome and also maybe a good way for people to feel a bit less threatened by the title.
Whew! I did feel pretty threatened by it all so am glad we can talk about it in a slightly different way. I was really stressed while eating my lunch and didn't enjoy it as much as I might have otherwise.
I think phrasing it as a 10 year voluntary lockup is good though. It really gets to the heart of the matter. I will maintain, however, that there isn't a soul who would take that trade. Buffett would say he would, but that he can't because of insurance regulatory issues. If but for that. For all those who believe that there are legions of people waiting to lock up their money for 10 years voluntarily they should talk to any of the thousands of hedge funds who practically go to war on 1 year or so lockups. I know, I know, value investors are a different breed.
I would think there are any number of investment banks and hedge funds who would gladly enter into a trade where they get your money today and provide you the economics on one of these stocks 10 years from now. You should ask around. You could get your wish.
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No offence, but the premise is ridiculous.
Its a little like getting a terminal illness, and having your body put into cryogenic hibernation until a cure is found. You have to trust that a cure will be found, ; that other diseases wont evolve in the meantime that no one thinks to inoculate you from; that your provider pays the power bill; that your freezer company stays in business; that they remember to revive you; that the hill under which you are frozen doesn't get blown up, confiscated, or otherwise taken over; that the software that manages your freeze doesn't get hacked or otherwise glitch up.
In this premise you are trying to predict the future which cannot be done, as we all know. Guns, ammo, people I trust, and our own compound, with solar panels, windmills, and heat pumps for power. I thought of a stream for hydro but that can be easily diverted.
I respectfully disagree. I mention ten years, not 200 or something. Some of the best investors have held onto investments for close to and occasionally ten years, especially Buffett. Furthermore, and as an aside---feel free to mention some of the qualities that you would look for in a business that you would consider holding for that time frame.
David
There's a huge difference between holding something by choice and holding because you have to. This question reminds me of those stunts by guys like David Blaine where he is sitting in a glass enclosed case in NYC suspended in the air without food or water for 3 days or whatever it is. He comes down and says "see, I did it!" Of course anytime throughout the process he could have pounded on the wall and asked to be taken down. Big difference between that and being put in that cage without any ability to come down until the end of the event.
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Does Angels centrefielder Mike Trout trade on a stock exchange somewhere? 8)
That one would be nice. I'd put money on him and Bryce Harper. Not because I think Harper has really done all that much (and certainly is no where near Trout), but at 22 I fully expect him to at least be around and doing well in 10 years.
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None because if the market was closed for 10 years it would mean we are living in a fundamentally different world than we are in now. We'd all be looking for guns, ammo and canned goods.
I firmly believe that if somehow there was a situation where an announcement was made that the market had to close for 10 years, but nothing else would be different, that there isn't a soul who would continue holding stocks. The uncertainty would be too great. I mean how do you know they would reopen?
Edit: ironically, many of the people jumping at the opportunity to hold stocks for 10 years with the market closed are some of the same people who don't like certain stocks because they're dark or too illiquid. And that's with a market.
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Can someone explain to me the politics of the federal reserve. Bullard comes out today and suggests QE should/could be continued. The markets stop falling, and are maybe rallying.
So, Do Bullard's statements mean that the fed is in agreement on this possibility?
Is he going counter to Yellen's statements, or is this just a pre agreed upon something or other between him and the others.
Yellen"okay James, I will talk about pushing off rate increases but stopping QE. In case that doesn't work, you say sometime next week like 'we could continue with the bond buying'"
Bullard "Sounds good, it worked last year before Ben stepped down."
Obviously I am baffle gabbed by Orwellian doublespeak.
It means nothing. He's President of the St Louis Fed. He isn't even on the FOMC this year so he doesn't vote. Each individual Fed president goes out periodically (some more than others) and shoots their mouth off. It's likely his own opinions only. It's not worth too much other than the fact that he's traditionally hawkish so if he is saying let's maybe keep some QE that might be viewed that other hawks feel similarly and are open to cracking the door back open.
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Daphne is referring to the hedges, presumably.
So they've been dead wrong for the last 6 years, but the market declines over a week & 1/2 period, and now they're right? This thread is ridiculous.
I know you don’t like how Fairfax operates. And that’s fine!
But let me ask you a question: if the market stays in some kind of turmoil for a while (a few months), if US government bond yields keep going down, and if Fairfax share price declines with the overall market, don’t you think it could be worth buying at least some shares before they announce 2014 year end results?
Gio
Why point was more about the point of this thread than the way the company operates. It's like someone buying JC Penny at $40, and then boasting that they were right when 2-years later the stock goes from $5 to $7.
Diogenes can stop his search now, put down his lantern and rest. Here is an honest man.
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Well, Connie Francis would agree with you I suppose. I'm not sure about others, but Connie Francis for sure.
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We should NOT be looking at their performance on a YoY basis but using a 5 year yardstick similar to Buffett. As Graham eloquently said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Tks,
S
I'm not sure if Ted Weschler is having a good year being that he a a pretty considerable position in GM which has been terrible this year
Isn't it something like a 7 year yardstick now? I thought he changed it when 5 years didn't work so well. Maybe I'm wrong.
Just curious - why the anti-Buffett under tone in many of your posts? Is that you, Alice?
-CM
I don't like Cherry Coke. My publisher will not permit me to confirm or deny that I am that person.
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We should NOT be looking at their performance on a YoY basis but using a 5 year yardstick similar to Buffett. As Graham eloquently said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Tks,
S
I'm not sure if Ted Weschler is having a good year being that he a a pretty considerable position in GM which has been terrible this year
Isn't it something like a 7 year yardstick now? I thought he changed it when 5 years didn't work so well. Maybe I'm wrong.
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Republicans and Democrats (though neither have IPO'd yet) ;)
If there was only a way to make money off that. ;)
Running for election is one way.
How about a moral way for someone who doesn't feel comfortable making a living through theft, extortion, and violence?
And since someone already brought up politics I'll add to the duopoly list:
Jesus vs. Mohammad.
What about -
Hall and Oates
Captain and Tennille
Seals and Crofts
England Dan and John Ford Coley
Loggins and Messina
Donny and Marie
Sonny and Cher
Jan and Dean
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Uh oh...
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/midtown/article2684594.html
Both works were acquired for the site, a vacant block at Biscayne and Northeast 26th Street in the Edgewater neighborhood, by Bruce Berkowitz, founder of Miami-based Fairholme Capital Management. Berkowitz, dubbed “the megamind of Miami” by Fortune magazine for his market-beating proficiency at contrarian investing, has been quietly assembling land since last year to build a new headquarters for his company and foundation that would also incorporate a public showcase for art.Berkowitz said he chose Edgewater because of the National YoungArts Foundation’s move in 2012 into the historically and architecturally iconic former Bacardi headquarters five blocks to the south on Biscayne Boulevard. He had been contemplating the idea of a building that could combine his business and art interests in one location when he found out “by accident” that the Turrell and Serra works were available, Berkowitz said.
“We wanted to create a unique space that combined both work and play — business and arts and education,” Berkowitz said. “We thought about the idea of how to mix that all together, and there was an opportunity to purchase the works, and then we started to think about the building in relationship to the works.”
Maybe Berkowitz should spend more time figuring out how he is going to somehow get above water in Sears Holdings.
The whole monument to himself thing strikes me as odd especially since I believe he said he prefers to work from home. I remember a picture of him in his home office with a lap dog or something.
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Happened to see this article in today's Washington Post in case anyone is interested.
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Wow, I feel embarrassed for him actually watching this. It's like when that corner gets turned and all of a sudden Grandpa is standing there in a room full of people announcing "hey everyone! I've got no pants on!" The next week he is in a home.
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BAC's stock price will be 19.29 if it rises another 2 points. Now if that isn't an ominous sell signal, I don't know what is.
That is very ominous indeed. I have also heard that every time there was a crash it came in a year with 12 months. We have 12 months in the year now. Food for thought.
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With apologies to The Clash,
Darlin you got to let me know
Should I hold or should I sell
If your payout ratio is going up
I’ll hold here till the end of time
So you got to let me know
Should I hold or should I sell
It’s always tease tease tease
You’re happy when I’m on my knees
One day is red and the next is black
So if you want me off your register
Well come on an’ let me know
Should I hold or should I sell
Should I hold or should I sell
Should I hold or should I sell
If I sell there will be trouble
An’ if I hold will be a double
So come on and let me know
How are you going to work in "should I cool it or should I blow"? Seems like you left off right before that . . . .
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[amazonsearch]Bankers Town[/amazonsearch]
This is a financial thriller (fiction) written by an ex-English banker and, I believe, first time author. I found it surprisingly good and enjoyable. The book is generally well written. There are two primary time lines in the story (the main character's present and his past - how he got to where he is today) and I did find it a little awkward at first the way the author weaves the two together, but either I got used to it or he got better at it as the book goes on. People who want to get a feel for what it's like inside an investment bank and in the securitization market, and just anyone who enjoys a good novel, might find this of interest.
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Coffee.
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The Four Pillars of Investing by Bernstein. This is the book I recommend to most friends and by far the best book on indexing I read. The author wrote this book because his earlier book the intelligent asset allocator is hard to read for beginners.
Vinod
Yes, it's good and much easier than his other book, but I would say it still really isn't as straightforward for a beginner. I'd still go with something like the Boglehead's Book.
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I recently was asked by a friend of one of my family members about what they should do as far as investing goes? I talked a little with them and based on their personality and the amount of money they had, I think an index fund is the best option for them.
I want to recommend a book to them about index funds so they have some grounding if the market ever goes down. I figure recommending one of Bogle's many books is probably the way to go, but I have no idea which one is the best. Plus, I've read some of Bogle's non-indexing related books, and they have a tendency to be hard to chew. Does anyone know of one of his books that's easy enough to read that your typical, let's say, People magazine reader could read it?
Thanks in advance!
PS- To stop the argument before it begins, I pick my own investments myself (as I'm sure many of you know). So I understand that the market is inefficient in places and you can take advantage of it. However, after assessing my family's friend's personality and financial sophistication, they will be best served by an index fund. So please don't tell me they should be in individual stocks. Sorry to be blunt.
I'd go with something like The Boglehead's Guide to Investing by Larimore and Lindauer. Not by Bogle himself, but by the King Boglehead, Taylor Larimore (and others).
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I just got back from the mall. I went to the record store and there was a big poster with BB promoting a huge tour with Pearl Jam, Soundgarden and Green Day. It's going to be awesome! If you're interested you have to line up for tickets at your local Ticketmaster outlet when they become available.
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Needless to say, it's going to look a bit awkward tucked into the pocket of skinny-jeans (the skin-tight stretch denim variety). Shouldn't take long to wear holes into them.
Us Blackberry users have a holster, thank you very much. It sits nicely on our sides, out of the way not like those tween girls shove them in their back pocket with the sparkly cover.
Much like the pocket protectors from days gone by................. 8)
Oh yeah, holsters, that's right. It is nice when your pager goes off you can grab your blackberry out of its holster and return the call right then and there without needing to go find a pay phone.
I heard they're teaming up with Sears on this, Chen was quoted as saying "We think two failures will make a success when we work together." They'll be offering a Blackberry app that makes ordering from the Sears catalog a lot easier.
Users have also been asking for a CB Radio app so they can keep in touch with the ever changing traffic conditions reported real-time by truckers...
I heard about that partnership with Sears. I think they are going to be doing a promotion where if you buy the new BB they give you a K-Mart.
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Needless to say, it's going to look a bit awkward tucked into the pocket of skinny-jeans (the skin-tight stretch denim variety). Shouldn't take long to wear holes into them.
Us Blackberry users have a holster, thank you very much. It sits nicely on our sides, out of the way not like those tween girls shove them in their back pocket with the sparkly cover.
Much like the pocket protectors from days gone by................. 8)
Oh yeah, holsters, that's right. It is nice when your pager goes off you can grab your blackberry out of its holster and return the call right then and there without needing to go find a pay phone.
Does anyone know if the new BB has push email capability? What about a calendar and contacts? If you can get on the information superhighway are you able to check stock quotes, sports scores and the weather from it? A device that did all of those things would do really well I think. Someday . . . someday.
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It sounds good to me, but my office computer is a Commodore 64 and it takes a bit of time to navigate the world wide web and the information superhighway.
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I guess too that I have never quite understood the superstar status attributed to FFH. They strike me as being like a band like Bon Jovi. They were once pretty good and superstar status somehow got attached to them and has never worn off even though it's coming up on 30 years since Wanted Dead or Alive and the rest of Slippery When Wet came out.
Billionaire's Apprentice
in Books
Posted
Finally got around to this one. I agree with the other recommendations. It was quite good and enjoyable. Worth reading.